Traders assign an 83.5% implied probability to no U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027 because recent developments show continued reliance on airstrikes, sanctions pressure, and intermittent diplomacy rather than ground operations. Following the February 2026 U.S.-Israel strikes on Iranian nuclear and military sites, a June memorandum of understanding established a framework for talks on nuclear inspections, sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz navigation, and reconstruction funding, with temporary U.S. sanctions waivers issued. Sporadic exchanges of strikes persisted into September 2026 around shipping lanes, yet officials on both sides have signaled interest in avoiding escalation ahead of U.S. midterms while deferring core disputes. An invasion would require congressional authorization, large-scale troop commitments, and a shift from current limited military and economic measures, none of which appear imminent in the short window remaining.