Trader consensus on 2.0–2.5% U.S. GDP growth for 2026, with 56.5% implied probability, stems primarily from resilient third-quarter momentum and AI-fueled business investment that has offset the softer 1.5% annualized Q2 reading. Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracks Q3 expansion near 5.1%, while FOMC September projections place the 2026 median at 2.3% and private forecasts cluster around 2.1–2.2% annual averages. Strong consumer spending, broadening capital expenditures, and productivity gains have sustained activity near potential despite higher energy prices and geopolitical pressures. Balanced labor conditions and solid final sales support this range, though upcoming Q3 GDP data and inflation releases could influence year-end revisions.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено2.0–2.5% 56%
1.5–2.0% 19.9%
>2.5% 19.1%
<0.5% 5.2%
$70,556 Обс.
$70,556 Обс.
Jan 28, 2027
<0.5%
5%
0.5–1.0%
1%
1.0–1.5%
5%
1.5–2.0%
20%
2.0–2.5%
56%
>2.5%
19%
2.0–2.5% 56%
1.5–2.0% 19.9%
>2.5% 19.1%
<0.5% 5.2%
$70,556 Обс.
$70,556 Обс.
Jan 28, 2027
<0.5%
$8,071 Обс.
5%
0.5–1.0%
$17,681 Обс.
1%
1.0–1.5%
$4,330 Обс.
5%
1.5–2.0%
$8,654 Обс.
20%
2.0–2.5%
$13,266 Обс.
56%
>2.5%
$18,553 Обс.
19%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on 2.0–2.5% U.S. GDP growth for 2026, with 56.5% implied probability, stems primarily from resilient third-quarter momentum and AI-fueled business investment that has offset the softer 1.5% annualized Q2 reading. Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracks Q3 expansion near 5.1%, while FOMC September projections place the 2026 median at 2.3% and private forecasts cluster around 2.1–2.2% annual averages. Strong consumer spending, broadening capital expenditures, and productivity gains have sustained activity near potential despite higher energy prices and geopolitical pressures. Balanced labor conditions and solid final sales support this range, though upcoming Q3 GDP data and inflation releases could influence year-end revisions.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
Обсяг
$70,556Дата завершення
Jan 29, 2027Ринок відкрито
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on 2.0–2.5% U.S. GDP growth for 2026, with 56.5% implied probability, stems primarily from resilient third-quarter momentum and AI-fueled business investment that has offset the softer 1.5% annualized Q2 reading. Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracks Q3 expansion near 5.1%, while FOMC September projections place the 2026 median at 2.3% and private forecasts cluster around 2.1–2.2% annual averages. Strong consumer spending, broadening capital expenditures, and productivity gains have sustained activity near potential despite higher energy prices and geopolitical pressures. Balanced labor conditions and solid final sales support this range, though upcoming Q3 GDP data and inflation releases could influence year-end revisions.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$70,556Дата завершення
Jan 29, 2027Ринок відкрито
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on 2.0–2.5% U.S. GDP growth for 2026, with 56.5% implied probability, stems primarily from resilient third-quarter momentum and AI-fueled business investment that has offset the softer 1.5% annualized Q2 reading. Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracks Q3 expansion near 5.1%, while FOMC September projections place the 2026 median at 2.3% and private forecasts cluster around 2.1–2.2% annual averages. Strong consumer spending, broadening capital expenditures, and productivity gains have sustained activity near potential despite higher energy prices and geopolitical pressures. Balanced labor conditions and solid final sales support this range, though upcoming Q3 GDP data and inflation releases could influence year-end revisions.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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