The low trader-implied probabilities for a U.S. nuclear explosive test reflect sustained administration clarifications that activities ordered after President Trump's October 2025 directive will focus on subcritical experiments, hydrodynamic tests, and delivery-system evaluations at the Nevada National Security Site rather than full-yield detonations producing a nuclear chain reaction. These steps align with the voluntary moratorium in place since 1992, repeated certifications by lab directors and STRATCOM that the stockpile remains reliable under the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program, and congressional efforts to codify restrictions on explosive testing. U.S. officials have cited alleged low-yield activities by China in 2020 and Russia to justify signaling, yet NNSA planning documents and May 2026 Senate testimony emphasize no technical requirement for explosive tests, with any implementation timeline extending potentially to 2028. Scheduled budget reviews and ongoing diplomatic exchanges on arms control could still influence execution within specific resolution windows.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоЯдерне випробування США...?
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$795,287 Обс.
Sep 30, 2026
30 вересня 2026 року
1%
31 грудня 2026 року
5%
$795,287 Обс.
30 вересня 2026 року
$57,555 Обс.
1%
31 грудня 2026 року
$76,920 Обс.
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The low trader-implied probabilities for a U.S. nuclear explosive test reflect sustained administration clarifications that activities ordered after President Trump's October 2025 directive will focus on subcritical experiments, hydrodynamic tests, and delivery-system evaluations at the Nevada National Security Site rather than full-yield detonations producing a nuclear chain reaction. These steps align with the voluntary moratorium in place since 1992, repeated certifications by lab directors and STRATCOM that the stockpile remains reliable under the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program, and congressional efforts to codify restrictions on explosive testing. U.S. officials have cited alleged low-yield activities by China in 2020 and Russia to justify signaling, yet NNSA planning documents and May 2026 Senate testimony emphasize no technical requirement for explosive tests, with any implementation timeline extending potentially to 2028. Scheduled budget reviews and ongoing diplomatic exchanges on arms control could still influence execution within specific resolution windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Обсяг
$795,287Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The low trader-implied probabilities for a U.S. nuclear explosive test reflect sustained administration clarifications that activities ordered after President Trump's October 2025 directive will focus on subcritical experiments, hydrodynamic tests, and delivery-system evaluations at the Nevada National Security Site rather than full-yield detonations producing a nuclear chain reaction. These steps align with the voluntary moratorium in place since 1992, repeated certifications by lab directors and STRATCOM that the stockpile remains reliable under the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program, and congressional efforts to codify restrictions on explosive testing. U.S. officials have cited alleged low-yield activities by China in 2020 and Russia to justify signaling, yet NNSA planning documents and May 2026 Senate testimony emphasize no technical requirement for explosive tests, with any implementation timeline extending potentially to 2028. Scheduled budget reviews and ongoing diplomatic exchanges on arms control could still influence execution within specific resolution windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$795,287Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...The low trader-implied probabilities for a U.S. nuclear explosive test reflect sustained administration clarifications that activities ordered after President Trump's October 2025 directive will focus on subcritical experiments, hydrodynamic tests, and delivery-system evaluations at the Nevada National Security Site rather than full-yield detonations producing a nuclear chain reaction. These steps align with the voluntary moratorium in place since 1992, repeated certifications by lab directors and STRATCOM that the stockpile remains reliable under the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program, and congressional efforts to codify restrictions on explosive testing. U.S. officials have cited alleged low-yield activities by China in 2020 and Russia to justify signaling, yet NNSA planning documents and May 2026 Senate testimony emphasize no technical requirement for explosive tests, with any implementation timeline extending potentially to 2028. Scheduled budget reviews and ongoing diplomatic exchanges on arms control could still influence execution within specific resolution windows.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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