Mike Quigley's long incumbency in the solidly Democratic Illinois 5th district, rated D+19 on the Cook Partisan Voter Index, underpins the 94.5% trader consensus for his victory in the November 2026 general election. All major forecasters classify the seat as safe or solid Democratic, consistent with his 38-point margin in 2024 and repeated primary wins, most recently defeating intraparty challengers in March 2026. Tommy Hanson secured the Republican nomination but faces structural barriers in a district where Democratic presidential performance exceeds national averages by wide margins. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unprecedented national partisan shift could alter the outcome, though none have materialized to shift current implied probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоIL-05 House Election Winner
IL-05 House Election Winner
$25,272 Обс.
$25,272 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Mike Quigley (D)
95%
Tommy Hanson (R)
5%
$25,272 Обс.
$25,272 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Mike Quigley (D)
$8,976 Обс.
95%
Tommy Hanson (R)
$16,296 Обс.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Mike Quigley's long incumbency in the solidly Democratic Illinois 5th district, rated D+19 on the Cook Partisan Voter Index, underpins the 94.5% trader consensus for his victory in the November 2026 general election. All major forecasters classify the seat as safe or solid Democratic, consistent with his 38-point margin in 2024 and repeated primary wins, most recently defeating intraparty challengers in March 2026. Tommy Hanson secured the Republican nomination but faces structural barriers in a district where Democratic presidential performance exceeds national averages by wide margins. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unprecedented national partisan shift could alter the outcome, though none have materialized to shift current implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Обсяг
$25,272Дата завершення
Nov 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Mike Quigley's long incumbency in the solidly Democratic Illinois 5th district, rated D+19 on the Cook Partisan Voter Index, underpins the 94.5% trader consensus for his victory in the November 2026 general election. All major forecasters classify the seat as safe or solid Democratic, consistent with his 38-point margin in 2024 and repeated primary wins, most recently defeating intraparty challengers in March 2026. Tommy Hanson secured the Republican nomination but faces structural barriers in a district where Democratic presidential performance exceeds national averages by wide margins. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unprecedented national partisan shift could alter the outcome, though none have materialized to shift current implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$25,272Дата завершення
Nov 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...Mike Quigley's long incumbency in the solidly Democratic Illinois 5th district, rated D+19 on the Cook Partisan Voter Index, underpins the 94.5% trader consensus for his victory in the November 2026 general election. All major forecasters classify the seat as safe or solid Democratic, consistent with his 38-point margin in 2024 and repeated primary wins, most recently defeating intraparty challengers in March 2026. Tommy Hanson secured the Republican nomination but faces structural barriers in a district where Democratic presidential performance exceeds national averages by wide margins. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unprecedented national partisan shift could alter the outcome, though none have materialized to shift current implied probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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