Meta’s Watermelon large language model remains in training as of early September 2026, driving trader focus on an October public release window after internal claims of GPT-5.5 parity on unspecified benchmarks using roughly 10x the compute of the prior Muse Spark (Avocado) model. Alexandr Wang highlighted these gains in July, alongside plans for coding and agentic upgrades, while Meta’s $125–145 billion infrastructure spend supports the scale-up. August reporting tied the model to a consumer Hatch agent platform launch, but no independent verification or official timeline has emerged amid rapid frontier iteration from OpenAI and Anthropic. Key near-term catalysts include any October announcement, benchmark disclosures, or slippage signals that could shift the 59% October and 79% November market-implied odds.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоMeta's "Watermelon" model released by...?
Meta's "Watermelon" model released by...?
НОВЕ
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
5%
October 31
59%
November 30
86%
$4,813 Обс.
September 30
$3,344 Обс.
5%
October 31
$1,046 Обс.
59%
November 30
$423 Обс.
86%
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta’s Watermelon large language model remains in training as of early September 2026, driving trader focus on an October public release window after internal claims of GPT-5.5 parity on unspecified benchmarks using roughly 10x the compute of the prior Muse Spark (Avocado) model. Alexandr Wang highlighted these gains in July, alongside plans for coding and agentic upgrades, while Meta’s $125–145 billion infrastructure spend supports the scale-up. August reporting tied the model to a consumer Hatch agent platform launch, but no independent verification or official timeline has emerged amid rapid frontier iteration from OpenAI and Anthropic. Key near-term catalysts include any October announcement, benchmark disclosures, or slippage signals that could shift the 59% October and 79% November market-implied odds.
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
Обсяг
$4,813Дата завершення
Nov 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta’s Watermelon large language model remains in training as of early September 2026, driving trader focus on an October public release window after internal claims of GPT-5.5 parity on unspecified benchmarks using roughly 10x the compute of the prior Muse Spark (Avocado) model. Alexandr Wang highlighted these gains in July, alongside plans for coding and agentic upgrades, while Meta’s $125–145 billion infrastructure spend supports the scale-up. August reporting tied the model to a consumer Hatch agent platform launch, but no independent verification or official timeline has emerged amid rapid frontier iteration from OpenAI and Anthropic. Key near-term catalysts include any October announcement, benchmark disclosures, or slippage signals that could shift the 59% October and 79% November market-implied odds.
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$4,813Дата завершення
Nov 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Meta’s Watermelon large language model remains in training as of early September 2026, driving trader focus on an October public release window after internal claims of GPT-5.5 parity on unspecified benchmarks using roughly 10x the compute of the prior Muse Spark (Avocado) model. Alexandr Wang highlighted these gains in July, alongside plans for coding and agentic upgrades, while Meta’s $125–145 billion infrastructure spend supports the scale-up. August reporting tied the model to a consumer Hatch agent platform launch, but no independent verification or official timeline has emerged amid rapid frontier iteration from OpenAI and Anthropic. Key near-term catalysts include any October announcement, benchmark disclosures, or slippage signals that could shift the 59% October and 79% November market-implied odds.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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