Trader consensus currently assigns a 78% implied probability that 2026 will avoid any qualifying extreme natural disaster, driven by the continued absence of a U.S. Category 5 hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, magnitude 8.5+ earthquake, or major meteor strike through late August. NOAA’s National Hurricane Center monitoring shows suppressed Atlantic activity linked to persistent wind shear and neutral-to-cool ENSO conditions, while USGS records confirm no seismic events exceeding magnitude 8.0 since the Venezuela doublet earlier in the year. Recent mid-year catastrophe reports indicate global losses remain below long-term averages, with fatalities concentrated in lower-threshold events such as heatwaves and regional floods rather than the market’s strict resolution criteria. With four months remaining, updated seasonal forecasts and ongoing seismic-volcanic surveillance represent the key variables that could shift sentiment.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
22% шанс
$243,297 Обс.
$243,297 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
22% шанс
$243,297 Обс.
$243,297 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus currently assigns a 78% implied probability that 2026 will avoid any qualifying extreme natural disaster, driven by the continued absence of a U.S. Category 5 hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, magnitude 8.5+ earthquake, or major meteor strike through late August. NOAA’s National Hurricane Center monitoring shows suppressed Atlantic activity linked to persistent wind shear and neutral-to-cool ENSO conditions, while USGS records confirm no seismic events exceeding magnitude 8.0 since the Venezuela doublet earlier in the year. Recent mid-year catastrophe reports indicate global losses remain below long-term averages, with fatalities concentrated in lower-threshold events such as heatwaves and regional floods rather than the market’s strict resolution criteria. With four months remaining, updated seasonal forecasts and ongoing seismic-volcanic surveillance represent the key variables that could shift sentiment.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Ринок відкрито: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Обсяг
$243,297Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus currently assigns a 78% implied probability that 2026 will avoid any qualifying extreme natural disaster, driven by the continued absence of a U.S. Category 5 hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, magnitude 8.5+ earthquake, or major meteor strike through late August. NOAA’s National Hurricane Center monitoring shows suppressed Atlantic activity linked to persistent wind shear and neutral-to-cool ENSO conditions, while USGS records confirm no seismic events exceeding magnitude 8.0 since the Venezuela doublet earlier in the year. Recent mid-year catastrophe reports indicate global losses remain below long-term averages, with fatalities concentrated in lower-threshold events such as heatwaves and regional floods rather than the market’s strict resolution criteria. With four months remaining, updated seasonal forecasts and ongoing seismic-volcanic surveillance represent the key variables that could shift sentiment.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Обсяг
$243,297Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus currently assigns a 78% implied probability that 2026 will avoid any qualifying extreme natural disaster, driven by the continued absence of a U.S. Category 5 hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, magnitude 8.5+ earthquake, or major meteor strike through late August. NOAA’s National Hurricane Center monitoring shows suppressed Atlantic activity linked to persistent wind shear and neutral-to-cool ENSO conditions, while USGS records confirm no seismic events exceeding magnitude 8.0 since the Venezuela doublet earlier in the year. Recent mid-year catastrophe reports indicate global losses remain below long-term averages, with fatalities concentrated in lower-threshold events such as heatwaves and regional floods rather than the market’s strict resolution criteria. With four months remaining, updated seasonal forecasts and ongoing seismic-volcanic surveillance represent the key variables that could shift sentiment.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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