Congress has a long track record of raising or suspending the statutory debt limit before the Treasury exhausts extraordinary measures and reaches an X-date, a pattern reinforced by the $5 trillion increase enacted in 2025 that set the current $41.1 trillion ceiling. With gross federal debt near $40 trillion in mid-2026, projections from the Bipartisan Policy Center place the next limit breach between late winter and mid-summer 2027, followed by six to nine months of cash management tools that push any potential default well beyond 2027 under standard legislative timelines. Traders price the near-certain “No” outcome on this institutional continuity, ongoing bipartisan negotiations over fiscal policy, and the severe market and economic costs of a missed payment. Late-breaking gridlock after the 2026 midterms or an unanticipated fiscal shock remain the primary variables that could alter timing, though both are viewed as low-probability events within the resolution window.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоUS defaults on debt by 2027?
US defaults on debt by 2027?
3% шанс
$18,051 Обс.
$18,051 Обс.
Dec 30, 2026
3% шанс
$18,051 Обс.
$18,051 Обс.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Congress has a long track record of raising or suspending the statutory debt limit before the Treasury exhausts extraordinary measures and reaches an X-date, a pattern reinforced by the $5 trillion increase enacted in 2025 that set the current $41.1 trillion ceiling. With gross federal debt near $40 trillion in mid-2026, projections from the Bipartisan Policy Center place the next limit breach between late winter and mid-summer 2027, followed by six to nine months of cash management tools that push any potential default well beyond 2027 under standard legislative timelines. Traders price the near-certain “No” outcome on this institutional continuity, ongoing bipartisan negotiations over fiscal policy, and the severe market and economic costs of a missed payment. Late-breaking gridlock after the 2026 midterms or an unanticipated fiscal shock remain the primary variables that could alter timing, though both are viewed as low-probability events within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Ринок відкрито: Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
Обсяг
$18,051Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Congress has a long track record of raising or suspending the statutory debt limit before the Treasury exhausts extraordinary measures and reaches an X-date, a pattern reinforced by the $5 trillion increase enacted in 2025 that set the current $41.1 trillion ceiling. With gross federal debt near $40 trillion in mid-2026, projections from the Bipartisan Policy Center place the next limit breach between late winter and mid-summer 2027, followed by six to nine months of cash management tools that push any potential default well beyond 2027 under standard legislative timelines. Traders price the near-certain “No” outcome on this institutional continuity, ongoing bipartisan negotiations over fiscal policy, and the severe market and economic costs of a missed payment. Late-breaking gridlock after the 2026 midterms or an unanticipated fiscal shock remain the primary variables that could alter timing, though both are viewed as low-probability events within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Обсяг
$18,051Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Congress has a long track record of raising or suspending the statutory debt limit before the Treasury exhausts extraordinary measures and reaches an X-date, a pattern reinforced by the $5 trillion increase enacted in 2025 that set the current $41.1 trillion ceiling. With gross federal debt near $40 trillion in mid-2026, projections from the Bipartisan Policy Center place the next limit breach between late winter and mid-summer 2027, followed by six to nine months of cash management tools that push any potential default well beyond 2027 under standard legislative timelines. Traders price the near-certain “No” outcome on this institutional continuity, ongoing bipartisan negotiations over fiscal policy, and the severe market and economic costs of a missed payment. Late-breaking gridlock after the 2026 midterms or an unanticipated fiscal shock remain the primary variables that could alter timing, though both are viewed as low-probability events within the resolution window.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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