Elon Musk’s September 11 statement that Grok 4.7 needs “a few more days” of reinforcement-learning tuning to address response-length penalties and task-management shortfalls is the main driver behind the market-implied odds. That followed his September 2 “10 days” forecast targeting September 12, extending xAI’s pattern of slippage after Grok 4.6 shipped on August 12. Trader consensus now clusters around September 17–23 releases, reflecting the model’s 2.1-trillion-parameter scale, SpaceX data integration, and competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic updates expected this month. Ongoing work on the 2.5-trillion-parameter Grok 4.8 adds further timing uncertainty while xAI has yet to publish official benchmarks or a model card.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоNext Grok Model (4.7+) released on...?
Next Grok Model (4.7+) released on...?
September 17 45.8%
September 18 41.4%
September 23 28.4%
No release by September 30 10.1%
$14,460 Обс.
$14,460 Обс.
Sep 17, 2026
September 17
46%
September 18
34%
September 19
10%
September 20
5%
September 21
24%
September 22
18%
September 23
28%
September 24
10%
September 25
<1%
September 26
<1%
September 27
<1%
September 28
10%
September 29
<1%
September 30
<1%
No release by September 30
10%
September 17 45.8%
September 18 41.4%
September 23 28.4%
No release by September 30 10.1%
$14,460 Обс.
$14,460 Обс.
Sep 17, 2026
September 17
$994 Обс.
46%
September 18
$726 Обс.
34%
September 19
$798 Обс.
10%
September 20
$768 Обс.
5%
September 21
$572 Обс.
24%
September 22
$524 Обс.
18%
September 23
$668 Обс.
28%
September 24
$518 Обс.
10%
September 25
$824 Обс.
<1%
September 26
$584 Обс.
<1%
September 27
$688 Обс.
<1%
September 28
$555 Обс.
10%
September 29
$557 Обс.
<1%
September 30
$712 Обс.
<1%
No release by September 30
$606 Обс.
10%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk’s September 11 statement that Grok 4.7 needs “a few more days” of reinforcement-learning tuning to address response-length penalties and task-management shortfalls is the main driver behind the market-implied odds. That followed his September 2 “10 days” forecast targeting September 12, extending xAI’s pattern of slippage after Grok 4.6 shipped on August 12. Trader consensus now clusters around September 17–23 releases, reflecting the model’s 2.1-trillion-parameter scale, SpaceX data integration, and competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic updates expected this month. Ongoing work on the 2.5-trillion-parameter Grok 4.8 adds further timing uncertainty while xAI has yet to publish official benchmarks or a model card.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ET
Обсяг
$14,460Дата завершення
Sep 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk’s September 11 statement that Grok 4.7 needs “a few more days” of reinforcement-learning tuning to address response-length penalties and task-management shortfalls is the main driver behind the market-implied odds. That followed his September 2 “10 days” forecast targeting September 12, extending xAI’s pattern of slippage after Grok 4.6 shipped on August 12. Trader consensus now clusters around September 17–23 releases, reflecting the model’s 2.1-trillion-parameter scale, SpaceX data integration, and competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic updates expected this month. Ongoing work on the 2.5-trillion-parameter Grok 4.8 adds further timing uncertainty while xAI has yet to publish official benchmarks or a model card.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$14,460Дата завершення
Sep 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk’s September 11 statement that Grok 4.7 needs “a few more days” of reinforcement-learning tuning to address response-length penalties and task-management shortfalls is the main driver behind the market-implied odds. That followed his September 2 “10 days” forecast targeting September 12, extending xAI’s pattern of slippage after Grok 4.6 shipped on August 12. Trader consensus now clusters around September 17–23 releases, reflecting the model’s 2.1-trillion-parameter scale, SpaceX data integration, and competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic updates expected this month. Ongoing work on the 2.5-trillion-parameter Grok 4.8 adds further timing uncertainty while xAI has yet to publish official benchmarks or a model card.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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