**Strengthening El Niño conditions and record ocean heat have driven the market’s 90.5% implied probability for an August 2026 global mean surface temperature anomaly of 1.38–1.41 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline.** Copernicus data show extra-polar sea-surface temperatures reaching a record 21.1 °C on 22 August 2026—exceeding the prior March 2024 peak—while a rapidly intensifying El Niño has pushed Niño-3.4 anomalies above +2.5 °C. Berkeley Earth’s July analysis placed the global anomaly at 1.56 °C, and preliminary tropospheric measurements (UAH) indicate continued warmth into August. This aligns with the long-term anthropogenic trend plus the current ENSO-driven boost. Full surface analyses from NOAA and NASA, plus any late-August model revisions, remain the key near-term variables that could shift the outcome.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоAugust 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)
August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)
1.38–1.41ºC 90%
1.42–1.45ºC 9%
1.34–1.37ºC 1.3%
>1.45ºC <1%
$20,482 Обс.
$20,482 Обс.
Aug 31, 2026
<1.30ºC
<1%
1.30–1.33ºC
<1%
1.34–1.37ºC
1%
1.38–1.41ºC
90%
1.42–1.45ºC
7%
>1.45ºC
<1%
1.38–1.41ºC 90%
1.42–1.45ºC 9%
1.34–1.37ºC 1.3%
>1.45ºC <1%
$20,482 Обс.
$20,482 Обс.
Aug 31, 2026
<1.30ºC
$657 Обс.
<1%
1.30–1.33ºC
$1,462 Обс.
<1%
1.34–1.37ºC
$3,129 Обс.
1%
1.38–1.41ºC
$4,484 Обс.
90%
1.42–1.45ºC
$9,219 Обс.
7%
>1.45ºC
$1,531 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.**Strengthening El Niño conditions and record ocean heat have driven the market’s 90.5% implied probability for an August 2026 global mean surface temperature anomaly of 1.38–1.41 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline.**
Copernicus data show extra-polar sea-surface temperatures reaching a record 21.1 °C on 22 August 2026—exceeding the prior March 2024 peak—while a rapidly intensifying El Niño has pushed Niño-3.4 anomalies above +2.5 °C. Berkeley Earth’s July analysis placed the global anomaly at 1.56 °C, and preliminary tropospheric measurements (UAH) indicate continued warmth into August. This aligns with the long-term anthropogenic trend plus the current ENSO-driven boost. Full surface analyses from NOAA and NASA, plus any late-August model revisions, remain the key near-term variables that could shift the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ET
Обсяг
$20,482Дата завершення
Sep 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.**Strengthening El Niño conditions and record ocean heat have driven the market’s 90.5% implied probability for an August 2026 global mean surface temperature anomaly of 1.38–1.41 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline.**
Copernicus data show extra-polar sea-surface temperatures reaching a record 21.1 °C on 22 August 2026—exceeding the prior March 2024 peak—while a rapidly intensifying El Niño has pushed Niño-3.4 anomalies above +2.5 °C. Berkeley Earth’s July analysis placed the global anomaly at 1.56 °C, and preliminary tropospheric measurements (UAH) indicate continued warmth into August. This aligns with the long-term anthropogenic trend plus the current ENSO-driven boost. Full surface analyses from NOAA and NASA, plus any late-August model revisions, remain the key near-term variables that could shift the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Обсяг
$20,482Дата завершення
Sep 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...**Strengthening El Niño conditions and record ocean heat have driven the market’s 90.5% implied probability for an August 2026 global mean surface temperature anomaly of 1.38–1.41 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline.** Copernicus data show extra-polar sea-surface temperatures reaching a record 21.1 °C on 22 August 2026—exceeding the prior March 2024 peak—while a rapidly intensifying El Niño has pushed Niño-3.4 anomalies above +2.5 °C. Berkeley Earth’s July analysis placed the global anomaly at 1.56 °C, and preliminary tropospheric measurements (UAH) indicate continued warmth into August. This aligns with the long-term anthropogenic trend plus the current ENSO-driven boost. Full surface analyses from NOAA and NASA, plus any late-August model revisions, remain the key near-term variables that could shift the outcome.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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