Incumbent Democrat Greg Stanton maintains a commanding lead in the AZ-04 House race due to the district’s D+4 Partisan Voter Index, his consistent reelection record since 2018, and a decisive July 2026 primary victory that consolidated party support. Fundraising advantages and recent endorsements, including from the Arizona Fraternal Order of Police, reinforce trader assessments of low risk for an upset against Republican nominee Zuhdi Jasser. The general election on November 3 remains the resolution trigger. A significant national Republican surge, late-breaking scandal, or unforeseen turnout shift in Maricopa County could still narrow the margin, though current indicators show limited pathways for such changes.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtAZ-04 House Election Winner
AZ-04 House Election Winner
$37,233 KL.
$37,233 KL.
Nov 2, 2026
Greg Stanton (D)
95%
Zuhdi Jasser (R)
6%
$37,233 KL.
$37,233 KL.
Nov 2, 2026
Greg Stanton (D)
$25,677 KL.
95%
Zuhdi Jasser (R)
$11,556 KL.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Greg Stanton maintains a commanding lead in the AZ-04 House race due to the district’s D+4 Partisan Voter Index, his consistent reelection record since 2018, and a decisive July 2026 primary victory that consolidated party support. Fundraising advantages and recent endorsements, including from the Arizona Fraternal Order of Police, reinforce trader assessments of low risk for an upset against Republican nominee Zuhdi Jasser. The general election on November 3 remains the resolution trigger. A significant national Republican surge, late-breaking scandal, or unforeseen turnout shift in Maricopa County could still narrow the margin, though current indicators show limited pathways for such changes.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Khối lượng
$37,233Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Greg Stanton maintains a commanding lead in the AZ-04 House race due to the district’s D+4 Partisan Voter Index, his consistent reelection record since 2018, and a decisive July 2026 primary victory that consolidated party support. Fundraising advantages and recent endorsements, including from the Arizona Fraternal Order of Police, reinforce trader assessments of low risk for an upset against Republican nominee Zuhdi Jasser. The general election on November 3 remains the resolution trigger. A significant national Republican surge, late-breaking scandal, or unforeseen turnout shift in Maricopa County could still narrow the margin, though current indicators show limited pathways for such changes.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$37,233Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Greg Stanton maintains a commanding lead in the AZ-04 House race due to the district’s D+4 Partisan Voter Index, his consistent reelection record since 2018, and a decisive July 2026 primary victory that consolidated party support. Fundraising advantages and recent endorsements, including from the Arizona Fraternal Order of Police, reinforce trader assessments of low risk for an upset against Republican nominee Zuhdi Jasser. The general election on November 3 remains the resolution trigger. A significant national Republican surge, late-breaking scandal, or unforeseen turnout shift in Maricopa County could still narrow the margin, though current indicators show limited pathways for such changes.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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