**Strong El Niño conditions, already classified as very strong with Niño 3.4 anomalies exceeding +2°C, represent the dominant factor suppressing September 2026 tornado potential across the contiguous United States.** El Niño typically shifts the jet stream northward and reduces wind shear and low-level moisture convergence in prime tornado regions like the Great Plains and Midwest, consistent with below-average counts in analogous past events. Early-month SPC outlooks show only marginal to slight severe risks focused on wind and hail rather than tornadoes, with limited organized convection through the first week. Historical September averages range from roughly 66 (1991–2020) to 74 tornadoes, yet recent quiet periods (e.g., 30 in 2023) and the absence of prolific tropical cyclone activity further support trader emphasis on the 25–74 bin range. High month-to-month variability persists due to possible late-September fronts or landfalling systems, but current atmospheric signals favor totals clustered near or below the long-term mean.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоUS Tornadoes in September 2026
US Tornadoes in September 2026
50 - 74 48%
25 - 49 47%
75 - 124 44%
125 or more 16%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Oct 14, 2026
Under 25
15%
25 - 49
47%
50 - 74
48%
75 - 124
44%
125 or more
16%
50 - 74 48%
25 - 49 47%
75 - 124 44%
125 or more 16%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Oct 14, 2026
Under 25
$10 Обс.
15%
25 - 49
$0 Обс.
47%
50 - 74
$0 Обс.
48%
75 - 124
$0 Обс.
44%
125 or more
$25 Обс.
16%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.**Strong El Niño conditions, already classified as very strong with Niño 3.4 anomalies exceeding +2°C, represent the dominant factor suppressing September 2026 tornado potential across the contiguous United States.** El Niño typically shifts the jet stream northward and reduces wind shear and low-level moisture convergence in prime tornado regions like the Great Plains and Midwest, consistent with below-average counts in analogous past events. Early-month SPC outlooks show only marginal to slight severe risks focused on wind and hail rather than tornadoes, with limited organized convection through the first week. Historical September averages range from roughly 66 (1991–2020) to 74 tornadoes, yet recent quiet periods (e.g., 30 in 2023) and the absence of prolific tropical cyclone activity further support trader emphasis on the 25–74 bin range. High month-to-month variability persists due to possible late-September fronts or landfalling systems, but current atmospheric signals favor totals clustered near or below the long-term mean.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ET
Обсяг
$35Дата завершення
Oct 15, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.**Strong El Niño conditions, already classified as very strong with Niño 3.4 anomalies exceeding +2°C, represent the dominant factor suppressing September 2026 tornado potential across the contiguous United States.** El Niño typically shifts the jet stream northward and reduces wind shear and low-level moisture convergence in prime tornado regions like the Great Plains and Midwest, consistent with below-average counts in analogous past events. Early-month SPC outlooks show only marginal to slight severe risks focused on wind and hail rather than tornadoes, with limited organized convection through the first week. Historical September averages range from roughly 66 (1991–2020) to 74 tornadoes, yet recent quiet periods (e.g., 30 in 2023) and the absence of prolific tropical cyclone activity further support trader emphasis on the 25–74 bin range. High month-to-month variability persists due to possible late-September fronts or landfalling systems, but current atmospheric signals favor totals clustered near or below the long-term mean.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Обсяг
$35Дата завершення
Oct 15, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...**Strong El Niño conditions, already classified as very strong with Niño 3.4 anomalies exceeding +2°C, represent the dominant factor suppressing September 2026 tornado potential across the contiguous United States.** El Niño typically shifts the jet stream northward and reduces wind shear and low-level moisture convergence in prime tornado regions like the Great Plains and Midwest, consistent with below-average counts in analogous past events. Early-month SPC outlooks show only marginal to slight severe risks focused on wind and hail rather than tornadoes, with limited organized convection through the first week. Historical September averages range from roughly 66 (1991–2020) to 74 tornadoes, yet recent quiet periods (e.g., 30 in 2023) and the absence of prolific tropical cyclone activity further support trader emphasis on the 25–74 bin range. High month-to-month variability persists due to possible late-September fronts or landfalling systems, but current atmospheric signals favor totals clustered near or below the long-term mean.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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