Recent polls for the September 20 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election place Bündnis 90/Die Grünen between 15% and 18%, reflecting a fragmented five-party contest where the Linke, CDU, and AfD each hover near or above 18% while the SPD trails. This positioning stems from modest erosion since the 2023 repeat election amid gains by the Linke and AfD, alongside stable but unremarkable support for the Greens' environmental and urban policy platform under candidate Werner Graf. The narrow distribution of trader probabilities across the 14-20% bands captures this stability and the limited scope for sharp late movement. Final-week factors that could widen the range include turnout differentials among core voter blocs, performance in remaining debates or campaign events, and any visible coalition positioning signals that alter preference flows among center-left or progressive voters.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено14-17% 43%
17-20% 32%
<14% 23%
20%+ 3.7%
$26,991 Обс.
$26,991 Обс.
Sep 20, 2026
<14%
23%
14-17%
43%
17-20%
32%
20%+
4%
14-17% 43%
17-20% 32%
<14% 23%
20%+ 3.7%
$26,991 Обс.
$26,991 Обс.
Sep 20, 2026
<14%
$13,998 Обс.
23%
14-17%
$9,544 Обс.
43%
17-20%
$2,421 Обс.
32%
20%+
$1,028 Обс.
4%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by Grüne in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polls for the September 20 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election place Bündnis 90/Die Grünen between 15% and 18%, reflecting a fragmented five-party contest where the Linke, CDU, and AfD each hover near or above 18% while the SPD trails. This positioning stems from modest erosion since the 2023 repeat election amid gains by the Linke and AfD, alongside stable but unremarkable support for the Greens' environmental and urban policy platform under candidate Werner Graf. The narrow distribution of trader probabilities across the 14-20% bands captures this stability and the limited scope for sharp late movement. Final-week factors that could widen the range include turnout differentials among core voter blocs, performance in remaining debates or campaign events, and any visible coalition positioning signals that alter preference flows among center-left or progressive voters.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by Grüne in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by Grüne in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Ринок відкрито: Aug 20, 2026, 2:21 PM ET
Обсяг
$26,991Дата завершення
Sep 20, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 20, 2026, 2:21 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by Grüne in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polls for the September 20 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election place Bündnis 90/Die Grünen between 15% and 18%, reflecting a fragmented five-party contest where the Linke, CDU, and AfD each hover near or above 18% while the SPD trails. This positioning stems from modest erosion since the 2023 repeat election amid gains by the Linke and AfD, alongside stable but unremarkable support for the Greens' environmental and urban policy platform under candidate Werner Graf. The narrow distribution of trader probabilities across the 14-20% bands captures this stability and the limited scope for sharp late movement. Final-week factors that could widen the range include turnout differentials among core voter blocs, performance in remaining debates or campaign events, and any visible coalition positioning signals that alter preference flows among center-left or progressive voters.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by Grüne in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by Grüne in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Обсяг
$26,991Дата завершення
Sep 20, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 20, 2026, 2:21 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls for the September 20 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election place Bündnis 90/Die Grünen between 15% and 18%, reflecting a fragmented five-party contest where the Linke, CDU, and AfD each hover near or above 18% while the SPD trails. This positioning stems from modest erosion since the 2023 repeat election amid gains by the Linke and AfD, alongside stable but unremarkable support for the Greens' environmental and urban policy platform under candidate Werner Graf. The narrow distribution of trader probabilities across the 14-20% bands captures this stability and the limited scope for sharp late movement. Final-week factors that could widen the range include turnout differentials among core voter blocs, performance in remaining debates or campaign events, and any visible coalition positioning signals that alter preference flows among center-left or progressive voters.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання