Farsi Island, a small restricted IRGC Navy outpost in the Persian Gulf, remains under Iranian governmental and military authority amid the U.S.-Iran conflict that began in late February 2026. Recent U.S. strikes have targeted military assets on nearby islands including Larak (August 30) and others such as Qeshm and Kharg to counter threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping and mining preparations, yet these operations have focused on degrading capabilities rather than establishing occupation or transferring sovereignty. No verified seizures, landings, or changes in control have occurred on Farsi Island itself. Trader consensus assigns very low implied probabilities to loss of Iranian control by late August or September 2026, reflecting the island’s limited profile relative to larger chokepoint or export facilities and the absence of ground operations or diplomatic shifts that would alter primary authority over the territory.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоFarsi Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$177,597 Обс.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
<1%
September 30
2%
$177,597 Обс.
August 31
$168,378 Обс.
<1%
September 30
$327 Обс.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Farsi Island, a small restricted IRGC Navy outpost in the Persian Gulf, remains under Iranian governmental and military authority amid the U.S.-Iran conflict that began in late February 2026. Recent U.S. strikes have targeted military assets on nearby islands including Larak (August 30) and others such as Qeshm and Kharg to counter threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping and mining preparations, yet these operations have focused on degrading capabilities rather than establishing occupation or transferring sovereignty. No verified seizures, landings, or changes in control have occurred on Farsi Island itself. Trader consensus assigns very low implied probabilities to loss of Iranian control by late August or September 2026, reflecting the island’s limited profile relative to larger chokepoint or export facilities and the absence of ground operations or diplomatic shifts that would alter primary authority over the territory.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 20, 2026, 9:14 PM ET
Обсяг
$177,597Дата завершення
Oct 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 20, 2026, 9:14 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Farsi Island, a small restricted IRGC Navy outpost in the Persian Gulf, remains under Iranian governmental and military authority amid the U.S.-Iran conflict that began in late February 2026. Recent U.S. strikes have targeted military assets on nearby islands including Larak (August 30) and others such as Qeshm and Kharg to counter threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping and mining preparations, yet these operations have focused on degrading capabilities rather than establishing occupation or transferring sovereignty. No verified seizures, landings, or changes in control have occurred on Farsi Island itself. Trader consensus assigns very low implied probabilities to loss of Iranian control by late August or September 2026, reflecting the island’s limited profile relative to larger chokepoint or export facilities and the absence of ground operations or diplomatic shifts that would alter primary authority over the territory.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$177,597Дата завершення
Oct 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 20, 2026, 9:14 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Farsi Island, a small restricted IRGC Navy outpost in the Persian Gulf, remains under Iranian governmental and military authority amid the U.S.-Iran conflict that began in late February 2026. Recent U.S. strikes have targeted military assets on nearby islands including Larak (August 30) and others such as Qeshm and Kharg to counter threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping and mining preparations, yet these operations have focused on degrading capabilities rather than establishing occupation or transferring sovereignty. No verified seizures, landings, or changes in control have occurred on Farsi Island itself. Trader consensus assigns very low implied probabilities to loss of Iranian control by late August or September 2026, reflecting the island’s limited profile relative to larger chokepoint or export facilities and the absence of ground operations or diplomatic shifts that would alter primary authority over the territory.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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