Long-serving incumbent Mike Thompson anchors the Democratic Party's 96.2% implied probability in California's 4th congressional district, where the June 2026 top-two primary advanced Thompson and fellow Democrat Eric Jones to the November general election. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with its D+8 partisan voter index derived from recent presidential results. Republicans split their primary vote across multiple candidates, preventing any from advancing and leaving no viable general-election challenger. This outcome aligns with the district's established partisan lean and historical margins exceeding 60 points for Democratic nominees. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented write-in surge or late reversal of the primary results, scenarios with negligible precedent in similar California districts.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtCA-04 House Election Winner
CA-04 House Election Winner
$13,721 KL.
$13,721 KL.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
96%
Republican Party
3%
$13,721 KL.
$13,721 KL.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$5,915 KL.
96%
Republican Party
$7,806 KL.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Long-serving incumbent Mike Thompson anchors the Democratic Party's 96.2% implied probability in California's 4th congressional district, where the June 2026 top-two primary advanced Thompson and fellow Democrat Eric Jones to the November general election. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with its D+8 partisan voter index derived from recent presidential results. Republicans split their primary vote across multiple candidates, preventing any from advancing and leaving no viable general-election challenger. This outcome aligns with the district's established partisan lean and historical margins exceeding 60 points for Democratic nominees. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented write-in surge or late reversal of the primary results, scenarios with negligible precedent in similar California districts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Khối lượng
$13,721Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Long-serving incumbent Mike Thompson anchors the Democratic Party's 96.2% implied probability in California's 4th congressional district, where the June 2026 top-two primary advanced Thompson and fellow Democrat Eric Jones to the November general election. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with its D+8 partisan voter index derived from recent presidential results. Republicans split their primary vote across multiple candidates, preventing any from advancing and leaving no viable general-election challenger. This outcome aligns with the district's established partisan lean and historical margins exceeding 60 points for Democratic nominees. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented write-in surge or late reversal of the primary results, scenarios with negligible precedent in similar California districts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$13,721Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x2F5e3684c...Long-serving incumbent Mike Thompson anchors the Democratic Party's 96.2% implied probability in California's 4th congressional district, where the June 2026 top-two primary advanced Thompson and fellow Democrat Eric Jones to the November general election. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with its D+8 partisan voter index derived from recent presidential results. Republicans split their primary vote across multiple candidates, preventing any from advancing and leaving no viable general-election challenger. This outcome aligns with the district's established partisan lean and historical margins exceeding 60 points for Democratic nominees. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented write-in surge or late reversal of the primary results, scenarios with negligible precedent in similar California districts.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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