Trader consensus against Donald Trump resigning before 2027 stems from the lack of any verifiable institutional pressure, health disclosures, or political developments indicating such a step during his second term. Incumbents rarely resign absent extraordinary circumstances, and current executive priorities, legislative engagement, and public statements show continuity in office. Historical base rates reinforce this view, with only isolated precedents like the 1974 Watergate resignation. Scenarios that could still shift probabilities include sudden medical events requiring incapacity determinations, major congressional actions, or unforeseen legal resolutions, though none have emerged to date to challenge the prevailing market assessment.