**Recent Missouri Supreme Court ruling on September 5, 2026, restored the 2022 congressional map for the November general election, preserving the Democratic-leaning boundaries of the 5th district around Kansas City.** This overturned the 2025 redistricting effort that had added rural Republican areas and split urban Democratic strongholds, shifting the seat from a projected GOP advantage to one favoring the incumbent. Emanuel Cleaver advanced unopposed in the Democratic primary, while state Sen. Rick Brattin won the Republican nomination. A pre-primary Kansas City Institute for Polling survey showed Cleaver leading a generic Republican 54%–39%. With the restored map in place, trader consensus now assigns the Democratic Party a 63% implied probability of winning the seat on November 3, reflecting the district’s underlying partisan composition and Cleaver’s long incumbency. The outcome remains subject to turnout patterns and any late campaign developments.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоMO-05 House Election Winner
MO-05 House Election Winner
$27,509 Обс.
$27,509 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
63%
Republican Party
32%
$27,509 Обс.
$27,509 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$10,924 Обс.
63%
Republican Party
$16,585 Обс.
32%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Recent Missouri Supreme Court ruling on September 5, 2026, restored the 2022 congressional map for the November general election, preserving the Democratic-leaning boundaries of the 5th district around Kansas City.** This overturned the 2025 redistricting effort that had added rural Republican areas and split urban Democratic strongholds, shifting the seat from a projected GOP advantage to one favoring the incumbent.
Emanuel Cleaver advanced unopposed in the Democratic primary, while state Sen. Rick Brattin won the Republican nomination. A pre-primary Kansas City Institute for Polling survey showed Cleaver leading a generic Republican 54%–39%. With the restored map in place, trader consensus now assigns the Democratic Party a 63% implied probability of winning the seat on November 3, reflecting the district’s underlying partisan composition and Cleaver’s long incumbency. The outcome remains subject to turnout patterns and any late campaign developments.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Dec 16, 2025, 12:08 PM ET
Обсяг
$27,509Дата завершення
Nov 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 16, 2025, 12:08 PM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Recent Missouri Supreme Court ruling on September 5, 2026, restored the 2022 congressional map for the November general election, preserving the Democratic-leaning boundaries of the 5th district around Kansas City.** This overturned the 2025 redistricting effort that had added rural Republican areas and split urban Democratic strongholds, shifting the seat from a projected GOP advantage to one favoring the incumbent.
Emanuel Cleaver advanced unopposed in the Democratic primary, while state Sen. Rick Brattin won the Republican nomination. A pre-primary Kansas City Institute for Polling survey showed Cleaver leading a generic Republican 54%–39%. With the restored map in place, trader consensus now assigns the Democratic Party a 63% implied probability of winning the seat on November 3, reflecting the district’s underlying partisan composition and Cleaver’s long incumbency. The outcome remains subject to turnout patterns and any late campaign developments.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$27,509Дата завершення
Nov 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 16, 2025, 12:08 PM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...**Recent Missouri Supreme Court ruling on September 5, 2026, restored the 2022 congressional map for the November general election, preserving the Democratic-leaning boundaries of the 5th district around Kansas City.** This overturned the 2025 redistricting effort that had added rural Republican areas and split urban Democratic strongholds, shifting the seat from a projected GOP advantage to one favoring the incumbent. Emanuel Cleaver advanced unopposed in the Democratic primary, while state Sen. Rick Brattin won the Republican nomination. A pre-primary Kansas City Institute for Polling survey showed Cleaver leading a generic Republican 54%–39%. With the restored map in place, trader consensus now assigns the Democratic Party a 63% implied probability of winning the seat on November 3, reflecting the district’s underlying partisan composition and Cleaver’s long incumbency. The outcome remains subject to turnout patterns and any late campaign developments.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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