**The Fed’s current 3.50–3.75% target range, elevated inflation readings, and stable labor market underpin the 92.5% market-implied probability against an emergency rate cut before 2027.** Persistent price pressures—driven by energy shocks from Middle East tensions and core CPI prints exceeding expectations—have shifted the FOMC toward a hawkish stance under Chair Kevin Warsh, with September 2026 projections favoring possible hikes rather than easing. Recent strong August payrolls and limited disinflation have reinforced trader consensus that policy remains on hold or tighter through year-end, consistent with official dot-plot medians showing the first projected cuts only in 2027. An emergency cut would require a sharp deterioration in financial conditions or a sudden recession signal, neither of which is evident in current data or Fed communications.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtFed emergency rate cut before 2027?
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
7% khả năng
$214,159 KL.
$214,159 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
7% khả năng
$214,159 KL.
$214,159 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.**The Fed’s current 3.50–3.75% target range, elevated inflation readings, and stable labor market underpin the 92.5% market-implied probability against an emergency rate cut before 2027.** Persistent price pressures—driven by energy shocks from Middle East tensions and core CPI prints exceeding expectations—have shifted the FOMC toward a hawkish stance under Chair Kevin Warsh, with September 2026 projections favoring possible hikes rather than easing. Recent strong August payrolls and limited disinflation have reinforced trader consensus that policy remains on hold or tighter through year-end, consistent with official dot-plot medians showing the first projected cuts only in 2027. An emergency cut would require a sharp deterioration in financial conditions or a sudden recession signal, neither of which is evident in current data or Fed communications.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
Thị trường mở: Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ET
Khối lượng
$214,159Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.**The Fed’s current 3.50–3.75% target range, elevated inflation readings, and stable labor market underpin the 92.5% market-implied probability against an emergency rate cut before 2027.** Persistent price pressures—driven by energy shocks from Middle East tensions and core CPI prints exceeding expectations—have shifted the FOMC toward a hawkish stance under Chair Kevin Warsh, with September 2026 projections favoring possible hikes rather than easing. Recent strong August payrolls and limited disinflation have reinforced trader consensus that policy remains on hold or tighter through year-end, consistent with official dot-plot medians showing the first projected cuts only in 2027. An emergency cut would require a sharp deterioration in financial conditions or a sudden recession signal, neither of which is evident in current data or Fed communications.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
Khối lượng
$214,159Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...**The Fed’s current 3.50–3.75% target range, elevated inflation readings, and stable labor market underpin the 92.5% market-implied probability against an emergency rate cut before 2027.** Persistent price pressures—driven by energy shocks from Middle East tensions and core CPI prints exceeding expectations—have shifted the FOMC toward a hawkish stance under Chair Kevin Warsh, with September 2026 projections favoring possible hikes rather than easing. Recent strong August payrolls and limited disinflation have reinforced trader consensus that policy remains on hold or tighter through year-end, consistent with official dot-plot medians showing the first projected cuts only in 2027. An emergency cut would require a sharp deterioration in financial conditions or a sudden recession signal, neither of which is evident in current data or Fed communications.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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