**Ongoing US sanctions, naval blockade effects, and renewed military tensions have driven the free-market USD/IRR rate to record highs near or above 2.1 million rials per dollar in late August 2026, supporting strong trader consensus around elevated levels by end-September.** Escalating measures under the Trump administration, including Operation Economic Outcast and targeted actions against oil-smuggling networks, have sharply curtailed Iran’s crude exports—falling more than 80% year-over-year in some estimates—with Central Bank officials noting inflows near zero. Additional pressure stems from the UAE’s suspension of financial and trade links, reduced foreign-currency access, and high domestic inflation expectations that boost demand for dollars. A direct US strike on Iranian positions in the Strait of Hormuz on August 30 triggered an immediate further weakening on August 31, extending a multi-week slide. These dynamics—combined with structural factors like budget financing via money creation and limited export revenues—have kept the rial under sustained strain. With resolution tied to the end-of-September free-market rate and limited near-term diplomatic or export relief visible, market pricing reflects expectations that the rate will remain at or above recent peaks in the 2.1–2.2 million+ range.