Recent polling and voter data show that Republican support among Black voters has stabilized in the low-to-mid teens following notable 2024 gains, with economic pressures such as inflation and unemployment alongside policy shifts on voting rights and DEI programs creating headwinds that limit further expansion. These factors keep the 10–11% and 12–13% outcome bins closely matched in trader pricing, reflecting uncertainty over whether turnout patterns and modest preference changes among subgroups like Black men will persist into the midterms or face reversal from affordability concerns and Democratic mobilization. Historical baselines around 8–10% in prior cycles provide context for the current implied probability, while upcoming generic ballot surveys and primary results could widen separation depending on how economic indicators and candidate messaging evolve.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено10–11% 26%
12–13% 22%
8–9% 16%
<8% 10%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 6, 2026
<8%
10%
8–9%
16%
10–11%
26%
12–13%
22%
14–15%
9%
16–17%
6%
18%+
3%
10–11% 26%
12–13% 22%
8–9% 16%
<8% 10%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 6, 2026
<8%
$20 Обс.
10%
8–9%
$538 Обс.
16%
10–11%
$441 Обс.
26%
12–13%
$351 Обс.
22%
14–15%
$192 Обс.
9%
16–17%
$20 Обс.
6%
18%+
$91 Обс.
3%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Recent polling and voter data show that Republican support among Black voters has stabilized in the low-to-mid teens following notable 2024 gains, with economic pressures such as inflation and unemployment alongside policy shifts on voting rights and DEI programs creating headwinds that limit further expansion. These factors keep the 10–11% and 12–13% outcome bins closely matched in trader pricing, reflecting uncertainty over whether turnout patterns and modest preference changes among subgroups like Black men will persist into the midterms or face reversal from affordability concerns and Democratic mobilization. Historical baselines around 8–10% in prior cycles provide context for the current implied probability, while upcoming generic ballot surveys and primary results could widen separation depending on how economic indicators and candidate messaging evolve.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 2, 2026, 2:11 PM ET
Обсяг
$1,653Дата завершення
Nov 7, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 2, 2026, 2:11 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Recent polling and voter data show that Republican support among Black voters has stabilized in the low-to-mid teens following notable 2024 gains, with economic pressures such as inflation and unemployment alongside policy shifts on voting rights and DEI programs creating headwinds that limit further expansion. These factors keep the 10–11% and 12–13% outcome bins closely matched in trader pricing, reflecting uncertainty over whether turnout patterns and modest preference changes among subgroups like Black men will persist into the midterms or face reversal from affordability concerns and Democratic mobilization. Historical baselines around 8–10% in prior cycles provide context for the current implied probability, while upcoming generic ballot surveys and primary results could widen separation depending on how economic indicators and candidate messaging evolve.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
In the event that the resolution source reports numbers that are contain one or more decimal point, this market will resolve based on the result of rounding such a number to the nearest whole number.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Обсяг
$1,653Дата завершення
Nov 7, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 2, 2026, 2:11 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling and voter data show that Republican support among Black voters has stabilized in the low-to-mid teens following notable 2024 gains, with economic pressures such as inflation and unemployment alongside policy shifts on voting rights and DEI programs creating headwinds that limit further expansion. These factors keep the 10–11% and 12–13% outcome bins closely matched in trader pricing, reflecting uncertainty over whether turnout patterns and modest preference changes among subgroups like Black men will persist into the midterms or face reversal from affordability concerns and Democratic mobilization. Historical baselines around 8–10% in prior cycles provide context for the current implied probability, while upcoming generic ballot surveys and primary results could widen separation depending on how economic indicators and candidate messaging evolve.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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