Recent US and Israeli strikes have severely damaged Iran's nuclear infrastructure, destroying most centrifuges and rendering key enrichment facilities inoperable, which underpins the 95.6% trader consensus against a nuclear test before 2027. IAEA reports confirm no verified enrichment activity and lost access to stockpiles of 60% enriched uranium since mid-2025, while ongoing military pressure and threats against sites like Pickaxe Mountain limit recovery timelines. The September 2026 IAEA Board referral to the UN Security Council highlights persistent non-cooperation but also Iran's constrained operational capacity. Realistic shifts could still arise from accelerated construction at hardened underground locations or de-escalation allowing covert reconstitution, though substantial technical and strategic hurdles persist through the resolution window.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоIran nuclear test before 2027?
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
5% шанс
$257,260 Обс.
$257,260 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
5% шанс
$257,260 Обс.
$257,260 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent US and Israeli strikes have severely damaged Iran's nuclear infrastructure, destroying most centrifuges and rendering key enrichment facilities inoperable, which underpins the 95.6% trader consensus against a nuclear test before 2027. IAEA reports confirm no verified enrichment activity and lost access to stockpiles of 60% enriched uranium since mid-2025, while ongoing military pressure and threats against sites like Pickaxe Mountain limit recovery timelines. The September 2026 IAEA Board referral to the UN Security Council highlights persistent non-cooperation but also Iran's constrained operational capacity. Realistic shifts could still arise from accelerated construction at hardened underground locations or de-escalation allowing covert reconstitution, though substantial technical and strategic hurdles persist through the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Обсяг
$257,260Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent US and Israeli strikes have severely damaged Iran's nuclear infrastructure, destroying most centrifuges and rendering key enrichment facilities inoperable, which underpins the 95.6% trader consensus against a nuclear test before 2027. IAEA reports confirm no verified enrichment activity and lost access to stockpiles of 60% enriched uranium since mid-2025, while ongoing military pressure and threats against sites like Pickaxe Mountain limit recovery timelines. The September 2026 IAEA Board referral to the UN Security Council highlights persistent non-cooperation but also Iran's constrained operational capacity. Realistic shifts could still arise from accelerated construction at hardened underground locations or de-escalation allowing covert reconstitution, though substantial technical and strategic hurdles persist through the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$257,260Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Recent US and Israeli strikes have severely damaged Iran's nuclear infrastructure, destroying most centrifuges and rendering key enrichment facilities inoperable, which underpins the 95.6% trader consensus against a nuclear test before 2027. IAEA reports confirm no verified enrichment activity and lost access to stockpiles of 60% enriched uranium since mid-2025, while ongoing military pressure and threats against sites like Pickaxe Mountain limit recovery timelines. The September 2026 IAEA Board referral to the UN Security Council highlights persistent non-cooperation but also Iran's constrained operational capacity. Realistic shifts could still arise from accelerated construction at hardened underground locations or de-escalation allowing covert reconstitution, though substantial technical and strategic hurdles persist through the resolution window.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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