Incumbent Republican Andrew Garbarino holds an 86.5% implied probability in the NY-02 general election on November 3, 2026, reflecting the district’s consistent Republican lean on Long Island’s South Shore, his 2024 reelection margin exceeding 19 points, and forecasters’ Solid or Safe Republican ratings. Garbarino’s substantial fundraising edge—more than $3.5 million raised with over $3.4 million cash on hand—contrasts sharply with challenger Patrick Halpin’s lower totals and limited visibility. Both candidates advanced unopposed through June primaries, and no recent events, such as disputes over disaster aid, have altered the race’s fundamentals or shifted trader consensus. Halpin’s historical local government experience has not narrowed the gap in a district where structural advantages favor the incumbent.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоNY-02 House Election Winner
NY-02 House Election Winner
$17,705 Обс.
$17,705 Обс.
Nov 2, 2026
Andrew Garbarino (R)
87%
Patrick Halpin (D)
14%
$17,705 Обс.
$17,705 Обс.
Nov 2, 2026
Andrew Garbarino (R)
$7,164 Обс.
87%
Patrick Halpin (D)
$10,541 Обс.
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Andrew Garbarino holds an 86.5% implied probability in the NY-02 general election on November 3, 2026, reflecting the district’s consistent Republican lean on Long Island’s South Shore, his 2024 reelection margin exceeding 19 points, and forecasters’ Solid or Safe Republican ratings. Garbarino’s substantial fundraising edge—more than $3.5 million raised with over $3.4 million cash on hand—contrasts sharply with challenger Patrick Halpin’s lower totals and limited visibility. Both candidates advanced unopposed through June primaries, and no recent events, such as disputes over disaster aid, have altered the race’s fundamentals or shifted trader consensus. Halpin’s historical local government experience has not narrowed the gap in a district where structural advantages favor the incumbent.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ET
Обсяг
$17,705Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Andrew Garbarino holds an 86.5% implied probability in the NY-02 general election on November 3, 2026, reflecting the district’s consistent Republican lean on Long Island’s South Shore, his 2024 reelection margin exceeding 19 points, and forecasters’ Solid or Safe Republican ratings. Garbarino’s substantial fundraising edge—more than $3.5 million raised with over $3.4 million cash on hand—contrasts sharply with challenger Patrick Halpin’s lower totals and limited visibility. Both candidates advanced unopposed through June primaries, and no recent events, such as disputes over disaster aid, have altered the race’s fundamentals or shifted trader consensus. Halpin’s historical local government experience has not narrowed the gap in a district where structural advantages favor the incumbent.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$17,705Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Andrew Garbarino holds an 86.5% implied probability in the NY-02 general election on November 3, 2026, reflecting the district’s consistent Republican lean on Long Island’s South Shore, his 2024 reelection margin exceeding 19 points, and forecasters’ Solid or Safe Republican ratings. Garbarino’s substantial fundraising edge—more than $3.5 million raised with over $3.4 million cash on hand—contrasts sharply with challenger Patrick Halpin’s lower totals and limited visibility. Both candidates advanced unopposed through June primaries, and no recent events, such as disputes over disaster aid, have altered the race’s fundamentals or shifted trader consensus. Halpin’s historical local government experience has not narrowed the gap in a district where structural advantages favor the incumbent.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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