ECB policymakers have maintained a hawkish stance amid elevated euro area inflation driven by Middle East energy shocks, with the deposit facility rate held at 2.25% after the June 2026 hike and markets pricing further tightening into September. Staff projections show headline inflation averaging near or above 2.5% for 2026 before easing toward the 2% target, while core measures and labor market resilience support the view that monetary policy remains only mildly restrictive. This environment leaves little room for rate cuts through year-end, as the Governing Council emphasizes data-dependent decisions without pre-committing to easing. A swift de-escalation in geopolitical tensions that sharply lowers energy prices or an unexpected growth slump could reopen the door to cuts, though current futures imply such outcomes remain low-probability.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено7% шанс
$31,829 Обс.
$31,829 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
7% шанс
$31,829 Обс.
$31,829 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.ECB policymakers have maintained a hawkish stance amid elevated euro area inflation driven by Middle East energy shocks, with the deposit facility rate held at 2.25% after the June 2026 hike and markets pricing further tightening into September. Staff projections show headline inflation averaging near or above 2.5% for 2026 before easing toward the 2% target, while core measures and labor market resilience support the view that monetary policy remains only mildly restrictive. This environment leaves little room for rate cuts through year-end, as the Governing Council emphasizes data-dependent decisions without pre-committing to easing. A swift de-escalation in geopolitical tensions that sharply lowers energy prices or an unexpected growth slump could reopen the door to cuts, though current futures imply such outcomes remain low-probability.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ET
Обсяг
$31,829Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.ECB policymakers have maintained a hawkish stance amid elevated euro area inflation driven by Middle East energy shocks, with the deposit facility rate held at 2.25% after the June 2026 hike and markets pricing further tightening into September. Staff projections show headline inflation averaging near or above 2.5% for 2026 before easing toward the 2% target, while core measures and labor market resilience support the view that monetary policy remains only mildly restrictive. This environment leaves little room for rate cuts through year-end, as the Governing Council emphasizes data-dependent decisions without pre-committing to easing. A swift de-escalation in geopolitical tensions that sharply lowers energy prices or an unexpected growth slump could reopen the door to cuts, though current futures imply such outcomes remain low-probability.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$31,829Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...ECB policymakers have maintained a hawkish stance amid elevated euro area inflation driven by Middle East energy shocks, with the deposit facility rate held at 2.25% after the June 2026 hike and markets pricing further tightening into September. Staff projections show headline inflation averaging near or above 2.5% for 2026 before easing toward the 2% target, while core measures and labor market resilience support the view that monetary policy remains only mildly restrictive. This environment leaves little room for rate cuts through year-end, as the Governing Council emphasizes data-dependent decisions without pre-committing to easing. A swift de-escalation in geopolitical tensions that sharply lowers energy prices or an unexpected growth slump could reopen the door to cuts, though current futures imply such outcomes remain low-probability.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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