The Quebec general election on October 5 features a fragmented contest among five parties, with the CAQ under new leader Christine Fréchette facing significant headwinds after eight years in power and the resignation of François Legault. Recent polling shows the CAQ recovering to 24-27% support, closing in on the Parti Québécois (28-30%) amid voter concerns over U.S. tariffs and trade instability, where the incumbent’s governing experience provides an edge in key regions like Montreal suburbs and parts of Quebec City. Seat projections from models such as 338Canada and Qc125 place the CAQ in a wide range around 25-35 seats, reflecting vote splitting among federalist parties, PCQ strength in the capital region, and redistribution to 127 ridings. Early campaign dynamics and ongoing volatility support trader emphasis on outcomes of 30 or more seats as the most probable band while acknowledging substantial downside risk from further erosion.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateQuebec General Election: CAQ # Seats?
Quebec General Election: CAQ # Seats?
30+ 45%
25-29 20%
20-24 11%
10-14 8%
BAGO
BAGO
Oct 5, 2026
<5
2%
5-9
6%
10-14
8%
15-19
6%
20-24
11%
25-29
20%
30+
36%
30+ 45%
25-29 20%
20-24 11%
10-14 8%
BAGO
BAGO
Oct 5, 2026
<5
$511 Vol.
2%
5-9
$917 Vol.
6%
10-14
$2,618 Vol.
8%
15-19
$1,068 Vol.
6%
20-24
$638 Vol.
11%
25-29
$1,042 Vol.
20%
30+
$1,702 Vol.
36%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).The Quebec general election on October 5 features a fragmented contest among five parties, with the CAQ under new leader Christine Fréchette facing significant headwinds after eight years in power and the resignation of François Legault. Recent polling shows the CAQ recovering to 24-27% support, closing in on the Parti Québécois (28-30%) amid voter concerns over U.S. tariffs and trade instability, where the incumbent’s governing experience provides an edge in key regions like Montreal suburbs and parts of Quebec City. Seat projections from models such as 338Canada and Qc125 place the CAQ in a wide range around 25-35 seats, reflecting vote splitting among federalist parties, PCQ strength in the capital region, and redistribution to 127 ridings. Early campaign dynamics and ongoing volatility support trader emphasis on outcomes of 30 or more seats as the most probable band while acknowledging substantial downside risk from further erosion.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Binuksan ang Market: Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ET
Volume
$8,497Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 5, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).The Quebec general election on October 5 features a fragmented contest among five parties, with the CAQ under new leader Christine Fréchette facing significant headwinds after eight years in power and the resignation of François Legault. Recent polling shows the CAQ recovering to 24-27% support, closing in on the Parti Québécois (28-30%) amid voter concerns over U.S. tariffs and trade instability, where the incumbent’s governing experience provides an edge in key regions like Montreal suburbs and parts of Quebec City. Seat projections from models such as 338Canada and Qc125 place the CAQ in a wide range around 25-35 seats, reflecting vote splitting among federalist parties, PCQ strength in the capital region, and redistribution to 127 ridings. Early campaign dynamics and ongoing volatility support trader emphasis on outcomes of 30 or more seats as the most probable band while acknowledging substantial downside risk from further erosion.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$8,497Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 5, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Quebec general election on October 5 features a fragmented contest among five parties, with the CAQ under new leader Christine Fréchette facing significant headwinds after eight years in power and the resignation of François Legault. Recent polling shows the CAQ recovering to 24-27% support, closing in on the Parti Québécois (28-30%) amid voter concerns over U.S. tariffs and trade instability, where the incumbent’s governing experience provides an edge in key regions like Montreal suburbs and parts of Quebec City. Seat projections from models such as 338Canada and Qc125 place the CAQ in a wide range around 25-35 seats, reflecting vote splitting among federalist parties, PCQ strength in the capital region, and redistribution to 127 ridings. Early campaign dynamics and ongoing volatility support trader emphasis on outcomes of 30 or more seats as the most probable band while acknowledging substantial downside risk from further erosion.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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