**Strong El Niño conditions combined with long-term anthropogenic warming drove August 2026 global surface temperatures to approximately 1.65°C above pre-industrial levels in the ERA5 reanalysis, the highest August on record and well above prior peaks.** Official monitoring from Copernicus and analyses confirm record sea-surface temperatures peaking at 21.1°C in late August, with heat release from a strengthening El Niño event in the tropical Pacific amplifying land and ocean anomalies. This places the month far into the >1.29°C bin, aligning with the 99.5% market-implied probability. Minor downward revisions in final datasets remain possible due to measurement uncertainty, but the margin over historical benchmarks makes shifts below 1.29°C highly improbable absent major data corrections.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоAugust 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
>1.29ºC 99.4%
1.25–1.29ºC <1%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
<1.10ºC <1%
$14,173 Обс.
$14,173 Обс.
Jul 31, 2026
<1.10ºC
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC
<1%
1.15–1.19ºC
<1%
1.20–1.24ºC
1%
1.25–1.29ºC
1%
>1.29ºC
99%
>1.29ºC 99.4%
1.25–1.29ºC <1%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
<1.10ºC <1%
$14,173 Обс.
$14,173 Обс.
Jul 31, 2026
<1.10ºC
$877 Обс.
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC
$999 Обс.
<1%
1.15–1.19ºC
$1,121 Обс.
<1%
1.20–1.24ºC
$2,099 Обс.
1%
1.25–1.29ºC
$2,783 Обс.
1%
>1.29ºC
$6,294 Обс.
99%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.**Strong El Niño conditions combined with long-term anthropogenic warming drove August 2026 global surface temperatures to approximately 1.65°C above pre-industrial levels in the ERA5 reanalysis, the highest August on record and well above prior peaks.** Official monitoring from Copernicus and analyses confirm record sea-surface temperatures peaking at 21.1°C in late August, with heat release from a strengthening El Niño event in the tropical Pacific amplifying land and ocean anomalies. This places the month far into the >1.29°C bin, aligning with the 99.5% market-implied probability. Minor downward revisions in final datasets remain possible due to measurement uncertainty, but the margin over historical benchmarks makes shifts below 1.29°C highly improbable absent major data corrections.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Обсяг
$14,173Дата завершення
Sep 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.**Strong El Niño conditions combined with long-term anthropogenic warming drove August 2026 global surface temperatures to approximately 1.65°C above pre-industrial levels in the ERA5 reanalysis, the highest August on record and well above prior peaks.** Official monitoring from Copernicus and analyses confirm record sea-surface temperatures peaking at 21.1°C in late August, with heat release from a strengthening El Niño event in the tropical Pacific amplifying land and ocean anomalies. This places the month far into the >1.29°C bin, aligning with the 99.5% market-implied probability. Minor downward revisions in final datasets remain possible due to measurement uncertainty, but the margin over historical benchmarks makes shifts below 1.29°C highly improbable absent major data corrections.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Обсяг
$14,173Дата завершення
Sep 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...**Strong El Niño conditions combined with long-term anthropogenic warming drove August 2026 global surface temperatures to approximately 1.65°C above pre-industrial levels in the ERA5 reanalysis, the highest August on record and well above prior peaks.** Official monitoring from Copernicus and analyses confirm record sea-surface temperatures peaking at 21.1°C in late August, with heat release from a strengthening El Niño event in the tropical Pacific amplifying land and ocean anomalies. This places the month far into the >1.29°C bin, aligning with the 99.5% market-implied probability. Minor downward revisions in final datasets remain possible due to measurement uncertainty, but the margin over historical benchmarks makes shifts below 1.29°C highly improbable absent major data corrections.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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