**Trader consensus on 8 or 9 countries reflects the scope of verified U.S. military operations through late August 2026.** Direct strikes and joint actions have occurred in Iran (Operation Epic Fury and follow-on strikes), Venezuela (January regime-change operation and subsequent strikes), Somalia (AFRICOM counter-al-Shabaab and ISIS strikes), Syria (airstrikes on ISIS targets), Ecuador (joint land operations against designated groups), Iraq (strikes on Iran-aligned targets), and Nigeria (airstrikes on ISIS). Counter-narcotics boat strikes in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific, plus emerging land cooperation with Colombia, Guatemala, and Honduras, add potential additional countries without yet pushing totals higher. Recent August strikes and expanded regional agreements have not introduced major new theaters, keeping the implied probability centered on a modest expansion of the existing set of operations by year-end rather than broad escalation.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtUS Central Command forms Task Force Falcon Strike for multinational drone operations in Middle East
8 surges to 60%19%
On August 13, 2026, US Central Command announced the creation of Task Force Falcon Strike, a multinational force integrating aerial, surface, and underwater attack drones for coordinated strike operations across the Middle East. This development reflects the expansion and formalization of US drone strike capabilities in the region.
US forms multinational attack drone force to expand Middle East operations
8 jumps to 55%14%
On August 13, 2026, US Central Command announced Task Force Falcon Strike, the first multinational and multi-domain attack drone force, operating in the Middle East with regional partners. This initiative reflects ongoing US military engagement and drone strike capabilities in multiple countries in the region.
U.S. Central Command forms multinational attack drone force to expand Middle East operations
8 jumps to 62%11%
The U.S. established Task Force Falcon Strike, a multinational drone force for distributed strike operations across the Middle East, reflecting an expansion of U.S. military capabilities and presence in the region.
Taiwan conducts first flight of new medium-class strike drone
8 surges to 62%19%
On August 12, 2026, the Taiwanese Navy flew a new medium-class one-way strike drone for the first time, adding to its drone arsenal amid regional tensions involving US military technology.
Ukraine strikes Russian naval base in Novorossiysk with missile and drone attacks
Ukraine launched missile and drone strikes on a Russian naval base, with US support and intelligence sharing, reflecting US involvement in military actions in Ukraine and expanding the conflict's geographic scope.
Russia and Ukraine exchange missile and drone strikes amid ongoing conflict
8 drops to 61%7%
While not involving US strikes, the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine with missile and drone attacks highlights the broader context of drone warfare escalation in 2026, indirectly influencing market perceptions of US military engagements globally.
Russian missile strikes drone factory owned by US company in Ukraine
8 jumps to 43%7%
On July 31, 2026, a Russian ballistic missile struck a drone factory owned by a US company in Kyiv, marking the first reported attack on an American-affiliated site during the war in Ukraine.
US and Saudi forces launch strikes against Iran-aligned groups in eastern Iraq
US and Saudi forces conducted strikes against Iran-aligned groups in eastern Iraq in retaliation for drone attacks on Saudi oil targets launched from Iraq. This expanded the US military action to Iraq, adding another country to the list of those targeted in 2026.
Iran claims retaliatory drone attack on US military facilities in Kuwait
On July 31, 2026, Iran's army claimed a retaliatory drone strike on US military facilities at Kuwait's Ahmad Al-Jaber Air Base, marking US military involvement on Kuwaiti soil and expanding the conflict beyond Iran.
Russia strikes US-owned drone factory in Ukraine
8 jumps to 39%5%
A Russian ballistic missile struck a drone factory owned by a US company in Kyiv, marking US military-related infrastructure targeted on Ukrainian soil, expanding the geographic scope of US military involvement.
Russian ballistic missile strikes US-owned drone factory in Kyiv, Ukraine
8 surges to 63%21%
On July 31, 2026, a Russian ballistic missile destroyed a drone factory in Kyiv owned by a U.S. corporation, marking the first reported attack on an American-affiliated site in the Ukraine conflict and highlighting the global reach of military tensions involving the U.S.
Iran claims retaliatory drone attack on US military facilities in Kuwait
Iran's army claimed a drone attack on US military facilities at Kuwait's Ahmad Al-Jaber Air Base, marking US military action on Kuwaiti soil and expanding the number of countries involved in the conflict as per market criteria.
Russia strikes drone factory owned by US company in Ukraine
A Russian ballistic missile struck a drone factory owned by a US company in Kyiv, marking US military-related infrastructure targeted in Ukraine and expanding the number of countries involved in US military action.
Drone strike near Suez Canal in Egypt signals new front in US-Iran war
10 jumps to 42%7%
On July 30, 2026, a drone strike on gas vessels in Egypt's port of Damietta raised concerns about the widening US-Iran conflict, potentially involving Egypt as a new country where US military action or related conflict occurs.
Drone strike near Suez Canal in Egypt signals new front in US-Iran war
8 surges to 62%16%
On July 30, 2026, a drone strike on gas vessels in Egypt's port of Damietta raised concerns about the widening US-Iran conflict potentially threatening navigation through the Suez Canal, indicating US military involvement in Egypt's territory.
US launches heavy strikes on dozens of IRGC targets in Iran after attempted missile attacks
8 rises to 44%4%
On July 29-30, 2026, US Central Command conducted a heavy wave of strikes against dozens of IRGC targets in Iran in response to attempted Iranian missile strikes on US forces, continuing US military action on Iranian soil.
US completes series of strikes against Iranian targets near Strait of Hormuz
On July 30, 2026, the US completed a series of strikes targeting Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites near the Strait of Hormuz, continuing the focused military campaign on Iranian soil.
US airstrike targets border area near western Iranian city
8 dips to 59%4%
On July 29-30, 2026, US forces conducted airstrikes targeting Iranian military positions near the western border, continuing the campaign of strikes on Iranian soil and reinforcing the market's expectation of multiple countries targeted.
Drone strike on gas vessels in Egypt's port of Damietta signals new front in US-Iran war
A drone strike on vessels in Egypt's Mediterranean port of Damietta raised concerns about the widening US-Iran conflict, potentially adding Egypt as a country where US military action is relevant due to the conflict's regional spillover.
US Central Command conducts heavy airstrikes against Iran following attacks on US forces in Jordan
In late July 2026, the US carried out a wave of heavy airstrikes against Iranian military targets in response to Iranian attacks on US forces in Jordan, marking continued escalation in the US-Iran conflict.
US CENTCOM chief presents two-week air campaign plan against Iran
8 rises to 39%4%
US Central Command announced plans for an intensified two-week air campaign against Iran, signaling continued and expanded US military strikes on Iranian soil in mid-2026.
US airstrikes target Iranian military command centers after Tehran fires ballistic missiles
On July 30, 2026, the US military struck dozens of Iranian Revolutionary Guard targets including command centers and drone facilities in response to Iranian missile attacks on US forces and commercial shipping.
U.S. launches more strikes on Iranian sites around Strait of Hormuz amid continued Iranian aggression
The U.S. military conducted additional strikes on Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites near the Strait of Hormuz, responding to ongoing Iranian attacks and signaling persistent military engagement in Iran.
US conducts airstrikes targeting al-Shabaab in Somalia
In coordination with the Somali government, US Africa Command conducted airstrikes against al-Shabaab militants, extending US military action to Somalia in 2026.
Iranian Revolutionary Guard launches missile and drone strikes on US military sites in Gulf
8 jumps to 40%6%
The IRGC retaliated with a massive barrage of ballistic missiles and drone swarms targeting eight US military installations across the Persian Gulf, breaching regional air defenses and escalating the conflict beyond Iran's borders.
Drone strike causes fire on US gas-storage tanker at Damietta port, Egypt
8 rises to 41%2%
On July 29, 2026, a drone strike caused an explosion and fire on a US-owned gas-storage tanker at the port of Damietta, Egypt. This incident brought Egypt into the conflict as a country where US military-related assets were attacked by drone strikes.
Iranian forces claim retaliatory drone attack on US facilities in Kuwait
8 jumps to 47%8%
Iran's army claimed a retaliatory drone strike on US military facilities at Kuwait's Ahmad Al-Jaber Air Base, though US and Kuwaiti authorities did not confirm damage. This indicated regional escalation involving US military presence in Kuwait, affecting market views on the number of countries struck.
US military launches heavy strikes on Iran after foiling missile attack on US forces
9 rises to 31%1%
The US conducted a heavy wave of airstrikes against Iranian targets in response to an earlier Iranian missile attack on a US base in Jordan, confirming ongoing US military operations in multiple countries in the region.
U.S. military completes heavy wave of strikes against Iran after missile attack on U.S. base in Jordan
8 jumps to 51%11%
In response to an Iranian missile attack on a U.S. base in Jordan, the U.S. conducted a heavy wave of strikes against Iranian targets, maintaining high military pressure in the region.
US airstrike targets border area near western Iranian city
The US conducted airstrikes near a western Iranian city, further demonstrating ongoing military operations on Iranian soil during the 2026 conflict.
US intensifies airstrikes on Iran amid rising conflict
8 surges to 66%30%
The US conducted multiple airstrikes against Iranian military targets in response to Iranian attacks on US forces and infrastructure, signaling a near tipping point in the conflict. These strikes included targeting missile and drone sites and were part of a sustained campaign on Iranian soil.
US military completes heavy wave of strikes against Iran in response to missile attack on US base in Jordan
On July 29, 2026, the US military completed a heavy wave of strikes against Iranian military targets following an Iranian missile attack on a US base in Jordan, further escalating the conflict and involving multiple countries in the region.
Drone strike causes explosion at Damietta port in Egypt, hitting US gas tanker
8 surges to 68%27%
On July 29, 2026, a drone strike caused explosions at the port of Damietta, Egypt, damaging a US-owned gas-storage tanker. This represents US military impact on Egyptian soil via drone warfare during the 2026 Iran conflict.
US conducts heavy wave of strikes against Iran in response to missile attack
9 jumps to 43%8%
On July 29, 2026, the US military completed a heavy wave of strikes against Iran following an Iranian missile attack on a US base in Jordan, further intensifying the conflict and maintaining market expectations for multiple strikes in Iran.
U.S. airstrikes target Popular Mobilization Forces base in Iraq amid regional conflict
The U.S. conducted airstrikes on a militia base in Iraq linked to Iranian-backed groups, expanding military action to Iraqi territory and increasing the number of countries where the U.S. conducted strikes in 2026.
US military completes heavy wave of strikes against Iran after missile attack on US base
The US conducted a heavy wave of airstrikes against Iran in response to an earlier Iranian missile attack on a US base in Jordan, further confirming ongoing US military strikes on Iranian territory in 2026.
US conducts heavy wave of strikes on Iranian military targets amid regional escalation
On July 29, 2026, the US military completed a heavy wave of strikes on Iranian military command centers, air defense, missile and drone launch sites, and communications networks, further escalating the conflict and impacting multiple countries' territories.
US and Saudi forces strike Iran-aligned groups in eastern Iraq
In retaliation for drone attacks on Saudi oil targets launched from Iraq, US and Saudi forces conducted strikes against Iran-aligned groups in eastern Iraq, expanding US military action to Iraq.
US launches new airstrikes against Iran following Iranian missile attack on US base in Jordan
8 jumps to 41%7%
On July 29, 2026, the US conducted a heavy wave of airstrikes against Iranian military targets in response to an Iranian missile attack on a US base in Jordan, further escalating US military involvement in the region and reinforcing market expectations.
US completes heavy wave of strikes on Iranian military targets
8 surges to 64%20%
On July 29, 2026, the US military completed a significant series of strikes on Iranian military targets in response to attacks on US forces in Jordan and Iraq, maintaining high operational tempo against Iran in 2026.
US military completes heavy wave of strikes against Iran in response to missile attack on US base in Jordan
8 jumps to 41%6%
The US conducted a heavy wave of airstrikes against Iranian military targets following an Iranian missile attack on a US base in Jordan, signaling sustained military pressure on Iran and reinforcing market expectations of multiple strikes in Iran.
US launches multiple strikes on Iranian military targets amid regional tensions
The US conducted a heavy wave of strikes on Iranian military command centers, missile and drone launch sites, and air defense systems, continuing a series of retaliatory actions in the ongoing conflict on Iranian soil.
Drone strike causes explosion at Damietta port in Egypt, hitting US gas-storage tanker
On July 29, 2026, a drone strike caused an explosion at the port of Damietta, Egypt, damaging a US gas-storage tanker and marking a US strike impact on Egyptian soil during the ongoing Iran war.
US investigates possible Russian assistance to Iran in drone strikes on CIA sites
8 jumps to 59%12%
On July 28, 2026, US intelligence agencies began probing whether Russia aided Iran in targeting CIA facilities in the Persian Gulf with drone strikes, indicating a complex multi-national dimension to the conflict involving US military targets abroad.
U.S. thwarts Iranian missile attack and conducts strikes on Iran-linked sites in Iraq
12 drops to 2%5%
U.S. forces intercepted an Iranian missile attack and launched retaliatory strikes against weapons and logistics sites in eastern Iraq used by Iran-backed militias, expanding military actions to Iraq.
Iran launches missile attacks on US bases in Jordan, US responds with strikes in Iran
9 jumps to 44%9%
On July 28, 2026, Iran launched multiple ballistic missiles at US bases in Jordan, prompting US military strikes on Iranian military command centers and missile facilities. This expanded the conflict to Jordan and reaffirmed US military action on Iranian soil.
US and Saudi forces strike multiple terrorist logistics and weapons sites in eastern Iraq
In retaliation for drone attacks, US and Saudi forces conducted strikes on terrorist sites in eastern Iraq, marking US military action on Iraqi soil in 2026.
US and Saudi forces strike terrorist sites in eastern Iraq in response to drone attacks
9 drops to 25%5%
In retaliation for over 30 drone attacks by Iran-aligned terrorists, US and Saudi forces conducted strikes on multiple terrorist logistics and weapons sites in eastern Iraq, expanding US military action to Iraqi soil.
Iranian missile and drone strike damages US aircraft at Saudi base
On March 27, 2026, Iranian missile and drone strikes damaged US aircraft at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, marking US military involvement on Saudi soil and escalating regional conflict.
Iranian missile and drone strikes target US military sites in Jordan's Aqaba
On July 25, 2026, Iran launched missile and drone attacks on US military facilities in Jordan, including Aqaba airport, confirming US military presence and conflict on Jordanian soil.
Iranian missile and drone strikes target US military sites in Jordan's Aqaba
8 jumps to 59%12%
On July 25, 2026, Iran launched missile and drone attacks on US military installations in Jordan's Aqaba, including the airport and port, escalating the regional conflict and involving multiple countries' territories in the hostilities.
Iranian missiles and drones strike US military sites in Jordan's Aqaba
Iran launched missile and drone attacks on US military facilities in Jordan's Aqaba, with several missiles intercepted but some impacting unpopulated areas, expanding the conflict to Jordanian territory.
Iranian missiles strike US military sites in Jordan's Aqaba
8 drops to 18%7%
Iran launched missile and drone strikes targeting US military facilities in Jordan, including Aqaba airport, marking US military involvement on Jordanian soil and expanding the conflict's geographic scope.
Russian missile strikes US drone factory in Ukraine
8 jumps to 47%7%
On July 24, 2026, a Russian ballistic missile struck a US-owned drone factory in Ukraine, highlighting US military involvement in Ukraine and expanding the number of countries affected by US military operations.
IRGC launches drone and missile attacks on US bases in Jordan, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia
8 jumps to 43%7%
On July 22, 2026, Iran's IRGC launched drone and missile attacks targeting US military bases in Jordan, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia, expanding the conflict to multiple countries' territories.
US launches ninth consecutive night of airstrikes against Iran targeting missile and drone sites
8 rises to 41%3%
On July 21, 2026, the US launched a ninth straight night of airstrikes against Iranian air defenses, missile, and drone sites, following Iranian attacks on US-aligned airbases. This sustained campaign reinforced the focus on Iran as the primary country targeted by US military strikes in 2026.
US Central Command begins ninth consecutive night of air strikes against Iran
8 surges to 68%29%
The US launched a three-hour wave of airstrikes targeting Iranian military command centers, missile and drone launch sites, and maritime capabilities, continuing sustained military action on Iranian soil.
US Central Command launches new wave of air strikes against Iran to secure Strait of Hormuz shipping
8 jumps to 42%6%
CENTCOM began a three-hour wave of strikes against Iranian military installations to secure commercial access to the Strait of Hormuz, marking the ninth consecutive night of operations and ongoing US military presence on Iranian soil.
U.S. Central Command begins ninth consecutive night of airstrikes against Iran
CENTCOM launched a three-hour wave of airstrikes targeting Iranian military command centers, air defense, missile and drone launch sites, marking the ninth consecutive night of strikes on Iranian soil.
US military completes ninth consecutive night of strikes on Iran
8 surges to 63%22%
On July 20, 2026, US Central Command announced the completion of the ninth consecutive night of air strikes against Iranian military targets, demonstrating sustained US military action on Iranian soil and impacting market perceptions.
US begins ninth consecutive night of strikes on Iran to secure Strait of Hormuz shipping
8 surges to 62%16%
On July 20, 2026, US Central Command launched a three-hour wave of airstrikes against Iranian military installations, marking the ninth consecutive night of strikes aimed at securing commercial access to the Strait of Hormuz.
US launches ninth consecutive night of air strikes against Iran
8 jumps to 65%10%
US Central Command began a three-hour wave of airstrikes targeting Iranian military command centers, missile and drone launch sites, and communications networks, marking the ninth consecutive night of strikes aimed at securing the Strait of Hormuz.
US military launches new wave of air strikes against Iran
The US Central Command announced a new wave of air strikes against Iran, marking the ninth consecutive night of operations aimed at degrading Iran's military capabilities and continuing US military action in the region.
US completes additional airstrikes against Iran following Iranian attacks on US allies
8 rises to 41%3%
The U.S. military launched another wave of strikes targeting Iranian military command centers, missile and drone launch sites, and air defense systems to degrade Iran's ability to attack commercial vessels and US allies in the Gulf.
US completes ninth consecutive night of strikes on Iran amid missile interceptions in Jordan and Bahrain
US Central Command announced the completion of nine consecutive nights of strikes on Iranian military targets, including command centers and missile launch sites. Concurrently, Iranian missile strikes were intercepted in Jordan and Bahrain, indicating ongoing conflict across multiple countries hosting US forces.
US completes ninth consecutive night of strikes on Iran
8 surges to 63%16%
By July 19, 2026, the US had conducted nine consecutive nights of strikes on Iran targeting military command centers, missile and drone launch sites, and communications networks, indicating sustained military action on Iranian territory.
US military launches airstrikes on Iran to punish Revolutionary Guard after attack in Jordan
9 jumps to 41%7%
On July 18, 2026, the US conducted airstrikes against Iran targeting infrastructure near the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for an Iranian attack on a US base in Jordan that killed American service members, escalating the conflict and involving multiple countries' territories.
US launches new airstrikes to punish Iran for attack killing American troops
8 jumps to 36%6%
Following an Iranian attack in Jordan that killed US service members, the US launched airstrikes against Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps targets to degrade Iran's ability to threaten commercial shipping and punish the attackers. This intensified the US military campaign on Iranian soil.
US launches new airstrikes against Iran to punish Revolutionary Guard for attack in Jordan
8 jumps to 37%11%
In retaliation for an Iranian missile attack that killed US troops in Jordan, the US launched new airstrikes against Iranian military targets to degrade Iran's ability to threaten commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. This further confirmed ongoing US military action in Iran.
US airstrikes punish Iran’s Revolutionary Guard after attack in Jordan
8 jumps to 50%12%
Following an attack on a US base in Jordan that killed American service members, the US launched airstrikes against Iran’s Revolutionary Guard on July 18, 2026, expanding US military action to Jordanian territory and escalating the conflict.
US military launches new airstrikes to punish Iran for attack killing US troops in Jordan
Following an Iranian attack on a US base in Jordan that killed two American service members, the US conducted airstrikes against Iranian Revolutionary Guard targets to degrade their military capabilities.
US launches airstrikes on Iran to punish Revolutionary Guard for attack in Jordan
The US military launched new airstrikes against Iran to punish the Revolutionary Guard for a missile attack on a US base in Jordan that killed American troops, demonstrating US military action on Iranian soil and regional retaliation.
U.S. launches new airstrikes against Iran to punish Revolutionary Guard for attack in Jordan
8 rises to 40%3%
Following an Iranian attack that killed American service members in Jordan, the U.S. launched airstrikes aimed at degrading Iran’s military capabilities, further escalating the conflict in the Middle East.
Iranian missile and drone strikes target US base in Jordan, killing US troops
8 drops to 1%5%
Iran launched missile and drone attacks on the Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan, a US military facility, resulting in US casualties. This expanded the conflict to Jordanian territory, increasing the number of countries where US forces were attacked and potentially responded with strikes.
US launches new airstrikes on Iran after deadly Iranian missile and drone attacks in Jordan
Following Iranian missile and drone attacks on US military bases in Jordan that killed three US service members, the US launched retaliatory airstrikes against Iranian targets to degrade their military capabilities, expanding US military action to Jordanian soil as well.
US military launches airstrikes to punish Iran for deaths of US troops
8 jumps to 55%5%
Following an Iranian attack in Jordan that killed US service members, the US conducted airstrikes damaging infrastructure in southern Iran near the Strait of Hormuz, signaling a swift punitive response and continuing military action on Iranian soil.
US launches ninth consecutive night of airstrikes on Iran after troop deaths
8 jumps to 41%6%
Following the deaths of US service members in Jordan, the US launched a ninth straight night of airstrikes targeting Iranian air defenses, missile, and drone sites, escalating the military campaign in Iran and reinforcing the count of strike countries.
Iranian strikes kill US troops and damage US base in Jordan
9 dips to 29%1%
Iranian missile and drone strikes on US military sites in Jordan killed two US troops and damaged facilities, expanding the conflict's geographic scope and influencing market expectations about US military actions in multiple countries.
US launches new airstrikes against Iran in retaliation for troop deaths in Jordan
Following an Iranian missile and drone attack in Jordan that killed US service members, the US launched retaliatory airstrikes against Iranian forces, expanding the scope of US military action in the region and confirming Jordan as a country affected by US strikes.
US completes multiple drone and missile strikes on Iranian targets amid regional tensions
8 jumps to 41%6%
US military forces conducted several consecutive nights of strikes against Iranian military infrastructure, including drone and missile sites, as part of ongoing conflict escalation. These actions sustained market expectations of US military activity on Iranian soil.
US launches new airstrikes against Iran to punish Revolutionary Guard for attack killing American troops
On July 18, 2026, the US launched new airstrikes against Iranian military targets to punish the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps for an attack in Jordan that killed American service members, intensifying the conflict and increasing the number of countries involved.
US launches new airstrikes to punish Iran for killing US troops in Jordan
9 rises to 35%4%
Following an Iranian attack that killed US troops in Jordan, the US launched new airstrikes against Iranian Revolutionary Guard targets on July 18, 2026, escalating the conflict and reinforcing expectations of sustained US military action in Iran.
U.S. military launches new airstrikes to punish Iran for attack killing U.S. troops in Jordan
In retaliation for an Iranian attack on a U.S. base in Jordan that killed American service members, the U.S. conducted airstrikes on Iranian infrastructure, continuing the military campaign.
U.S. military launches new airstrikes to punish Iran for deaths of U.S. troops in Jordan
Following an Iranian attack in Jordan that killed two American service members, the U.S. launched new airstrikes against Iranian targets, including infrastructure and military sites, escalating military actions on Iranian soil.
Iranian missile and drone attacks hit multiple Gulf countries including Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, and Qatar
8 jumps to 31%8%
Iran launched missile and drone strikes against several Gulf countries hosting U.S. military bases, including Oman, Jordan, Kuwait, and Qatar, expanding the conflict to multiple countries' soil and complicating U.S. military engagement in the region.
US expands air strike campaign against Iran targeting bridges and infrastructure
8 jumps to 41%6%
On July 17, 2026, the US expanded its air strike campaign against Iran by targeting bridges and infrastructure, intensifying military action on Iranian soil and reinforcing market expectations of multiple strikes in Iran.
US military launches multiple airstrikes on Iranian military targets amid ongoing conflict
8 jumps to 40%9%
On July 17, 2026, the US military launched multiple airstrikes targeting Iranian military infrastructure, including missile and drone storage sites, escalating the conflict and involving Iranian territory.
Iranian missile attack damages US aircraft at Jordanian air base
On July 17, 2026, an Iranian missile attack on Muwaffaq Salti Air Base near Azraq, Jordan, damaged multiple US aircraft including helicopters and fighter jets. This confirmed US military action on Jordanian soil through retaliatory strikes and ongoing conflict.
U.S. launches new strikes on Iran as Tehran targets Gulf sites including Kuwait and Bahrain
8 jumps to 23%9%
The U.S. conducted another wave of strikes targeting Iranian command centers and missile capabilities, while Iran retaliated with missile and drone attacks on U.S. military assets in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan, expanding the conflict regionally.
US launches new airstrikes on Iran to punish Revolutionary Guard after attack in Jordan
8 jumps to 7%6%
On July 15, 2026, the US conducted new airstrikes against Iran targeting Revolutionary Guard facilities following an Iranian attack on a US base in Jordan that killed two American service members. This confirmed continued US strikes limited to Iranian territory despite Iranian missile and drone attacks on US bases in Gulf countries.
Iran launches drone and missile attacks on US bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan
Iranian forces launched several drone and missile attacks on US military bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan, which were intercepted but increased regional tensions and prompted further US strikes on Iranian targets.
US launches new wave of strikes on Iranian command centers and missile sites
8 jumps to 47%12%
On July 15, 2026, US Central Command announced a new series of strikes targeting Iranian command centers, air defense sites, missile and drone capabilities, and coastal surveillance facilities. This continued focus on Iranian territory without expansion to other countries sustained market expectations of a single-country military action count.
U.S. launches multi-wave air campaign against Iranian military installations near Strait of Hormuz
9 rises to 34%1%
CENTCOM conducted sustained air and maritime strikes targeting Iranian missile, drone, and coastal defense sites, escalating the conflict and confirming continued U.S. military action on Iranian soil. This event reinforced market confidence in a limited number of countries struck, primarily Iran and Syria.
US launches new strikes on Iranian command and missile sites amid ongoing conflict
8 jumps to 41%5%
US Central Command announced a new wave of strikes targeting Iranian command centers, air defense, missile, and drone capabilities to reduce Iran's ability to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, continuing the pattern of US military action focused solely on Iran.
US launches multiple airstrikes on Iranian military sites near Strait of Hormuz
8 jumps to 33%5%
On July 15, 2026, US forces struck Iranian command centers, air defense sites, missile and drone capabilities, and coastal surveillance facilities near Bandar Abbas and Greater Tunb Island, intensifying the conflict in Iran.
U.S. military launches massive multi-wave air campaign against Iranian missile and drone sites
10 dips to 13%1%
CENTCOM conducted a massive multi-wave air and maritime campaign targeting Iranian missile, drone, and coastal defense sites near the Strait of Hormuz, marking the most intense escalation of direct U.S. kinetic warfare on Iranian soil in 2026.
US launches multiple strikes across Iran; Iran attacks US military facilities in Jordan
The US conducted another wave of strikes targeting Iranian command centers and missile sites. Iran responded with drone attacks on US military bases in Jordan, confirming US military action on Jordanian soil and expanding the conflict's geographic scope.
U.S. conducts massive 5-hour precision strike across Iran amid escalating conflict
10 dips to 9%2%
The U.S. military carried out a highly coordinated, extensive airstrike campaign targeting numerous Iranian military assets deep within Iran, confirming ongoing and significant U.S. military action on Iranian soil in 2026.
U.S. military completes another wave of strikes against Iran
The U.S. military completed another wave of air and missile strikes targeting Iranian military facilities, including missile launch sites and infrastructure, continuing sustained military operations on Iranian soil.
US uses one-way attack sea drones to strike Iranian port of Bandar Abbas
The US employed one-way attack sea drones in combat for the first time to strike the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas, marking a new method of drone warfare in the ongoing conflict with Iran.
US targets Iranian port Bandar Abbas with one-way attack drones
8 jumps to 34%7%
The US employed one-way attack sea drones in combat for the first time to strike the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas, further demonstrating US military action on Iranian soil and the use of advanced drone technology.
US uses one-way attack drones to strike Iranian port of Bandar Abbas
8 jumps to 59%12%
On July 14, 2026, the US military employed one-way attack sea drones in combat for the first time, striking the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas, marking a new phase in US drone warfare capabilities and military action in Iran.
US uses one-way sea drones in combat for first time to attack Iranian naval base
8 jumps to 46%10%
On July 14, 2026, US Central Command announced the first combat use of unmanned sea drones in an attack on the Bandar Abbas Naval Base in Iran, marking a new phase in US military strikes against Iran.
U.S. retaliatory airstrikes hit 140 Iranian military targets amid regional escalation
10 dips to 14%2%
CENTCOM launched multi-wave airstrikes on approximately 140 military targets inside Iran, including coastal radar, air-defense installations, and IRGC small boats, further intensifying U.S. military operations on Iranian soil and impacting market expectations.
US uses sea drones in combat for first time to attack Iranian naval base
US Central Command announced the first combat use of unmanned sea drones in an attack on the Bandar Abbas Naval Base, marking a new phase in US military operations against Iran and reinforcing the US presence and strike capability on Iranian soil.
US completes another round of strikes on Iran targeting multiple military sites
8 jumps to 35%5%
On July 13, 2026, US forces conducted a five-hour mission striking military targets across Iran including Bushehr, Chah Bahar, Jask, Konarak, Abu Musa, and Bandar Abbas to further degrade Iran’s ability to attack commercial shipping, continuing focus on Iranian territory.
US AFRICOM conducts airstrikes targeting al-Shabaab in Somalia
In July 2026, US Africa Command conducted multiple airstrikes targeting al-Shabaab militants in Somalia, reflecting an intensified US counterterrorism campaign in the region. These strikes confirm Somalia as a country where the US conducted military air operations in 2026.
US resumes strikes on Iran as Iran targets US military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain
9 drops to 34%5%
The US conducted another round of strikes against Iran targeting multiple military sites, while Iran retaliated with missile and drone attacks on US military facilities in Kuwait and Bahrain, expanding the conflict to multiple countries' territories.
U.S. employs sea drones in combat for first time striking Iranian naval base
9 rises to 34%3%
U.S. Central Command used autonomous sea drones to strike a submarine and ship maintenance facility at Bandar Abbas naval base in Iran, marking a new method of attack but still confined to Iranian soil.
US uses one-way attack sea drones in combat for first time against Iranian naval base
8 rises to 39%4%
The US military employed unmanned sea drones to strike the Bandar Abbas Naval Base in Iran, marking a new phase of aerial and drone strikes on Iranian territory.
U.S. completes five-hour mission striking multiple Iranian military targets
The U.S. conducted a five-hour mission striking military targets across Iran including Bushehr, Chah Bahar, Jask, Konarak, Abu Musa, and Bandar Abbas to degrade Iran’s ability to attack commercial shipping. This continued focus on Iranian territory confirmed market expectations of limited country involvement.
U.S. resumes airstrikes on Iran after Iranian missile attacks on Gulf allies
Following Iranian missile and drone attacks on U.S. allies Kuwait and Bahrain, the U.S. resumed airstrikes on Iranian military targets, escalating the conflict further.
US resumes strikes on Iranian targets amid escalating regional tensions
8 jumps to 38%6%
The U.S. conducted a wave of airstrikes against Iranian military targets near the Strait of Hormuz, including missile and drone sites, as tensions escalated with Iran and its regional proxies.
US uses unmanned sea drones in combat for first time to attack Iranian naval base
8 jumps to 38%12%
The US military employed one-way attack sea drones for the first time in combat, striking the Bandar Abbas Naval Base in Iran, demonstrating advanced drone warfare capabilities and intensifying the air campaign against Iran.
US uses one-way attack sea drones to strike Iranian port of Bandar Abbas
8 rises to 31%4%
The US conducted its first combat use of maritime strike drones against a submarine and ship-maintenance facility at Bandar Abbas, Iran, expanding the scope of US military strikes on Iranian territory.
Iran attacks Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, and Qatar with missiles and drones after US strikes
On July 12, 2026, Iran launched missile and drone attacks on Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, and Qatar in retaliation for US strikes, expanding the conflict's geographic scope and involving multiple countries in the region.
Iran attacks Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, and Qatar with drones and missiles after US strikes
8 rises to 28%2%
In response to US strikes, Iran launched missile and drone attacks on US military and allied facilities in Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, and Qatar, marking a widening of the conflict to multiple countries' territories and increasing regional tensions.
US uses maritime strike drones to attack submarine and ship-maintenance facility at Bandar Abbas, Iran
11 rises to 7%3%
CENTCOM employed maritime strike drones in combat for the first time targeting Iranian facilities at Bandar Abbas, marking a new form of US military aerial strike on Iranian soil.
US launches second night of strikes on Iran targeting air defenses and drones
9 rises to 35%4%
On July 12, 2026, CENTCOM forces struck Iranian air defense systems, coastal radar sites, missile and drone capabilities, and small boats using various US military assets, continuing the aerial campaign against Iran.
US conducts second night of strikes on Iranian air defense and missile sites
On July 12, 2026, US Central Command announced strikes on Iranian air defense systems, coastal radar sites, missile and drone capabilities, and small boats, marking a sustained US military campaign against Iran.
US conducts first combat employment of maritime strike drones against Iranian facilities
On July 12, 2026, the US used maritime strike drones to attack a submarine and ship-maintenance facility at Bandar Abbas, Iran, marking a new phase of drone warfare and US military action on Iranian soil.
Iran attacks Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, and Qatar with drones and missiles after US strikes
On July 12, 2026, Iran launched missile and drone attacks on Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, and Qatar in response to US strikes, indicating US military action in these countries' territories and escalating regional conflict.
U.S. launches second night of strikes on Iran including new drone types
8 jumps to 41%5%
On July 12, 2026, CENTCOM forces conducted strikes on Iranian air defense systems, missile and drone capabilities, and small boats using fighter planes, naval vessels, and one-way attack drones, marking the first combat use of maritime strike drones and expanding the scope of U.S. military actions in Iran.
US conducts first combat use of maritime strike drones against Iranian facilities
8 jumps to 43%7%
The US Central Command used Corsair one-way attack surface drones to strike a submarine and ship-maintenance facility at Bandar Abbas, Iran, marking a new phase in drone warfare and expanding US military actions on Iranian soil.
US uses maritime strike drones against Iranian facilities at Bandar Abbas
On July 12, 2026, the US employed maritime strike drones in combat for the first time against a submarine and ship-maintenance facility in Bandar Abbas, Iran, demonstrating continued US military action on Iranian territory.
US launches strikes on Iran using fighter planes and one-way attack drones
8 jumps to 16%9%
On July 12, 2026, US CENTCOM forces conducted strikes on Iranian air defense systems, missile and drone capabilities, and small boats using fighter planes and one-way attack drones. This demonstrated the US expanding its drone strike capabilities in Iran, maintaining military pressure on Iranian territory.
U.S. uses one-way attack sea drones to strike Iranian port of Bandar Abbas
8 surges to 68%33%
On July 12, 2026, the U.S. employed one-way attack sea drones in combat for the first time, targeting a submarine and ship-maintenance facility at Bandar Abbas, Iran. This demonstrated an escalation in U.S. drone warfare capabilities and continued military action on Iranian soil.
US conducts first combat use of maritime strike drones against Iranian facilities at Bandar Abbas
The US employed maritime strike drones in combat for the first time targeting a submarine and ship-maintenance facility in Bandar Abbas, Iran, continuing US military actions on Iranian territory in 2026.
Iran retaliates with missile and drone attacks on Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, and Qatar
In response to US strikes, Iran launched missile and drone attacks on US military installations and allied countries including Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, and Qatar, expanding the conflict to multiple countries in the Gulf region.
US launches multiple strikes on Iran; Iran retaliates with missile and drone attacks on Gulf states
8 plunges to 1%22%
On July 12, 2026, the US conducted a major round of strikes on Iranian military targets, hitting about 140 sites. Iran responded with missile and drone attacks on US military bases in Kuwait, Jordan, Oman, Qatar, Bahrain, and the UAE, expanding the conflict's geographic scope but US strikes remained confined to Iran.
US conducts second night of strikes on Iran targeting air defenses and drones
9 jumps to 47%7%
On July 12, 2026, US Central Command announced strikes on Iranian air defense systems, coastal radar sites, missile and drone capabilities, and small boats, continuing the military campaign against Iran. This reinforced the ongoing US military presence and action in Iran.
US uses maritime strike drones against Iranian facilities at Bandar Abbas
The US conducted its first combat employment of maritime strike drones targeting a submarine and ship-maintenance facility in Bandar Abbas, Iran, marking a new phase in drone warfare and continuing US strikes on Iranian territory.
U.S. launches second night of strikes on Iran targeting air defenses and maritime capabilities
U.S. Central Command reported strikes on Iranian air defense systems, coastal radar sites, missile and drone capabilities, and small boats using fighter planes, naval vessels, and attack drones. Despite Iranian retaliatory strikes on U.S. bases in the Gulf, no U.S. strikes on other countries were confirmed, keeping market focus on Iran.
US conducts second night of strikes on Iranian air defense and missile sites
11 drops to 34%5%
On July 12, 2026, US Central Command announced strikes on Iranian air defense systems, missile and drone capabilities, and coastal radar sites, continuing the military campaign against Iran. Iranian retaliatory strikes targeted Gulf countries, maintaining regional conflict dynamics.
US conducts strikes on Iranian air defense and drone capabilities using new one-way attack drones
9 jumps to 44%5%
On July 12, 2026, US Central Command announced strikes on Iranian air defense systems, coastal radar sites, missile and drone capabilities, and small boats using fighter planes, naval vessels, and one-way attack aerial and sea drones for the first time. This demonstrated an expansion of US drone strike capabilities in the conflict.
US launches second night of strikes on Iran targeting air defenses and missile capabilities
On July 12, 2026, CENTCOM forces conducted strikes on Iranian air defense systems, coastal radar sites, missile and drone capabilities, and small boats using fighter planes, naval vessels, and one-way attack drones, continuing the military campaign against Iran.
US launches second night of strikes on Iran using drones and fighter planes
8 surges to 68%27%
On July 12, 2026, CENTCOM forces struck Iranian air defense systems, missile and drone capabilities, and small boats using fighter planes and one-way attack drones. This marked the first combat use of maritime strike drones by the US, confirming ongoing strikes on Iranian territory.
US uses unmanned sea drones in combat for first time to attack Iranian naval base
The US military employed one-way attack sea drones to strike a submarine and ship maintenance facility at Bandar Abbas Naval Base in Iran, marking a new phase of drone warfare on Iranian soil.
US launches multiple airstrikes on Iran following Iranian drone and missile attacks on Gulf US bases
In early July 2026, the US conducted extensive airstrikes on Iranian military sites after Iran launched missile and drone attacks on US military installations in Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, Oman, and Qatar, escalating the conflict across multiple countries' territories.
US launches second night of strikes on Iran targeting air defense and missile sites
The US conducted a second consecutive night of strikes on Iranian military command centers, air defense, missile and drone launch sites, and coastal surveillance, using fighter planes, naval vessels, and one-way attack drones. This sustained campaign reinforced US military presence and action on Iranian soil.
US CENTCOM forces strike Iranian air defense systems, missile and drone capabilities
8 rises to 43%2%
US CENTCOM forces conducted strikes on Iranian air defense systems, coastal radar sites, missile and drone capabilities using fighter planes and naval vessels, continuing the US military campaign against Iran in 2026.
US launches second night of strikes on Iran targeting air defenses and missile capabilities
11 rises to 32%3%
CENTCOM forces struck Iranian air defense systems, coastal radar sites, missile and drone capabilities, and small boats using various platforms. This sustained US military action on Iranian territory reinforced the ongoing conflict and market expectations.
US conducts major overnight strikes on Iran; Iran fires missiles and drones at Gulf states
The US launched strikes on about 140 Iranian military sites overnight, escalating the conflict. Iran retaliated with missile and drone attacks on Gulf states including Kuwait, Oman, Jordan, UAE, and Qatar, highlighting the regional scope of hostilities and potential US military responses.
Iran closes Strait of Hormuz and launches missile and drone attacks on Gulf countries in response to US strikes
8 jumps to 26%14%
Iran retaliated against US strikes by closing the Strait of Hormuz and launching missile and drone attacks on Gulf countries, escalating regional tensions and prompting further US military responses targeting Iranian military infrastructure.
US conducts second night of strikes on Iranian air defense and missile sites
8 dips to 35%3%
CENTCOM forces struck Iranian air defense systems, coastal radar sites, missile and drone capabilities, and small boats using various platforms. Iranian state media reported casualties and damage, indicating sustained US military operations in Iran and ongoing regional tensions.
US conducts first combat employment of maritime strike drones against Iranian facilities at Bandar Abbas
9 rises to 33%1%
The US used maritime strike drones to attack a submarine and ship-maintenance facility in Iran, demonstrating advanced drone warfare capabilities and continuing US military action on Iranian territory.
US launches second night of strikes on Iran targeting air defenses and drones
10 dips to 14%2%
CENTCOM forces conducted strikes on Iranian air defense systems, coastal radar sites, missile and drone capabilities, and small boats, continuing the US aerial campaign on Iranian territory and escalating the conflict.
US launches strikes on Iran for a second night targeting air defenses and missile capabilities
CENTCOM forces struck Iranian air defense systems, coastal radar sites, missile and drone capabilities, and small boats using fighter planes, naval vessels, and drones. This sustained US military action on Iranian soil and the surrounding region contributed to the ongoing conflict involving multiple countries.
US uses one-way maritime strike drones to attack Iranian port of Bandar Abbas
8 rises to 31%4%
The US employed maritime strike drones in combat for the first time on July 12, 2026, targeting a submarine and ship-maintenance facility at Bandar Abbas, Iran, marking a new phase of drone warfare and confirming US military action on Iranian territory.
US conducts first combat maritime drone strike on Iranian port Bandar Abbas
8 rises to 30%4%
On July 12, 2026, the US used maritime strike drones to attack a submarine and ship-maintenance facility at Bandar Abbas, Iran. This marked a new form of US military action on Iranian soil, reinforcing the count of countries struck.
US conducts first-ever sea drone strike on Iranian port of Bandar Abbas
8 jumps to 35%8%
The US military employed sea drones in combat for the first time to strike the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas, marking a new phase in drone warfare and US military operations on Iranian soil. This novel tactic increased market confidence in continued US strikes in Iran.
U.S. launches massive five-hour precision airstrikes across Iran amid Strait of Hormuz crisis
9 rises to 31%4%
The U.S. military conducted a coordinated five-hour wave of airstrikes targeting Iranian military assets deep within Iran, including missile and drone sites, further escalating the conflict but maintaining strikes solely on Iranian territory.
US employs maritime strike drones against Iranian naval facilities
8 jumps to 41%6%
On July 12, 2026, the US used maritime strike drones to attack a submarine and ship-maintenance facility at Bandar Abbas, Iran, marking a new phase of drone warfare and confirming US military strikes on Iranian territory.
US launches new wave of strikes against Iran targeting air defenses and missile capabilities
On July 12, 2026, the US conducted a new wave of precision strikes against Iranian air defense systems, missile and drone capabilities, and coastal radar sites, marking continued military engagement in Iran.
US launches strikes on Iranian air defense and missile sites using drones and fighter planes
8 surges to 26%25%
CENTCOM forces conducted strikes on Iranian air defense systems, missile and drone capabilities, and coastal radar sites using fighter planes and one-way attack drones, marking the first combat use of maritime strike drones by the US in the conflict.
US maritime strike drones attack Iranian port Bandar Abbas
On July 12, 2026, the US used maritime strike drones to attack a submarine and ship-maintenance facility at Bandar Abbas, Iran, marking a new form of US military action on Iranian territory.
U.S. uses maritime strike drones to attack Iranian port at Bandar Abbas
8 jumps to 42%6%
On July 12, 2026, CENTCOM employed maritime strike drones in combat for the first time, targeting a submarine and ship-maintenance facility at Bandar Abbas, Iran, marking a tactical evolution in U.S. drone warfare capabilities against Iranian military infrastructure.
U.S. uses one-way attack sea drones in combat for first time to strike Iranian port
The U.S. military employed one-way attack sea drones in combat for the first time, striking the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas, demonstrating a new method of aerial strike on Iranian soil.
US Central Command uses one-way attack drones to strike Iranian port Bandar Abbas
8 rises to 28%3%
On July 12, 2026, the US military used one-way attack sea drones in combat for the first time to strike the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas, marking a significant escalation in drone warfare against Iran.
US uses maritime strike drones to attack submarine and ship-maintenance facility in Bandar Abbas, Iran
8 surges to 56%15%
On July 12, the US employed maritime strike drones against Iranian facilities in Bandar Abbas, marking a significant use of drone warfare on Iranian soil and demonstrating continued US military operations in multiple countries.
US conducts multiple strikes on Iranian air defense and missile sites amid renewed Gulf tensions
10 dips to 13%1%
US Central Command conducted several strikes targeting Iranian air defense systems, missile and drone capabilities, and small boats near the Strait of Hormuz. These strikes were part of ongoing military operations in Iran and contributed to the continued escalation of the conflict.
U.S. launches strikes destroying Iranian missile launchers and drones
8 rises to 35%4%
On July 11–12, 2026, U.S. forces conducted precision strikes targeting Iranian missile launchers and drones to degrade Iran’s ability to threaten shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz, continuing the military campaign on Iranian territory.
US launches airstrikes on Iranian missile launchers and drones
9 jumps to 40%10%
On July 11-12, 2026, US forces conducted airstrikes targeting Iranian missile launchers and drones to degrade Iran's ability to threaten shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz. This sustained US military action in Iran maintained market expectations for multiple strikes in the region.
US strikes Iranian missile launchers and drones to degrade regional threats
8 rises to 30%4%
On July 11–12, 2026, US military strikes targeted Iranian missile launchers and drones to reduce threats to shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz, demonstrating US precision strike capabilities and escalating the ongoing conflict.
US launches strikes on Iranian missile launchers and drones to protect Gulf shipping lanes
11 jumps to 39%9%
On July 11-12, 2026, US forces conducted strikes targeting Iranian missile launchers and drones to degrade Iran's ability to threaten shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz. This continued US military action on Iranian soil reinforced market views of sustained conflict with Iran.
US launches strikes on Iran targeting missile launchers and drones
12 jumps to 15%10%
US military strikes targeted Iranian missile launchers and drones to degrade Iran's ability to threaten shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz, continuing the 2026 Iran war campaign and maintaining pressure on Iranian military capabilities.
US destroys Iranian missile launchers and drones in campaign to secure Strait of Hormuz
10 drops to 15%8%
US strikes targeted Iranian missile launchers and drones to degrade Iran’s ability to threaten shipping lanes, demonstrating ongoing US military operations on Iranian soil and maintaining pressure in the region.
US strikes destroy Iranian missile launchers and drones to degrade threat in Strait of Hormuz
Between July 11-12, 2026, US airstrikes targeted Iranian missile launchers and drones to reduce Iran's ability to threaten shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz, demonstrating US military precision and escalating the regional conflict.
US strikes destroy Iranian missile launchers and drones to degrade threat to shipping lanes
9 dips to 15%3%
US military strikes targeted and destroyed Iranian missile launchers and drones in open areas to reduce Iran's ability to threaten shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz, demonstrating ongoing US military operations on Iranian territory and maintaining pressure in the conflict.
US destroys Iranian missile launchers and drones to protect Gulf shipping lanes
11 rises to 29%3%
US strikes focused on degrading Iran’s missile and drone capabilities near the Strait of Hormuz, aiming to protect shipping lanes. This military action on Iranian soil continued the campaign and maintained pressure on Iran's regional influence.
US strikes destroy Iranian missile launchers and drones in Gulf region
US military strikes targeted and destroyed Iranian missile launchers and drones in open areas focused on degrading Iran’s ability to threaten shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz. This continued US military action in Iranian territory and the Gulf region sustained the conflict's geographic scope.
U.S. strikes destroy Iranian missile launchers and drones in ongoing campaign
8 rises to 35%4%
U.S. military strikes targeted and destroyed Iranian missile launchers and drones to degrade Iran's ability to threaten shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz, continuing U.S. military operations on Iranian territory and influencing market perceptions of the conflict's scope.
US launches multiple airstrikes targeting Iranian missile launchers and drones
US Central Command released footage of strikes destroying Iranian missile launchers and drones, part of an ongoing campaign to degrade Iran's military capabilities, confirming sustained US military action in Iran.
US airstrikes destroy Iranian missile launchers and drones
9 rises to 31%3%
Between July 11 and 12, 2026, US strikes targeted and destroyed Iranian missile launchers and drones to degrade Iran’s ability to threaten shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz, demonstrating ongoing US military operations on Iranian soil.
US airstrikes destroy Iranian missile launchers and drones in Gulf region
Between July 11 and 12, 2026, US forces conducted precision strikes targeting Iranian missile launchers and drones to degrade Iran’s ability to threaten shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz, demonstrating ongoing US military action on Iranian soil and sustaining market pressure.
US launches strikes destroying Iranian missile launchers and drones in 2026 campaign
8 jumps to 41%6%
US military strikes targeted and destroyed Iranian missile launchers and drones in open areas as part of the ongoing 2026 Iran war campaign, further confirming US military action on Iranian soil during the year.
US airstrikes destroy Iranian missile launchers and drones in Gulf campaign
8 rises to 41%4%
On July 11-12, 2026, US strikes targeted and destroyed Iranian missile launchers and drones to degrade Iran's ability to threaten shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz. This demonstrated continued US military action on Iranian soil, reinforcing market pricing for strikes in Iran.
US conducts strikes destroying Iranian missile launchers and drones near Strait of Hormuz
US military strikes targeted and destroyed Iranian missile launchers and drones in a campaign aimed at degrading Iran's threat to shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz, demonstrating US precision strike capability and ongoing military engagement on Iranian territory.
US launches precision strikes on Iranian missile launchers and drones
8 jumps to 38%12%
On July 11-12, US forces targeted and destroyed Iranian missile launchers and drones to degrade Iran’s ability to threaten shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz. This demonstrated ongoing US military operations in Iran and contributed to market expectations of multiple countries involved in the conflict.
US destroys Iranian missile launchers and drones in precision strikes
US strikes focused on degrading Iran's missile and drone capabilities near the Strait of Hormuz, demonstrating precision targeting and escalating the ongoing military campaign against Iran.
U.S. airstrikes destroy Iranian missile launchers and drones in Gulf campaign
8 surges to 36%21%
Between July 11 and 12, 2026, U.S. strikes targeted Iranian missile launchers and drones to degrade Iran's ability to threaten shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz, demonstrating continued U.S. military operations on Iranian territory and maintaining pressure in the region.
US strikes destroy Iranian missile launchers and drones near Strait of Hormuz
8 jumps to 35%5%
On July 11-12, 2026, US strikes targeted and destroyed Iranian missile launchers and drones to degrade Iran's ability to threaten shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz. This continued US military campaign against Iran reinforced market expectations of multiple strikes in 2026.
US missile strikes near Bushehr nuclear plant in Iran disrupt regional flights
US missile strikes targeted military assets near the Bushehr nuclear power plant in southern Iran, causing explosions and flight disruptions in neighboring countries, further intensifying the US-Iran conflict.
US launches ninth consecutive night of airstrikes targeting Iranian missile and drone sites
The US conducted a ninth straight night of airstrikes on Iranian military sites including missile launchers and drone storage, aiming to degrade Iran's military capabilities and maintain pressure in the ongoing conflict.
U.S. strikes destroy Iranian missile launchers and drones to degrade threat in Strait of Hormuz
U.S. military strikes targeted and destroyed Iranian missile launchers and drones to reduce threats to shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz, continuing the air campaign in Iran.
US strikes Iranian missile launchers and drones to degrade threat to shipping lanes
9 jumps to 34%7%
On July 11-12, 2026, US forces targeted Iranian missile launchers and drones to reduce Iran's ability to threaten shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz, demonstrating ongoing US military operations on Iranian soil and escalating regional conflict.
US launches strikes destroying Iranian missile launchers and drones near Strait of Hormuz
On July 11-12, 2026, US forces conducted precision strikes destroying Iranian missile launchers and drones to degrade Iran's ability to threaten shipping lanes, continuing the campaign of military action on Iranian soil.
US intensifies strikes on Iran’s coast along Strait of Hormuz
8 dips to 1%3%
On July 9, 2026, US forces hit approximately 90 targets mostly along Iran’s coastline near the Strait of Hormuz, stepping up bombing campaigns after President Trump declared the truce agreement over. Iran retaliated by firing missiles and drones at US military sites in partner countries, but US strikes remained focused on Iranian territory.
US launches extensive strikes on Iranian military targets; Iran retaliates against Gulf allies
9 jumps to 34%6%
The US struck approximately 90 military targets in Iran, including missile and drone storage and logistics sites. Iran responded with missile and drone attacks on US-allied countries including Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan, indicating the conflict's regional expansion and potential for US strikes in these countries.
US strikes approximately 90 military targets along Iran’s coastline
9 rises to 32%2%
On July 9, 2026, US Central Command reported strikes on about 90 military targets including missile and drone storage and logistics sites along Iran’s coast. This continued military pressure in Iran and surrounding regions influenced market expectations for the number of countries targeted.
US missile strikes near Bushehr nuclear plant in Iran disrupt regional flights
8 jumps to 40%9%
On July 9, 2026, US missile strikes targeted military assets near the Bushehr nuclear plant in Iran, causing regional flight disruptions and marking continued US military action on Iranian soil.
U.S. strikes approximately 90 Iranian military targets along the coast
11 plunges to 7%40%
U.S. Central Command announced strikes on about 90 Iranian military targets including missile and drone storage and logistics sites along Iran’s coastline, marking a significant escalation of U.S. military action on Iranian soil.
U.S. launches extensive strikes on approximately 90 Iranian military targets
8 drops to 30%5%
American forces struck around 90 Iranian military targets including air defense systems, drone and missile storage sites, and logistics infrastructure along the coast. Iran responded with drone and missile attacks on U.S. bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, further escalating tensions.
US conducts additional strikes on Iran amid escalating tensions
9 rises to 35%3%
On July 8, 2026, US Central Command announced additional strikes against Iran to degrade its ability to threaten freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian forces responded with missile and drone attacks on US bases in Bahrain and Kuwait, expanding the conflict to multiple countries in the region and impacting market pricing.
US resumes strikes on Iran targeting missile and drone sites
8 rises to 26%3%
On July 8, 2026, the US military struck approximately 90 Iranian military targets including air defense systems, drone and missile storage sites, and logistics infrastructure along Iran’s coastline to degrade Iran’s ability to attack commercial shipping.
Iran claims drone strikes on US-linked military sites in Bahrain and Kuwait
Iran announced drone and missile strikes on US military facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait on July 8, 2026, indicating ongoing conflict and US military presence in multiple countries, which influenced market expectations for the number of countries targeted by US strikes.
IRGC launches drone and missile attacks on US bases in Gulf states
8 drops to 25%9%
Iran's IRGC attacked US military infrastructure in Kuwait and Bahrain with drones and missiles, reflecting ongoing conflict and US military presence in multiple countries' territories.
US launches new airstrikes on Iran; Iran retaliates against Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and Jordan
8 rises to 35%2%
The US conducted another round of airstrikes targeting Iranian military infrastructure, including air defense and missile sites. Iran responded by launching missile and drone attacks on US military bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and Jordan, further escalating the conflict and threatening the fragile ceasefire.
Iran claims drone strikes on US-linked military sites in Bahrain and Kuwait
Iran claimed retaliatory drone and missile strikes against US-linked military facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait following US strikes on Iranian territory. This expanded the conflict to multiple Gulf states, increasing the number of countries where US military actions were involved either directly or indirectly.
Iran targets US military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain in response to US strikes
Iran's IRGC launched drone and missile attacks on US military infrastructure in Kuwait and Bahrain, demonstrating ongoing retaliatory strikes on these countries' territories and confirming their involvement in the conflict with the US.
US launches extensive strikes on around 90 Iranian military targets
The US conducted a large-scale airstrike campaign targeting approximately 90 Iranian military sites including air defense systems and logistics infrastructure, further intensifying military actions on Iranian soil and reinforcing the market's view of US strikes in Iran.
U.S. launches extensive airstrikes on Iranian military targets along Strait of Hormuz
8 dips to 20%1%
The U.S. military struck around 90 Iranian military targets including air defense systems, drone and missile storage sites, and logistics infrastructure. This large-scale strike further confirmed the U.S. focus on Iranian territory only, with no reported strikes on other countries' soil.
Iran claims drone strikes on US-linked military sites in Bahrain and Kuwait
Iran launched drone and missile strikes against US-linked military facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait in retaliation for US strikes on Iran. These attacks on US bases in Bahrain and Kuwait confirm US military involvement and strikes on these countries' soil during 2026.
U.S. completes strikes on approximately 90 Iranian military targets
9 rises to 14%1%
The U.S. military struck around 90 Iranian military targets including air defense systems, drone and missile storage sites, and logistics infrastructure to degrade Iran's ability to attack commercial shipping. Iran responded with missile and drone attacks on U.S. bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, but no U.S. strikes on other countries were reported, reinforcing market expectations of limited country count.
CENTCOM launches retaliatory strikes on over 80 Iranian targets in Strait of Hormuz region
10 jumps to 29%13%
In response to Iranian attacks on commercial vessels, U.S. Central Command conducted extensive airstrikes targeting Iranian air defense, command networks, coastal radar, and IRGC naval boats along the Iranian coastline and islands, marking a major escalation and confirming multiple strikes on Iranian territory.
Trump declares US-Iran Islamabad MOU peace deal over after Persian Gulf airstrikes
10 rises to 32%3%
Following the U.S. airstrikes on Iranian military targets, President Trump announced the collapse of the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding with Iran, signaling the end of diplomatic efforts and a return to open conflict, reinforcing market expectations of ongoing U.S. military actions in Iran.
U.S. Central Command conducts extensive retaliatory strikes on over 80 Iranian targets
9 rises to 28%3%
In response to Iranian attacks on commercial vessels, U.S. forces launched airstrikes targeting Iranian coastal radar, missile sites, and IRGC fast-attack craft along Iran's southern coastline and islands, reaffirming that U.S. strikes remained confined to Iranian soil.
U.S. launches strikes on over 80 targets in southern Iran amid escalating conflict
8 jumps to 14%6%
CENTCOM reported precision strikes on more than 80 targets in southern Iran, including air defense and missile sites, in response to Iranian attacks on commercial vessels, further intensifying U.S. military action in Iran.
US hits over 80 Iranian military targets and reimposes oil sanctions
The US military struck more than 80 Iranian military targets in retaliation for attacks on commercial ships, with no reports of strikes on other countries, reinforcing the market's view of limited geographic scope of US strikes.
CENTCOM Launches Massive Wave of Strikes Against 80 Iranian Targets
8 rises to 35%1%
U.S. Central Command executed heavy airstrikes against over 80 Iranian military targets along the coastline in response to attacks on commercial vessels.
US executes counter-offensive strikes on over 80 military positions inside Iran
8 rises to 39%1%
On July 7, 2026, US Central Command confirmed a series of precision-guided munitions strikes on more than 80 military targets inside Iran, focusing on dismantling Tehran's maritime offensive capabilities. This reinforced US military presence and action on Iranian soil during 2026.
US executes counter-offensive strikes on over 80 military positions inside Iran
15+ rises to 41%3%
On July 7, 2026, US Central Command confirmed precision-guided strikes on numerous Iranian military sites, marking a significant escalation and continuation of US military action on Iranian territory.
US launches new strikes on Iran after reinstating oil sanctions over shipping attacks
9 rises to 35%3%
On July 7, 2026, the US military launched a new wave of strikes against Iran targeting air defense systems, coastal surveillance, surface-to-air missiles, and drone launch sites following attacks on commercial shipping. This further intensified the conflict and influenced market expectations for US military actions in the region.
US launches strikes on over 80 Iranian targets in southern Iran
US Central Command reported strikes on more than 80 Iranian targets with precision munitions, aiming to degrade Iran's military capabilities and respond to Iranian attacks on commercial vessels, further intensifying US military actions on Iranian soil.
US hits over 80 Iranian targets and reimposes oil sanctions amid escalating conflict
11 jumps to 26%12%
The US launched a series of powerful strikes against Iran, targeting military sites, and reimposed sanctions on Iranian oil sales. Iran responded with missile and drone attacks on US military sites in Bahrain and Kuwait, further involving these countries in the conflict.
US strikes over 80 military positions inside Iran with precision-guided munitions
In early July 2026, US Central Command confirmed a series of counter-offensives striking more than 80 military positions inside Iran, focusing on dismantling Tehran's maritime offensive capabilities. This continued US military action on Iranian soil reinforced the ongoing conflict and US engagement in multiple countries.
U.S. launches heavy airstrikes on over 80 Iranian targets along southern coastline
9 jumps to 33%5%
CENTCOM executed two waves of airstrikes targeting Iranian military infrastructure including coastal radar, missile batteries, and IRGC fast-attack craft near the Strait of Hormuz. This confirmed Iran as a second country targeted by U.S. strikes in 2026, reinforcing market expectations for a low single-digit count of countries struck.
US Central Command launches massive airstrikes on over 80 Iranian targets along southern coast
10 rises to 14%1%
In response to Iranian attacks on commercial vessels, US forces launched extensive airstrikes on Iranian military infrastructure along the southern coast, including radar, missile sites, and naval assets. This large-scale operation reaffirmed US military action on Iranian soil and escalated the conflict.
Iran claims drone strikes on US-linked military sites in Bahrain and Kuwait
In July 2026, Iran claimed drone and missile strikes on US military facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait in retaliation for US strikes on Iranian targets, indicating ongoing hostilities involving multiple countries' territories.
US Central Command launches retaliatory strikes on over 80 Iranian targets along southern coast
8 surges to 35%26%
In response to attacks on commercial vessels, US forces struck numerous Iranian military targets along the southern coast and islands, confirming extensive US military action on Iranian soil and reinforcing the focus on Iran as the primary country targeted.
U.S. Central Command launches heavy airstrikes on Iranian military targets
10 dips to 11%2%
CENTCOM executed two waves of airstrikes against over 80 Iranian military targets along the southern coastline, including missile sites and naval assets, confirming extensive U.S. military action on Iranian soil in 2026. This significantly influenced market pricing toward fewer countries targeted, as Iran was the primary focus.
US launches renewed series of strikes against Iran amid escalating conflict
8 jumps to 35%5%
Starting July 7, 2026, the US military executed multiple rounds of strikes against Iranian military targets including command centers, missile and drone launch sites, and maritime capabilities. These strikes were part of an intensified campaign in the ongoing Iran war.
US launches over 80 strikes on Iranian targets, Iran vows crushing response
8 jumps to 33%7%
The US military conducted a large-scale strike hitting over 80 targets in southern Iran, including air defense systems and missile launch sites, in retaliation for attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran pledged a crushing response and subsequently launched missile and drone attacks on US military bases in Bahrain and Kuwait.
CENTCOM launches heavy airstrikes on Iranian coastal military targets
10 jumps to 16%5%
U.S. Central Command executed two waves of airstrikes against over 80 Iranian military targets along the southern coastline, including radar arrays, missile batteries, and IRGC fast-attack craft, significantly escalating U.S. military action on Iranian soil.
US Central Command conducts extensive airstrikes on over 80 Iranian military targets
8 jumps to 34%8%
On July 7-8, 2026, US CENTCOM launched two waves of heavy airstrikes against more than 80 targets along Iran's southern coastline, including missile batteries, radar arrays, and IRGC naval craft. This was a direct retaliation for Iranian attacks on commercial vessels and further confirmed Iran as the sole country targeted by US strikes in 2026.
US Unleashes Massive Wave of Strikes on 80 Targets in Iran
9 rises to 34%2%
The US military launched a major offensive striking over 80 targets along the Iranian coastline in response to attacks on commercial shipping, effectively ending the short-lived ceasefire.
Iranian Revolutionary Guard launches missile and drone strikes on US military sites in Gulf
8 jumps to 35%5%
The IRGC launched a coordinated barrage of ballistic missiles and drones targeting US military installations in Kuwait and Bahrain, breaching regional air defenses and escalating the conflict. This event highlighted US military involvement in multiple countries' territories, influencing market expectations.
Iran claims missile and drone strikes on US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain
9 jumps to 26%13%
Iran's IRGC claimed coordinated missile and drone strikes on eight US military sites in Kuwait and Bahrain, escalating the conflict to multiple countries hosting US forces. This increased the count of countries where US military action was relevant due to retaliatory strikes and counterstrikes.
Iran launches missile and drone strikes on US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain
11 jumps to 12%6%
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched coordinated missile and drone strikes targeting US military sites in Kuwait and Bahrain in retaliation for US strikes on Iranian positions. This expanded the conflict zone to include these Gulf countries as active strike locations.
Iran launches missile and drone strikes on US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain
10 rises to 3%1%
Iran's IRGC conducted coordinated missile and drone attacks on US military sites in Kuwait and Bahrain, confirming US military presence and engagement in these countries, thus increasing the count of countries where US military action is relevant.
U.S. Navy and Air Force strike 10 Iranian military targets after drone attack
8 rises to 27%4%
Following a second Iranian drone attack on a Panama-flagged oil tanker, U.S. Navy and Air Force fighter jets conducted coordinated precision strikes on multiple Iranian military targets near the Strait of Hormuz. This further confirmed U.S. military action limited to Iran, reinforcing market confidence in the outcome of 8 countries.
Iran launches joint missile and drone strikes on US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain
Iran retaliated with coordinated missile and drone attacks on US military sites in Kuwait and Bahrain on June 28, expanding the conflict's geographic scope and raising the possibility of US strikes on additional countries.
Iran claims missile and drone strikes on US bases in Bahrain and Kuwait
8 jumps to 39%8%
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed coordinated missile and drone strikes on eight US military sites in Kuwait and Bahrain, escalating the conflict and involving multiple countries where US military assets were targeted or involved in strikes.
US Navy and Air Force strike 10 Iranian military targets near Strait of Hormuz
In a coordinated operation, US Navy and Air Force fighter jets conducted precision strikes on multiple Iranian military targets near the Strait of Hormuz, marking a transition from maritime security operations to direct kinetic action against Iran on its territory.
Iran launches missile and drone strikes on US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain
9 drops to 30%6%
On June 28, 2026, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed coordinated missile and drone strikes on eight US military sites in Kuwait and Bahrain, escalating the conflict and involving multiple countries hosting US forces. This event contributed to market expectations of strikes in at least nine countries.
Iran retaliates with missile and drone strikes on US military sites in Kuwait and Bahrain
9 drops to 30%14%
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched missile and drone attacks targeting US military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, escalating regional conflict and confirming US military presence and action in these countries' territories.
Iranian missile and drone strikes target US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain
9 rises to 30%4%
Following US strikes on Iran, Iran launched missile and drone attacks targeting US military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. US forces responded with strikes on Iranian targets, confirming US military action in Kuwait and Bahrain territories in 2026.
Iran retaliates with missile and drone strikes on US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain
8 dips to 35%4%
Following US strikes in Iran, Iran launched missile and drone attacks targeting US military sites in Kuwait and Bahrain, escalating regional tensions but not increasing the count of countries struck by US.
Iran retaliates with missile and drone strikes on US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain
10 plunges to 15%22%
On June 28, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched missile and drone attacks targeting US military sites in Kuwait and Bahrain, expanding the conflict to additional countries and increasing regional instability.
Iran retaliates with missile and drone attacks on US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain
Following US strikes on Iran, Iran launched ballistic missiles and drones targeting US military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, causing injuries and damage. This expanded the conflict to additional countries hosting US forces, increasing the count of countries involved in US military actions.
Iranian missile and drone strike targets US military sites in Kuwait and Bahrain
9 jumps to 35%5%
On June 28, 2026, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched retaliatory missile and drone attacks on US military sites in Kuwait and Bahrain, escalating regional conflict and prompting US military responses on these countries' soil, thus increasing the count of countries where US military strikes occur.
US launches more strikes on Iranian sites around Strait of Hormuz
On June 27, 2026, the US military conducted additional strikes on Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites around the Strait of Hormuz, escalating the conflict further and reinforcing US military presence in the region.
US targets multiple Iranian military sites after tanker attack
8 rises to 28%1%
US military aircraft targeted Iranian surveillance infrastructure, communication systems, and drone storage facilities following an attack on a Panama-flagged merchant vessel, further intensifying US strikes on Iranian territory.
U.S. conducts additional strikes on Iranian military targets around Strait of Hormuz
9 rises to 30%2%
Following the previous day's strikes, the U.S. launched further attacks on Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites. Iran retaliated with missile and drone strikes on U.S. bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, but no U.S. strikes on these countries were reported, maintaining market focus on Iran alone.
Iran retaliates with missile and drone strikes on US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain
11 jumps to 35%7%
Following US strikes on Iran, Iran launched missile and drone attacks on US military facilities in Kuwait and Bahrain, escalating the conflict to additional countries and raising market expectations for the number of countries involved in US military actions.
US Central Command confirms strikes on Iranian military infrastructure after tanker attack
8 jumps to 24%6%
Following an Iranian drone attack on a Panama-flagged merchant vessel, US Central Command announced strikes on Iranian surveillance infrastructure, communication systems, and drone storage facilities, further intensifying the conflict.
Iran retaliates with missile and drone strikes on US bases in Bahrain and Kuwait
Following US strikes on Iran, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched missile and drone attacks on US military facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait, expanding the conflict to these countries' territories and increasing the count of countries involved in US military actions.
US conducts second night of strikes on Iran after another drone attack on commercial vessel
8 jumps to 15%10%
Following a second Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, the US launched additional airstrikes on Iranian military targets, further escalating the conflict in Iran.
US conducts further strikes on Iranian military targets around Strait of Hormuz
10 jumps to 12%10%
Following continued Iranian aggression, the US launched additional strikes on Iranian missile and drone storage sites and coastal radar installations, escalating military actions on Iranian soil and increasing regional tensions.
U.S. strikes multiple Iranian military targets in response to drone attack on cargo ship
10 plunges to 11%36%
In response to an Iranian drone attack on a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. Central Command launched strikes on Iranian military surveillance infrastructure and drone storage facilities, escalating military actions on Iranian soil.
US launches additional strikes on Iranian military targets; Iran retaliates in Kuwait and Bahrain
10 rises to 15%3%
Following US strikes on Iranian military sites, Iran launched missile and drone attacks on US military facilities in Kuwait and Bahrain, expanding the conflict to these countries and increasing the count of countries where US military action occurred.
US conducts additional strikes on Iranian military targets near Strait of Hormuz
Following continued Iranian aggression, the US launched further strikes on Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites, maintaining the focus on Iranian territory only.
US launches additional strikes on Iranian military targets around Strait of Hormuz
8 dips to 35%4%
Following the June 26 strikes, the US conducted further strikes on Iranian missile and drone storage and radar sites, escalating the conflict and confirming ongoing US military operations on Iranian territory in 2026.
US Central Command announces strikes on Iranian military infrastructure following tanker attack
Following an Iranian drone attack on a Panama-flagged merchant vessel, US Central Command announced strikes on Iranian surveillance, communication, and drone storage facilities on June 27, 2026, further confirming US military operations on Iranian territory.
U.S. conducts additional strikes on Iranian sites amid escalating regional tensions
Following initial strikes, the U.S. launched further attacks on Iranian missile and drone storage sites, prompting Iranian missile and drone retaliations against U.S. facilities in Kuwait and Bahrain, increasing the risk of wider conflict.
U.S. launches additional strikes on Iranian military targets around Strait of Hormuz
9 jumps to 35%5%
Following continued Iranian aggression, the U.S. conducted further airstrikes targeting Iranian military surveillance infrastructure, communication systems, and drone storage facilities. This confirmed ongoing U.S. military operations solely on Iranian soil.
US military conducts strikes on Iranian targets around Strait of Hormuz
On June 27, 2026, US aircraft struck Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites in response to Iranian aggression, further confirming ongoing US military operations on Iranian soil.
U.S. launches additional strikes on Iranian military targets around Strait of Hormuz
8 dips to 35%3%
The U.S. military conducted further strikes on Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites. Iran retaliated with missile and drone attacks on U.S. bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, escalating the conflict and threatening diplomatic processes.
Iran retaliates with drone and missile strikes on US bases in Bahrain and Kuwait
8 jumps to 31%5%
On June 27, 2026, Iran's Revolutionary Guards launched drone and ballistic missile strikes against US military targets in Bahrain and Kuwait, escalating the conflict and involving multiple countries' territories.
Iran retaliates with missile and drone strikes on US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain
In response to US strikes on Iran, Iranian forces launched missile and drone attacks on US military facilities in Kuwait and Bahrain on June 27, 2026, escalating the conflict to multiple countries' soil and affecting market expectations of US military engagements.
US launches strikes on Iranian missile and drone sites near Strait of Hormuz
The US conducted airstrikes targeting Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites in retaliation for an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel, escalating military actions on Iranian soil.
US and Iran announce retaliatory strikes in Iran, Kuwait, and Bahrain
8 drops to 6%5%
Following US strikes on Iranian military sites, Iran launched missile and drone attacks on US military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, causing injuries and damage. Despite these attacks on US forces in other countries, US retaliatory strikes remained limited to Iranian territory, keeping the number of countries struck by the US unchanged.
US launches additional strikes on Iranian targets amid rising regional tensions
9 jumps to 34%8%
Following the June 26 strikes, the US conducted further airstrikes on Iranian military infrastructure on June 27, 2026, in direct response to continued Iranian aggression, increasing the number of countries involved in the conflict due to Iranian retaliatory strikes on US facilities in Kuwait and Bahrain.
Iran retaliates with missile and drone strikes on US facilities in Kuwait and Bahrain
Following US strikes on Iranian targets, Iran launched missile and drone attacks on US military facilities in Kuwait and Bahrain. Kuwait's air defenses intercepted attacks, and there were no major US casualties reported. This escalation affected the market's outlook on the number of countries involved.
Iran retaliates with missile and drone strikes on US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain
Following US strikes on Iran, Iran launched missile and drone attacks on US military facilities in Kuwait and Bahrain, causing injuries and further escalating the conflict, but these were Iranian-initiated strikes, not US actions on other countries' soil.
U.S. launches strikes on Iranian missile and drone sites in retaliation for drone attack on commercial ship
8 jumps to 26%10%
The U.S. conducted airstrikes against Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites following an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, further intensifying the conflict.
U.S. airstrikes target Iranian missile and drone sites after attack on commercial ship
10 rises to 11%4%
Following an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. launched retaliatory airstrikes on Iranian missile storage, drone facilities, and coastal radar installations along the Iranian coast, reinforcing the focus on Iranian territory and escalating conflict.
U.S. military launches airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone facilities after drone attack on commercial ship
9 jumps to 23%10%
Following an Iranian drone attack on a Singapore-flagged commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. forces conducted retaliatory airstrikes on four Iranian military installations along the southern coast and Qeshm Island, escalating military conflict and signaling direct U.S. action on Iranian soil.
US Launches Retaliatory Airstrikes Against Iranian Coastal Targets
9 jumps to 29%5%
Following an attack on a commercial cargo ship, the US military launched targeted airstrikes on missile and drone facilities in southern Iran and Qeshm Island.
US conducts missile strikes on Iranian missile and drone sites in Strait of Hormuz
On June 26, 2026, US Air Force fighter jets struck Iranian missile and drone storage locations near the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for Iranian drone attacks on commercial vessels, continuing US military action on Iranian soil.
U.S. conducts airstrikes on Iranian missile, drone, and radar sites in response to drone attack on commercial ship
On June 26, 2026, U.S. Central Command launched airstrikes against Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites along the Strait of Hormuz and Qeshm Island. This was a direct retaliation for an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel, marking a significant escalation in U.S.-Iran hostilities.
U.S. conducts military strikes on Iranian missile and drone sites in retaliation for Strait of Hormuz attack
On June 26, 2026, U.S. Central Command conducted airstrikes against Iranian missile, drone storage, and coastal radar sites in response to an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, continuing the cycle of military actions in the region.
US strikes Iranian missile, drone, and radar sites in response to drone attack on cargo ship
8 jumps to 30%7%
On June 26, 2026, the US conducted airstrikes against Iranian missile, drone storage, and radar sites near the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel, reaffirming US focus on Iranian territory in military actions.
U.S. military strikes Iranian missile and drone facilities after drone attack on commercial ship
10 jumps to 13%7%
Following an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. launched retaliatory airstrikes on Iranian missile storage, drone sites, and coastal radar installations, reinforcing the focus on Iranian territory for U.S. strikes in 2026.
US conducts airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone sites in retaliation
The US launched airstrikes against Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites in response to an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, confirming continued US strikes on Iranian soil.
US launches precision airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone sites after drone attack on cargo ship
8 jumps to 14%9%
Following an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, the US conducted targeted airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone facilities near the Strait and on Qeshm Island, reaffirming US military action on Iranian soil and escalating the conflict.
US launches retaliatory strikes on Iranian missile and drone sites
9 jumps to 39%13%
In response to an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, US forces conducted airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites. This action intensified the conflict and led to Iranian missile and drone attacks on US facilities in Kuwait and Bahrain.
US conducts strikes on Iranian missile and drone sites near Strait of Hormuz
10 surges to 28%16%
On June 26, 2026, US fighter jets struck Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites near the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel. This marked a renewed US military action on Iranian soil, influencing market perceptions of ongoing conflict scope.
US launches airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone sites after drone attack on commercial vessel
10 jumps to 13%6%
In retaliation for an Iranian drone strike on a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, US Central Command launched airstrikes on Iranian missile storage, drone facilities, and coastal radar sites. This marked a significant escalation and reaffirmed US military action on Iranian soil.
US conducts missile and drone strikes on Iranian missile and drone sites along Strait of Hormuz
11 drops to 4%14%
The US launched airstrikes against Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites in retaliation for Iranian attacks on commercial shipping, demonstrating continued US military action on Iranian territory.
US launches strikes on Iranian missile and drone sites near Strait of Hormuz
10 surges to 16%15%
In retaliation for an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel, the US launched air strikes on Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites near the Strait of Hormuz, continuing US military operations on Iranian territory.
US fighter jets strike Iranian missile and drone sites near Strait of Hormuz
8 rises to 26%1%
US Central Command conducted airstrikes with F35s and F16s against Iranian missile, drone storage, and radar sites along the Strait of Hormuz and Qeshm Island, retaliating for Iranian drone attacks on commercial vessels and maintaining pressure on Iranian military infrastructure.
US airstrikes target Iranian missile and drone sites in response to Strait of Hormuz attack
On June 26, 2026, the US launched airstrikes against Iranian missile and drone storage sites and coastal radar installations in retaliation for an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, escalating the conflict.
US conducts retaliatory strikes on Iranian missile and drone sites
In response to an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, the US launched missile and drone strikes on Iranian military infrastructure, escalating the conflict and reinforcing the US military presence in Iran.
US conducts strikes on Iranian missile and drone sites near Strait of Hormuz
8 jumps to 59%12%
On June 26, 2026, US Air Force fighter jets struck Iranian missile and drone storage locations along the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for Iranian attacks on commercial shipping, continuing US military action on Iranian soil.
US strikes Iranian missile and drone sites in Strait of Hormuz
11 surges to 27%15%
The US launched strikes against Iranian missile and drone storage locations along the Strait of Hormuz as retaliation for an Iranian drone attack on a commercial ship, signaling continued US military engagement in the region.
US conducts missile and drone strikes on Iranian missile and drone sites
In retaliation for Iranian attacks on commercial shipping, the US launched missile and drone strikes on Iranian sites along the Strait of Hormuz and Qeshm Island, confirming US military action on Iranian soil and sustaining the conflict.
US conducts strikes on Iranian missile and drone sites in response to drone attack on commercial ship
11 jumps to 6%5%
On June 26, 2026, US Central Command launched strikes against Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites as retaliation for an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, escalating tensions in the region.
US launches strikes on Iranian missile and drone sites after commercial ship attack
8 jumps to 15%12%
US Central Command conducted airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites in retaliation for an Iranian drone attack on a commercial ship in the Strait of Hormuz, continuing US military operations in Iran.
U.S. retaliates with airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone sites after commercial ship attack
9 rises to 15%3%
Following an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. forces struck multiple Iranian missile storage, drone facilities, and coastal radar sites. This further confirmed ongoing U.S. strikes on Iranian soil, solidifying Iran's status as a primary target country in 2026.
US strikes Iranian missile and drone sites in retaliation for commercial ship attack
10 surges to 27%26%
The US launched strikes on Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites following an Iranian drone attack on a commercial ship, continuing the pattern of US military action on Iranian territory in 2026.
US launches retaliatory airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone sites after drone attack on cargo ship
9 jumps to 36%8%
In response to an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz on June 25, 2026, the US conducted airstrikes on Iranian missile, drone storage, and radar sites near the Strait and on Qeshm Island, marking the latest US military action on Iranian soil in 2026.
U.S. launches strikes on Iranian missile and drone sites near Strait of Hormuz
9 surges to 28%17%
In retaliation for an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel, the U.S. conducted airstrikes against missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites in Iran. This significant military action reinforced market confidence that U.S. strikes would be limited to Iran.
US conducts military strikes on Iranian missile and drone sites in response to attacks on commercial ship
8 rises to 30%4%
On June 26, 2026, US Central Command launched strikes against Iranian missile and drone storage locations along the Strait of Hormuz, responding to Iranian attacks on commercial shipping. This operation reaffirmed US military action on Iranian soil during the conflict.
US launches strikes on Iranian missile and drone storage locations in retaliation for drone attack on commercial vessel
The US Central Command conducted strikes on Iranian missile and drone storage sites and coastal radar locations following an Iranian drone attack on a Panama-flagged merchant vessel. This marked a significant escalation in US military action on Iranian territory.
US conducts airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone sites in response to drone attack on commercial ship
11 drops to 6%6%
On June 26, 2026, the US launched airstrikes against Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites in retaliation for an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, escalating military actions in Iran and surrounding countries.
US strikes Iranian missile and drone sites in retaliation for drone attack on commercial ship
8 surges to 26%17%
In response to an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, US Central Command conducted strikes on Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites, reaffirming US military action on Iranian territory.
US launches retaliatory strikes on Iranian missile and drone storage sites
8 surges to 61%34%
In response to an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, US Central Command conducted airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites, further escalating military actions in the region.
US conducts air strikes on Iranian missile and drone sites in response to drone attack
8 jumps to 38%12%
The US launched air strikes against Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites in retaliation for an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz. This confirmed continued US military strikes on Iranian soil in 2026.
US launches airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone sites in response to tanker attack
8 surges to 37%15%
In late June 2026, the US conducted airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone storage locations following an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, demonstrating ongoing US military operations on Iranian soil and regional tensions.
US conducts retaliatory airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone sites along Strait of Hormuz
8 surges to 32%17%
In response to an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, US Central Command launched airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites, demonstrating ongoing US military action on Iranian soil.
US conducts missile and drone strikes on Iranian missile and drone sites along Strait of Hormuz
In retaliation for Iranian drone attacks on commercial vessels, the US launched missile and drone strikes on Iranian military sites along the Strait of Hormuz, reaffirming US military action on Iranian soil in 2026.
U.S. conducts airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone sites in retaliation for drone attack on commercial ship
In response to an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. launched airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone storage locations, intensifying the conflict.
US conducts airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone sites along Strait of Hormuz
15+ jumps to 38%6%
In retaliation for Iranian drone attacks on commercial shipping, the US launched airstrikes against Iranian missile and drone storage sites on June 26, 2026, reaffirming US military action on Iranian soil and sustaining the conflict's intensity.
US airstrikes target Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites
US Central Command conducted airstrikes against Iranian military sites along the Strait of Hormuz and Qeshm Island in retaliation for Iranian drone attacks on commercial vessels, demonstrating sustained US military action on Iranian territory.
US military strikes Iranian missile, drone, and radar sites in retaliation for drone attack on commercial ship
8 jumps to 39%9%
Following an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, the US conducted targeted strikes on Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites, escalating the conflict but remaining focused on Iranian territory.
US Launches Retaliatory Airstrikes on Iranian Coastal Sites After Tanker Attack
8 jumps to 38%9%
The U.S. military launched precision airstrikes against four Iranian drone, missile, and radar installations following a UAV attack on the container ship M/V Ever Lovely.
US conducts airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone sites after Strait of Hormuz attack
On June 26, 2026, the US launched airstrikes against Iranian missile and drone storage facilities along the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel, confirming US military action on Iranian soil.
US conducts retaliatory strikes on Iranian missile and drone sites
8 jumps to 7%6%
In response to an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, US Central Command launched air strikes on Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites, escalating military actions on Iranian soil.
US conducts missile and drone strikes on Iranian missile and drone sites
8 rises to 26%3%
On June 26, 2026, the US launched missile and drone strikes against Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites in retaliation for Iranian attacks on commercial shipping. This confirmed continued US military action on Iranian soil during 2026.
U.S. military completes strikes on Iranian missile and drone sites along Strait of Hormuz
8 jumps to 37%8%
The U.S. Central Command announced a powerful response involving fighter jets striking Iranian missile and drone locations, signaling ongoing military operations against Iran in mid-2026.
U.S. launches retaliatory airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone sites after attack on commercial ship
9 jumps to 11%9%
Following an Iranian drone attack on a Singapore-flagged commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. conducted targeted airstrikes on Iranian military installations along the southern coast and Qeshm Island, escalating the conflict but maintaining strikes solely on Iranian territory.
U.S. military launches airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone sites after drone attack on cargo ship
8 surges to 28%23%
In retaliation for an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. forces struck Iranian missile storage, drone facilities, and coastal radar sites, escalating the conflict and undermining a fragile ceasefire.
US conducts military strikes on Iranian missile and drone sites in response to drone attack
9 jumps to 36%6%
On June 26, 2026, the US military launched airstrikes against Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites along the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel. This action further confirmed ongoing US military operations on Iranian soil in 2026.
US Central Command conducts strikes on Iranian missile and drone sites in Strait of Hormuz
11 dips to 4%1%
On June 26, 2026, US Central Command launched military strikes against Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites in response to Iranian attacks on commercial shipping. This continued US military action on Iranian soil and surrounding waters.
US conducts strikes on Iranian missile and drone sites near Strait of Hormuz
9 rises to 26%3%
On June 26, 2026, US fighter jets struck Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites near the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel. This continued US military action on Iranian soil and maritime areas.
U.S. conducts airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone sites in response to drone attack on commercial ship
8 surges to 68%43%
In late June, the U.S. launched airstrikes against Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites following an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz. This military action reinforced ongoing U.S. operations on Iranian territory and heightened regional tensions.
US military strikes Iranian missile and drone sites in retaliation for drone attack
9 rises to 31%2%
In response to an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, US forces conducted airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites, escalating the conflict.
US conducts retaliatory strikes on Iranian missile and drone sites
In response to an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, the US launched airstrikes against Iranian missile and drone storage facilities and coastal radar sites, escalating military actions on Iranian soil.
US conducts airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone sites in Strait of Hormuz
On June 26, 2026, US Air Force fighter jets struck Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites in retaliation for an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel. This marked a significant US military action on Iranian territory during 2026.
US conducts military strikes against Iranian missile and drone sites
8 surges to 62%15%
On June 26, 2026, US Central Command conducted strikes against Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites in retaliation for Iranian attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
US conducts precision airstrikes against ISIS camp in Libya
9 rises to 3%2%
On June 25, 2026, US Africa Command conducted six precision airstrikes against an Islamic State camp in Libya, killing 17 militants. The strikes were coordinated with Libya's Government of National Accord and targeted ISIS infrastructure used for movement, weapons stockpiling, and planning attacks.
US Africa Command conducts airstrikes targeting al-Shabaab in Somalia
8 jumps to 33%6%
On June 23, 2026, US AFRICOM conducted airstrikes targeting al-Shabaab militants in Somalia in coordination with the Somali government, representing US military action in Africa distinct from the Iran conflict.
US Africa Command conducts airstrikes targeting al-Shabaab in Somalia
On June 19, 2026, US Africa Command conducted airstrikes targeting al-Shabaab militants in Somalia in coordination with the Somali government. This continued the US campaign against Islamist militants in East Africa.
Kuwait reports Iranian drone and missile strikes causing injuries and damage
Iran launched drone and missile attacks targeting Kuwait, a US partner state with American military installations, in retaliation for US strikes on Iran, broadening the conflict to include multiple countries in the Gulf region.
Iranian strikes damage airport radar and cause injuries in Kuwait
8 rises to 31%4%
On June 12, 2026, Iranian missile and drone strikes targeted Kuwait, damaging airport radar and causing injuries, marking Kuwait as another country where US-related military conflict occurred due to US-Iran tensions.
Iranian strikes damage Kuwait airport radar and cause injuries
Iranian missile and drone strikes targeted Kuwait's territory, damaging critical airport radar and causing injuries, confirming US military action on Kuwaiti soil and expanding the conflict footprint.
Iranian strikes damage airport radar and cause injuries in Kuwait
9 jumps to 12%5%
Iranian missile and drone strikes targeted Kuwaiti territory, damaging airport radar and causing injuries, confirming US military action and conflict escalation involving Kuwait's soil.
US Central Command completes strikes on Iranian surveillance and air defense sites
CENTCOM announced precision strikes on Iranian military surveillance, communication, and air defense sites in response to Iranian aggression, reinforcing US military presence and action on Iranian territory.
US completes new strikes on Iranian surveillance and air defense sites
8 jumps to 38%8%
Following Iran's downing of a US Apache helicopter, the US launched precision strikes on Iranian military surveillance and air defense sites, escalating military action on Iranian territory.
U.S. launches strikes on Iranian air defenses near Strait of Hormuz
8 plunges to 5%42%
Following the downing of a U.S. attack helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. military targeted Iranian air defenses and radar sites. Iran retaliated with missile and drone attacks on U.S. bases in Jordan, Kuwait, and Bahrain, but no U.S. strikes on these countries' soil were reported, maintaining Iran as the only strike location.
US launches second night of air strikes on Iran
US Central Command launched additional self-defense air strikes against multiple targets in Iran, continuing the campaign to degrade Iranian military capabilities and expanding US military action in the region.
US military launches strikes against multiple targets in Iran
On June 9-10, 2026, the US military conducted strikes against Iranian military surveillance, communication, and air defense sites in response to Iranian aggression, continuing the campaign of airstrikes on Iranian soil.
US launches strikes against multiple targets in Iran amid rising tensions
9 jumps to 10%6%
The US military launched strikes against multiple Iranian targets following Iranian missile and drone attacks on US bases in Jordan. The strikes were confined to Iranian soil, with no reports of US strikes on other countries, supporting the market's view of a single-country military action.
US launches airstrikes on Iran; Iran retaliates with strikes on Gulf states and Jordan
10 jumps to 27%13%
On June 8, 2026, the US launched airstrikes on Iranian military targets, prompting Iran to retaliate with missile and drone attacks on US military bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan, expanding the conflict to multiple countries' territories.
U.S. military shoots down Iranian drones and ballistic missiles targeting Gulf allies
The U.S. intercepted Iranian drones and ballistic missiles launched toward Gulf allies and responded by striking Iranian coastal radar sites, escalating military actions in the Gulf region and confirming ongoing U.S. strikes on Iranian soil.
U.S. military shoots down Iranian drones and ballistic missiles targeting Gulf allies
The U.S. intercepted Iranian drones and missiles launched toward Gulf allies, followed by strikes on Iranian coastal radar sites, escalating military actions in the Gulf region.
US Forces Intercept Iranian Missiles and Strike Ground Control Station on Qeshm Island
9 jumps to 26%11%
U.S. and partner forces intercepted multiple Iranian missile and drone attacks across the Gulf region and conducted a retaliatory strike on Qeshm Island.
US strikes Iranian targets on Qeshm Island; Kuwait intercepts missile and drone attacks
9 surges to 26%17%
US forces conducted strikes on Iranian military facilities on Qeshm Island, while Kuwait reported intercepting Iranian missile and drone attacks, indicating US military action in Iran and defensive engagements in Kuwait, expanding the number of countries involved.
US conducts self-defense strikes on Iranian targets after missile and drone attacks
12 dips to 3%2%
On June 3, 2026, the US military carried out strikes against Iranian military facilities on Qeshm Island in response to Iranian missile and drone attacks targeting US bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, and other Gulf countries. This escalation reinforced the US military presence and strike activity in multiple countries in the region.
Iranian drone strike hits Kuwait International Airport terminal
8 jumps to 59%12%
On June 3, 2026, Iran launched drone and missile strikes on Kuwait International Airport, causing casualties and damage, with the US military conducting defensive strikes on Iranian targets in response, expanding the conflict zone.
US strikes Iranian drone command sites near Strait of Hormuz
CENTCOM reported US fighter aircraft eliminated Iranian air defenses and drone command sites near the Strait of Hormuz, continuing the pattern of US strikes exclusively on Iranian soil.
US conducts self-defense strikes on Iranian radar and drone sites after MQ-1 drone shootdown
8 jumps to 17%12%
In response to the shootdown of a US MQ-1 drone, the US launched strikes on Iranian radar and drone command sites on Qeshm Island and Goruk, confirming US military action on Iranian soil and escalating the conflict.
US bombs Iranian military sites and downs missiles fired at troops in Kuwait
The US bombed radar and drone sites in Iran after Tehran shot down an American drone. Iran retaliated with missile attacks on US troops in Kuwait, which were intercepted. This event confirmed ongoing US strikes on Iranian soil only.
U.S. conducts airstrikes on Iranian drone control sites in southern Iran
8 plunges to 5%42%
The U.S. military launched airstrikes targeting Iranian drone ground-control stations and missile launch sites in southern Iran, responding to aggressive Iranian actions including the downing of a U.S. drone. This marked a significant escalation in U.S. military action on Iranian soil, reinforcing the market's focus on Iran as the sole target country.
US strikes Iranian radar and drone sites after MQ-1 drone shootdown; Kuwait intercepts missiles
10 rises to 6%3%
Following the shootdown of a US MQ-1 drone, the US launched strikes on Iranian radar and drone command sites in Iran. Concurrently, Kuwait intercepted missiles and drones launched by Iran, indicating active conflict involving US strikes and Iranian retaliations in multiple countries.
U.S. conducts airstrikes on southern Iran targeting drone control stations
9 drops to 34%13%
The U.S. launched airstrikes on Iranian military targets in southern Iran, including a drone ground-control station, in response to aggressive Iranian actions such as shooting down an American drone. This marked an escalation in U.S. military operations on Iranian soil, influencing market expectations of the number of countries struck.
U.S. strikes Iranian radar sites after MQ-1 Predator drone shot down
8 rises to 19%3%
Following the downing of a U.S. MQ-1 Predator drone by Iranian forces, the U.S. conducted missile strikes on Iranian radar sites on May 31, 2026. This military action on Iranian territory contributed to the ongoing conflict and influenced market expectations of U.S. strikes in the region.
US bombs Iranian radar and drone control sites after drone downing
10 jumps to 16%9%
The US conducted strikes on Iranian radar and drone control sites following Iran's downing of an American MQ-1 Predator drone, demonstrating ongoing US military action on Iranian soil and escalating tensions in the region.
US bombs Iranian military sites; Kuwait hit by Iranian drone and missile fire injuring Americans
8 surges to 43%20%
US military strikes targeted Iranian radar and drone control sites in Iran, while Iran launched drone and missile attacks on Kuwait, injuring US personnel and damaging drones, confirming US military action in Iran and Iranian retaliatory strikes on Kuwaiti soil.
US strikes Iranian radar and drone sites after MQ-1 Predator drone shot down
8 jumps to 7%6%
Following the downing of a US MQ-1 Predator drone by Iranian forces, the US launched strikes on Iranian radar and drone control sites, confirming ongoing US military operations in Iran and maintaining the market's expectation of limited countries targeted.
US bombs Iranian radar and drone control sites after drone downing
9 dips to 26%1%
On May 31, 2026, the US military bombed Iranian radar and drone control sites in retaliation for Tehran shooting down an American MQ-1 Predator drone, continuing strikes on Iranian soil and maintaining Iran as a country struck in 2026.
US authorizes joint commando raid and airstrikes against ISIS in Nigeria
In May 2026, the US authorized a joint commando raid killing a high-ranking ISIS leader and launched airstrikes targeting ISIS fighters in Nigeria, marking US military action in Africa and adding Nigeria to the list of countries struck in 2026.
US bombs Iranian radar and drone control sites after drone downing
8 rises to 28%3%
Following the downing of an American MQ-1 Predator drone, the US bombed Iranian radar and drone control sites, continuing strikes on Iranian territory and escalating tensions.
US strikes Iranian radar and drone sites after MQ-1 Predator drone downed
8 jumps to 24%9%
Following Iran shooting down a US MQ-1 Predator drone, the US conducted airstrikes on Iranian radar and drone control sites, confirming continued US military action on Iranian territory.
US strikes Iranian radar and drone control sites after drone shot down
Following Iran's downing of a US MQ-1 Predator drone on May 30, 2026, the US conducted strikes on Iranian radar and drone control sites, marking a direct military action on Iranian soil and escalating tensions further.
US strikes Iranian radar sites after drone shot down
Following the downing of a US MQ-1 Predator drone by Iranian forces, the US conducted strikes on Iranian radar and missile sites near Bandar Abbas. This confirmed continued US military action on Iranian soil involving drone and missile strikes.
US conducts airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone sites after cargo ship attack
In response to Iranian drone attacks on a commercial ship near Oman, US aircraft struck multiple Iranian missile and drone infrastructure sites, including coastal radar installations. This action further intensified US military operations on Iranian soil.
U.S. conducts airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone sites after cargo ship attack
8 jumps to 16%7%
In response to Iranian drone attacks on commercial shipping near the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. aircraft struck Iranian missile and drone storage sites and coastal radar installations, escalating military actions in the region.
US fires missile at commercial ship attempting to breach blockade near Iran
On May 29, 2026, US forces fired a Hellfire missile at the engine room of a commercial ship trying to circumvent the US-led blockade of Iranian ports, escalating tensions and prompting retaliatory strikes by Iran and subsequent US airstrikes on Iranian military sites.
US conducts airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone sites after cargo ship attack
8 surges to 67%20%
In late May 2026, US aircraft struck Iranian missile and drone infrastructure in retaliation for attacks on commercial shipping, demonstrating continued US military action on Iranian soil.
US conducts self-defense strikes on Iranian missile sites after drone attack
8 jumps to 39%8%
Following an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, the US launched missile and drone strikes on Iranian missile and drone storage sites on May 28, 2026, further escalating military actions in the region.
U.S. conducts precision strike on Iranian-linked drone facility in Syria
10 jumps to 19%10%
U.S. Central Command launched a precision airstrike on a drone launch facility in eastern Syria linked to Iranian-aligned militias, marking a direct military action on Syrian soil. This event confirmed U.S. military engagement in Syria in 2026, impacting market expectations for the number of countries targeted.
Kuwait air defenses intercept hostile missile and drone attacks amid Iran-US tensions
Kuwaiti air defense systems actively engaged hostile missile and drone attacks, part of ongoing Iranian retaliatory strikes on US and allied bases in the Gulf, expanding the number of countries where US military action and conflict occur.
Iranian missile and drone attacks target US air base in Kuwait
8 jumps to 26%7%
On May 28, 2026, Iran launched missile and drone attacks on the Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait, a major US military facility, causing injuries and equipment losses. This strike further involved Kuwait as a country where US military assets were targeted and engaged in the conflict.
US conducts precision strike on Iranian-linked drone facility in Syria
8 jumps to 30%7%
US Central Command carried out a precision air strike on a drone launch facility in eastern Syria linked to Iranian-aligned militias, marking a direct US military action on Syrian soil. This strike was part of ongoing efforts to counter drone threats to US personnel in the region and confirmed US military action in Syria in 2026.
U.S. strikes Iranian-linked drone facility in Syria amid escalating tensions
9 rises to 23%1%
U.S. Central Command conducted a precision strike on a drone launch facility in eastern Syria linked to Iranian militias, marking U.S. military action on Syrian soil and signaling escalation in regional drone warfare.
Iran launches missile and drone attacks on US air base in Kuwait
9 plunges to 2%46%
In retaliation for US strikes near Bandar Abbas, Iran fired missiles and drones at the US air base in Kuwait, marking the first confirmed US military strike impact on Kuwaiti soil in 2026. This event expanded the number of countries where US military action was effectively conducted.
U.S. conducts precision strike on Iranian-linked drone facility in Syria
8 dips to 19%3%
U.S. Central Command launched a precision airstrike on a drone launch facility in eastern Syria linked to Iranian-aligned militias, marking a significant escalation in regional tensions and demonstrating U.S. resolve to counter drone threats. This strike confirmed U.S. military action on Syrian soil, impacting market expectations for the number of countries targeted.
Iran fires ballistic missiles and drones at US base in Kuwait following US strikes
11 surges to 25%18%
Following US strikes on Iranian sites, Iran retaliated with ballistic missile and drone attacks on a US airbase in Kuwait, causing injuries and destruction. This marked the first post-ceasefire missile attack on a Gulf Cooperation Council state, expanding the conflict's geographic scope.
US Central Command Strikes Iranian-Linked Drone Facility in Syria
8 jumps to 29%7%
US forces conducted a precision strike on a drone launch facility in Syria's Deir ez-Zor province, solidifying Syria's place on the list of targeted countries.
US military carries out new strikes in Iran targeting military sites and drones
The US conducted new airstrikes on Iranian military sites and shot down Iranian drones threatening the Strait of Hormuz, continuing the military campaign against Iran and reinforcing the likelihood of US strikes on Iranian soil.
US drone shot down by Iran after strikes on Iranian radar sites
8 rises to 11%4%
On May 28, 2026, Iran shot down a US MQ-1 Predator drone following US strikes on Iranian radar sites. This incident reflects ongoing US military drone operations over Iranian territory during 2026.
US conducts precise strikes on Iranian drone base near Strait of Hormuz
On May 28, 2026, US Central Command executed strikes on an Iranian drone ground control station near Bandar Abbas, Iran, targeting preparations for drone launches threatening regional security.
U.S. conducts precision strike on Iranian-linked drone facility in Syria
9 rises to 28%4%
U.S. Central Command launched a precision airstrike on a drone launch facility in eastern Syria linked to Iranian-aligned militias, marking a direct military action on Syrian soil. This strike confirmed U.S. willingness to target Iranian proxy infrastructure outside Iran, impacting market expectations for the number of countries struck.
US launches precision strike on Iranian drone base near Strait of Hormuz
8 jumps to 38%8%
On May 28, 2026, US Central Command executed a precision strike on an Iranian drone base near Bandar Abbas, further escalating US military operations in Iran and contributing to the tally of countries where strikes occurred.
US conducts precision strike on Iranian drone facility in Syria
10 rises to 11%4%
US Central Command conducted a precision strike on a drone launch facility in eastern Syria linked to Iranian-aligned militias. This marked US military action on Iranian proxy infrastructure outside Iran, expanding the number of countries where US strikes occurred.
US conducts new strikes on Iranian military site and drones near Strait of Hormuz
9 rises to 11%4%
On May 27, 2026, the US military carried out strikes on an Iranian ground control station in Bandar Abbas and shot down Iranian attack drones threatening the Strait of Hormuz, reaffirming ongoing US military action solely on Iranian territory.
US intercepts Iranian drones and strikes drone station in Bandar Abbas
8 drops to 30%7%
US Central Command intercepted Iranian drones and launched strikes on an Iranian drone base near Bandar Abbas, demonstrating ongoing US military operations on Iranian soil and countering drone threats.
US military intercepts Iranian drones and strikes drone station in Bandar Abbas, Iran
8 rises to 31%2%
On May 26, 2026, the US intercepted Iranian drones and conducted strikes on an Iranian drone station in Bandar Abbas, Iran, demonstrating ongoing US military action on Iranian soil and contributing to the count of countries targeted.
US Military Launches Overnight Strikes on Drone Control Station in Bandar Abbas
12 jumps to 10%5%
The U.S. military conducted overnight strikes targeting an Iranian ground control station in Bandar Abbas and shot down four attack drones.
US conducts self-defense strikes on Iranian missile sites near Strait of Hormuz
10 jumps to 61%14%
In response to Iranian drone threats, the US military struck Iranian missile launch sites and drone control stations near Bandar Abbas, aiming to neutralize imminent threats to maritime traffic. This action contributed to ongoing hostilities and increased the number of countries involved in US military strikes.
US conducts strikes on Iranian missile launch sites and drone bases near Strait of Hormuz
8 dips to 26%1%
US Central Command carried out precision strikes on Iranian missile launch sites and drone facilities near the Strait of Hormuz, responding to escalating UAV threats and maintaining pressure on Iran amid ceasefire talks. This reinforced the ongoing US military focus on Iranian territory.
US military strikes Iranian drone station near Bandar Abbas
9 drops to 35%12%
The US Central Command conducted precision strikes on an Iranian drone base near Bandar Abbas after detecting preparations for additional drone launches, signaling an escalation in US military action against Iran. This event increased market expectations for US strikes on Iranian soil, impacting the market price.
US military intercepts Iranian drones and strikes drone station near Strait of Hormuz
The US Central Command conducted precision strikes on Iranian drone infrastructure in response to drone threats, marking a direct US military action on Iranian soil and escalating the conflict in the Middle East.
US military strikes Iranian drone station near Strait of Hormuz
8 jumps to 34%6%
The US military intercepted Iranian drones and launched strikes on an Iranian drone station in Bandar Abbas, Iran, marking a significant escalation in the conflict and signaling US intent to counter Iranian UAV threats in the region.
US intercepts Iranian drones and strikes drone station in Bandar Abbas, Iran
8 jumps to 31%7%
The US military intercepted Iranian drones and conducted strikes on an Iranian drone station in Bandar Abbas on May 26, 2026, demonstrating ongoing US military action on Iranian soil and continued drone warfare in the region.
US conducts self-defense strikes on Iranian missile launch sites near Strait of Hormuz
The US military carried out precision strikes on Iranian missile launch sites and boats around the Strait of Hormuz, marking continued US military action on Iranian soil in 2026.
US conducts airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone sites after cargo ship attack
8 jumps to 29%7%
In late May 2026, the US launched airstrikes targeting Iranian missile and drone infrastructure in response to Iranian drone attacks on commercial shipping, continuing the military engagement in Iran and surrounding regions.
US military conducts self-defense strikes on Iranian missile and drone sites
8 rises to 30%4%
On May 26, 2026, the US military launched self-defense strikes against Iranian missile launch sites and drone stations near the Strait of Hormuz, marking continued US military action on Iranian soil and increasing the number of countries targeted.
US conducts self-defense strikes on Iranian missile launch sites and boats
9 surges to 27%17%
The US military carried out self-defense strikes targeting Iranian missile launch sites and boats around the Strait of Hormuz amid ongoing ceasefire negotiations. This continued pattern of strikes against Iranian territory reinforced market confidence that the US would not strike other countries in 2026.
US conducts self-defense strikes on Iranian missile launch sites near Strait of Hormuz
8 jumps to 28%5%
On May 25, 2026, the US military conducted strikes targeting Iranian missile launch sites and boats around the Strait of Hormuz amid ceasefire negotiations, escalating the conflict with Iran.
U.S. military conducts self-defense strikes on Iranian missile launch sites near Strait of Hormuz
10 plunges to 11%36%
The U.S. military carried out self-defense strikes targeting Iranian missile launch sites and boats around the Strait of Hormuz amid ongoing ceasefire negotiations, signaling continued military engagement on Iranian soil.
US conducts airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone sites after cargo ship attack
10 jumps to 10%8%
In response to an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, the US launched multiple strikes on Iranian missile and drone infrastructure, reinforcing ongoing military operations in Iran and nearby waters.
US conducts strikes on Iranian missile and drone sites after cargo ship attack
8 rises to 3%2%
In response to an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel, US aircraft struck Iranian missile and drone infrastructure along the Strait of Hormuz, reaffirming US military action on Iranian soil.
U.S. conducts air strikes on Iranian missile and drone sites in response to Strait of Hormuz attack
8 jumps to 29%6%
In retaliation for an Iranian drone attack on a commercial ship, the U.S. launched air strikes targeting missile and drone storage sites and coastal radar installations in Iran, continuing the military conflict in the region.
US conducts airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone sites after cargo ship attack
8 rises to 25%1%
In response to an Iranian drone attack on a commercial ship in the Strait of Hormuz, US aircraft struck Iranian missile and drone infrastructure along the coast, continuing the aerial campaign against Iranian military capabilities.
US conducts multiple strikes on Iranian missile and drone sites after cargo ship attack
8 rises to 25%1%
Following an Iranian drone attack on a commercial ship in the Strait of Hormuz, US aircraft carried out strikes on Iranian missile and drone infrastructure, including coastal radar and storage sites, escalating military actions on Iranian soil.
US Africa Command conducts coordinated strike against ISIS in Nigeria
8 plunges to 5%42%
US Africa Command, in coordination with the Nigerian government, conducted airstrikes against ISIS militants in Northeastern Nigeria, marking Nigeria as a country where US military action occurred in 2026.
Drone strike hits UAE nuclear plant amid Iran tensions
8 rises to 28%2%
A drone strike targeted the UAE's sole nuclear power plant, part of the broader US-Iran conflict, indicating US military action impacting UAE territory or involvement in regional hostilities.
US and Nigeria conduct joint airstrikes against ISIS in Northeastern Nigeria
8 surges to 37%25%
At the direction of the US President and Secretary of War, and in coordination with the Nigerian government, U.S. Africa Command conducted airstrikes against ISIS militants in Northeastern Nigeria starting May 16, 2026, marking significant US military action on Nigerian soil.
US and Nigeria begin joint military operation against ISWAP and Boko Haram
9 surges to 29%17%
On May 15, 2026, the US and Nigeria launched joint military operations including airstrikes against Islamic State West Africa Province and Boko Haram militants in northeastern Nigeria, marking US military action on Nigerian soil.
US and Nigerian forces launch joint military operation with airstrikes against ISWAP in Nigeria
9 surges to 29%17%
On May 15, 2026, the US and Nigeria began a joint military operation against ISWAP and Boko Haram in northeastern Nigeria, including special forces raids and multiple rounds of airstrikes. This operation killed senior ISWAP leaders and intensified US military involvement in Nigeria.
U.S. forces strike Iranian military facilities near Strait of Hormuz
8 rises to 23%1%
U.S. Central Command conducted airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone launch sites, command centers, and surveillance nodes near the Strait of Hormuz in response to Iranian attacks on U.S. warships, escalating military tensions in the region.
US forces strike Iranian military facilities near Strait of Hormuz
US Central Command announced strikes on Iranian missile, drone, and command sites responsible for attacks on US warships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, escalating tensions and confirming US military action on Iranian soil.
US military strikes Iranian military facilities near Strait of Hormuz
8 rises to 27%4%
US forces conducted strikes on Iranian missile and drone launch sites, command and control locations, and intelligence nodes near the Strait of Hormuz in response to Iranian attacks on US warships. This confirmed Iran as a country targeted by US military strikes in 2026.
US launches missile and drone strikes on Iranian military facilities
10 rises to 19%4%
The US military launched strikes on Iranian military sites responsible for attacks on US forces, escalating tensions and confirming US military action on Iranian soil. This event influenced market prices by increasing the perceived number of countries targeted by US strikes.
US military strikes Iranian facilities in Bandar Abbas and Qeshm
9 jumps to 26%14%
US forces targeted Iranian military facilities responsible for missile, drone, and small boat attacks against US warships in the Strait of Hormuz area, including Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island. This action was part of ongoing US military operations in Iran, reinforcing expectations of multiple strike locations.
US conducts self-defense strikes on Iranian missile and drone sites
On May 7, 2026, US forces struck Iranian missile and drone launch sites and command locations in response to Iranian attacks on US Navy vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, focusing strikes on Iranian territory without reported strikes on other countries.
US conducts airstrikes on Iranian military facilities in Bandar Abbas and Qeshm
8 surges to 29%16%
US forces targeted Iranian missile, drone launch sites, and command centers in multiple locations including Bandar Abbas and Qeshm in response to Iranian attacks on US naval vessels, expanding US military action on Iranian soil.
US strikes Iranian military sites in Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island
In response to missile, drone, and boat attacks on US destroyers, the US conducted strikes on Iranian military sites in Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island. This reinforced the market's view that US military action was confined to Iran.
U.S. forces strike Iranian military facilities in response to missile and drone attacks
9 jumps to 25%12%
U.S. Central Command announced strikes on Iranian missile and drone launch sites and command centers in southern Iran, targeting facilities responsible for attacks on U.S. warships. This confirmed continued U.S. aerial military actions on Iranian soil.
US forces strike Iranian military facilities after missile and drone attacks
9 jumps to 27%14%
US Central Command confirmed strikes on Iranian missile and drone launch sites responsible for attacks on US warships in the Strait of Hormuz. The strikes targeted multiple Iranian locations including Bandar Abbas and Qeshm, reaffirming that US military action was confined to Iran.
U.S. authorizes joint commando raid and airstrikes against ISIS in Nigeria
8 rises to 23%4%
In May 2026, the U.S. authorized a joint commando raid killing a high-ranking ISIS leader in Nigeria, followed by airstrikes targeting ISIS fighters. This marked U.S. military action on Nigerian soil, expanding the number of countries affected by U.S. strikes in 2026.
US bypasses War Powers deadline, declares hostilities with Iran terminated
On May 1, 2026, the Trump administration declared that hostilities with Iran had ended for War Powers Resolution purposes, affecting ongoing military operations and signaling a temporary de-escalation in direct strikes on Iranian soil.
US disables Iranian oil tankers amid renewed missile and drone attacks in Gulf
12 dips to 3%2%
The US Central Command disabled two Iranian oil tankers attempting to reach Iranian ports, enforcing a naval blockade. This action coincided with fresh missile and drone attacks reported by the UAE, indicating ongoing US military operations in the Gulf region and sustaining market expectations for strikes in multiple Middle Eastern countries.
US and African partners conduct Exercise African Lion 2026 in multiple African countries
8 plunges to 5%42%
The US co-led a large multinational military exercise across Ghana, Morocco, Senegal, and Tunisia, demonstrating military cooperation and presence in these African countries in 2026.
Iranian missile and drone strike damages US base in Saudi Arabia
11 plunges to 6%41%
Following US strikes, Iran retaliated with missile and drone attacks on US military bases in Saudi Arabia, including Prince Sultan Air Base, injuring US personnel and damaging aircraft. This expanded the conflict to Saudi territory, increasing the number of countries involved in US military actions.
Iranian missile and drone strike damages US aircraft at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia
10 jumps to 38%9%
An Iranian missile and drone attack on a US air base in Saudi Arabia damaged key US aircraft and wounded US personnel, confirming active US military presence and conflict on Saudi soil.
Iranian missile and drone strike damages US aircraft at Saudi base
On March 27, 2026, Iranian missile and drone strikes hit Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, damaging US aircraft and injuring US personnel, confirming US military action on Saudi soil and escalating the conflict footprint.
Iranian missile and drone strike damages US aircraft at Saudi base
Iranian forces launched a missile and drone strike on Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, damaging US refueling aircraft and an E-3 Sentry AWACS plane, and injuring US personnel. This confirmed US military involvement and strikes in Saudi Arabia's territory during the conflict.
Iranian missile and drone strike damages US aircraft at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia
8 jumps to 38%12%
On March 27, 2026, Iranian forces struck Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia with missiles and drones, damaging US refueling aircraft and an E-3 Sentry AWACS, injuring US personnel and demonstrating the vulnerability of US bases in allied countries, impacting market expectations for US military engagements.
Iranian missile and drone strike damages US aircraft at Saudi base
9 rises to 18%3%
On March 27, 2026, Iranian missile and drone strikes damaged a US E-3 Sentry AWACS aircraft and refueling planes at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, injuring US personnel. This confirmed US military action and presence on Saudi soil, impacting market probabilities.
US Strike on Iraqi Military Base Kills Seven PMF-Linked Soldiers
15+ rises to 7%4%
A US airstrike targeted the Habbaniya military base in Iraq's Al Anbar Governorate, confirming Iraq as one of the active countries subjected to US military action in 2026.
Iranian missile and drone strikes hit four US airbases in the region
12 rises to 5%4%
Iran's IRGC launched coordinated missile and drone strikes on four US airbases, expanding the conflict to US military sites outside Iran and increasing the number of countries involved in the conflict.
Iranian missile and drone strikes hit four US airbases in the Middle East
On March 15, 2026, coordinated Iranian missile and drone strikes targeted four US airbases in the region, damaging key military infrastructure and increasing tensions. This demonstrated Iran's capability to strike US forces on foreign soil, influencing market expectations of US retaliatory strikes.
Iranian missile and drone strikes hit four US airbases in the Middle East
Iran launched coordinated missile and drone strikes on four US airbases in the region, damaging key military infrastructure and escalating the conflict beyond Iran's borders. This demonstrated Iran's capability to retaliate on multiple fronts but did not involve US-initiated strikes on other countries.
Iranian missile and drone strikes hit four US airbases in the Middle East
9 jumps to 15%8%
On March 15, 2026, coordinated Iranian missile and drone strikes targeted four US airbases, damaging key military infrastructure and radar systems. This confirmed US military presence and action in multiple Middle Eastern countries, reinforcing market confidence in multiple-country strikes.
Iranian missile and drone strikes hit four US airbases in the Middle East
10 dips to 6%3%
Iran's IRGC launched coordinated missile and drone strikes on four US airbases, damaging key military infrastructure and escalating the conflict beyond Iran to US bases in allied countries, increasing the number of countries involved in US military actions.
Iran retaliates with missile and drone strikes on US bases in Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Iraq
8 dips to 1%4%
Iran launched coordinated missile and drone attacks on US military bases in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iraq in response to US strikes on Kharg Island, expanding the conflict to multiple countries in the Middle East.
US airstrikes target Iranian-backed militias in Iraq, killing senior leaders
Following the outbreak of the Iran war, US forces conducted airstrikes against Iranian-backed militias in Iraq, killing key figures and escalating military action on Iraqi soil.
U.S. conducts large bombing raid on Kharg Island, Iran
10 plunges to 11%36%
The U.S. Air Force conducted a large bombing raid on Kharg Island, Iran, targeting over 90 military sites, further intensifying U.S. military operations on Iranian territory.
US airstrike kills ISIS deputy leader in Iraq's Al Anbar province
On March 13, 2026, US forces conducted an airstrike in Iraq killing Abdallah Makki Muslih al-Rifai, a senior ISIS leader, continuing US military operations on Iraqi soil against terrorist groups.
US Conducts Precision Air Strike Against ISIS in Iraq
15+ jumps to 13%12%
U.S. Central Command executed a precision air strike in Iraq's Al Anbar province, targeting and killing the second-in-command of ISIS.
US airstrike kills senior ISIS leader in Iraq
A US airstrike in Iraq's Al Anbar province killed Abdallah Makki Muslih al-Rifai, the No. 2 ISIS leader, demonstrating ongoing US military operations in Iraq against terrorist groups, contributing to the count of countries targeted by US strikes.
US conducts precision airstrike killing senior ISIS leader in Iraq
9 rises to 4%3%
On March 13, 2026, US Central Command carried out a precision airstrike in Al Anbar province, Iraq, killing Abdallah “Abu Khadijah” Makki Muslih al-Rifai, the second-in-command of ISIS, and another operative. This strike was part of ongoing US counterterrorism operations targeting ISIS in Iraq during 2026.
US airstrike kills ISIS deputy leader in Iraq's Al Anbar province
8 rises to 18%2%
A precision airstrike by US Central Command killed Abdallah 'Abu Khadijah' Muslih al-Rifai, ISIS's second-in-command, in Iraq, demonstrating ongoing US counterterrorism operations in multiple countries.
US conducts multiple airstrikes against Iran-backed militias in Iraq
Since the outbreak of the 2026 Iran war, the US has conducted numerous airstrikes targeting Iranian-backed militias in Iraq, including the Popular Mobilization Forces. These strikes have killed dozens of militia members and targeted multiple bases across Iraq.
US expands airstrikes against ISIS targets in Syria
9 dips to 30%1%
US forces conducted large-scale airstrikes against ISIS targets in Syria, including weapons caches and supply routes, as part of ongoing counterterrorism operations in the region.
Drone attack hits US diplomatic facility in Iraq
8 plunges to 5%42%
A drone assault targeted a major US diplomatic facility in Iraq, reflecting ongoing hostilities and US military involvement in Iraq during 2026.
U.S.-Israeli strikes severely degrade Iran's missile and drone capabilities
By March 9, 2026, combined U.S. and Israeli forces had significantly damaged Iran's missile and drone infrastructure, limiting Iran's ability to retaliate and confirming the intensity of the ongoing air campaign against Iran.
US expands strikes in Iraq and Syria against ISIS and Iran-aligned groups
8 jumps to 16%8%
Following the initial strikes on Iran, the US escalated military operations in Iraq and Syria targeting ISIS and Iran-aligned militias, involving airstrikes and drone attacks on these countries' territories. This expanded the number of countries where the US conducted military strikes in 2026.
US launches military operation in Ecuador targeting terrorists
9 rises to 36%1%
The US began joint military operations in Ecuador against designated terrorist groups, adding Ecuador as a new country of US military action in 2026 and increasing the count of targeted countries.
US military begins joint operations with Ecuador against terrorist groups
In March 2026, the US announced collaboration with Ecuador to combat designated terrorist organizations, marking Ecuador as a new country where US military action was authorized in 2026.
US launches military operation in Ecuador targeting terrorist organizations
In March 2026, the US began joint military operations in Ecuador against designated terrorist groups, marking US military action on Ecuadorian soil and expanding the number of countries involved in US military operations in 2026.
U.S. military expands strikes against ISIS targets in Syria after ambush
10 plunges to 11%36%
Following an ambush that killed U.S. personnel, the U.S. conducted large-scale airstrikes against ISIS targets in Syria, increasing military actions on Syrian soil.
U.S. launches military operations in Ecuador targeting terrorist groups
9 drops to 36%11%
The Trump administration began joint military operations in Ecuador against designated terrorist organizations, marking U.S. military action on Ecuadorian soil.
US expands air operations in Somalia against extremist groups
8 jumps to 55%8%
Since early 2025 and continuing into 2026, the US expanded drone and air operations in Somalia targeting Islamic State and al-Shabaab militants, confirming ongoing US military action on Somali soil.
US launches military operations against Islamic State targets in Syria
In early March 2026, the US conducted large-scale strikes against Islamic State group targets in Syria, expanding its military footprint and adding Syria to the list of countries where US strikes occurred in 2026.
US launches military operations in Ecuador against designated terrorist groups
The US began joint military operations in Ecuador targeting terrorist organizations, marking US military action on Ecuadorian soil in 2026.
US launches military operation in Ecuador to combat terrorists
In March 2026, the US announced a military operation in Ecuador collaborating to combat designated terrorist organizations, marking a new country targeted by US military strikes in 2026.
US launches military operation in Ecuador targeting terrorists
8 surges to 66%19%
The Trump administration began joint military operations with Ecuador against designated terrorist organizations, marking US military action on Ecuadorian soil and increasing the count of countries where the US conducted strikes or operations in 2026.
US launches military operations in Ecuador targeting designated terrorist organizations
In March 2026, the US began joint military operations in Ecuador against designated terrorist groups, marking another country where the US conducted military action in 2026.
US expands air operations against ISIS in Syria
US forces expanded operations striking ISIS targets in Syria, confirming US air strikes on Syrian soil in 2026, contributing to the count of countries targeted by US military strikes.
US military operation captures Venezuelan leader Maduro
In January 2026, US forces conducted a military operation in Venezuela capturing President Nicolás Maduro, marking direct US military action on Venezuelan soil. This adds Venezuela to the list of countries targeted by US military strikes in 2026.
US conducts large-scale strikes against ISIS targets in Syria
In response to an Islamic State attack, the US carried out large-scale airstrikes against ISIS targets in Syria, involving over 90 munitions on more than 35 targets. This confirmed US air strikes on Syrian soil, contributing to the count of countries targeted.
Trump administration launches US military operation in Ecuador against terrorists
8 dips to 1%4%
The U.S. began joint military operations in Ecuador targeting designated terrorist organizations, marking a new country where U.S. military action occurred in 2026. This broadened the geographic scope of U.S. military engagements beyond the Middle East.
U.S. launches military operation in Ecuador targeting terrorist groups
8 rises to 27%4%
The Trump administration began joint military operations in Ecuador against designated terrorist organizations, marking a new country where the U.S. conducted military strikes in 2026.
US airstrikes surge in Somalia targeting Al-Shabaab and ISIS-linked militants
US Africa Command reported nearly 50 airstrikes in Somalia in early 2026 targeting militant groups, marking increased US military action in Somalia during the year.
US military operation begins in Ecuador targeting terrorist organizations
The Trump administration launched joint military operations with Ecuador against designated terrorist groups, marking US military action on Ecuadorian soil in 2026.
US military operation begins in Ecuador targeting terrorist organizations
10 plunges to 9%38%
In early March 2026, the US launched a military operation in Ecuador collaborating with local forces to combat designated terrorist groups, adding another country to the list where the US conducted military strikes in 2026.
Drone strikes near US embassies in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait amid escalating conflict
12 dips to 2%3%
Drone activity targeted areas near US diplomatic compounds in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, leading to heightened security alerts and embassy closures. This expansion of conflict zones to include diplomatic sites underscored the widening scope of US military involvement in the region.
Iranian missile and drone strikes target US bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan
12 dips to 2%3%
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed missile and drone attacks on US military bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan, marking a sharp escalation and retaliation for US strikes. These attacks increased regional tensions and the likelihood of further US military responses in multiple countries.
US conducts strikes on Iranian radar and drone sites after MQ-1 drone shootdown
12 dips to 2%3%
Following the shootdown of a US MQ-1 drone, the US military launched strikes on Iranian radar and drone command sites on Qeshm Island and Goruk. This action escalated hostilities and was part of ongoing US military operations against Iran, influencing market prices for strikes in the Middle East.
Iranian drone strike hits US CIA station at Riyadh embassy compound
9 dips to 30%1%
An Iranian-manufactured drone struck the CIA station annex at the US Embassy in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, causing damage and injuries, escalating US-Iran tensions and raising risks of broader military confrontation.
Iranian drone strike hits CIA station at US Embassy in Riyadh
A drone strike on March 3, 2026, targeted the CIA station at the US Embassy in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, escalating the US-Iran conflict and highlighting the risk of broader military confrontation in the region.
Iranian drone strike hits US CIA station at US Embassy in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
8 jumps to 13%12%
On March 3, 2026, an Iranian drone struck the CIA station at the US Embassy in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, causing injuries and damage, escalating US military tensions and involving Saudi territory in the conflict.
Trump administration expands counterterrorism operations including strikes in Iraq, Nigeria, and Somalia
In early 2026, the Trump administration approved the expansion of counterterrorism operations that included bombing targets in Iraq, Nigeria, and Somalia, reflecting a broader military engagement across multiple countries.
US and Arab nations condemn Iran's missile and drone strikes across West Asia
9 drops to 34%13%
The US and six Arab nations issued a joint statement condemning Iran's missile and drone attacks on multiple countries including Bahrain, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. This highlighted the broad regional impact of the conflict and increased expectations of US military responses across these countries.
Iranian missile and drone strike damages US base in Saudi Arabia
9 jumps to 15%10%
On March 2, 2026, Iran launched missile and drone attacks on Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, damaging US aircraft and injuring US soldiers. This expanded the conflict beyond Iran, involving US military action and Iranian retaliation in Saudi Arabia and signaling broader regional engagement.
Iranian missile and drone strike damages U.S. aircraft at Saudi base
8 jumps to 23%7%
Iran launched missile and drone attacks on Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, damaging U.S. refueling aircraft and injuring American personnel, escalating the regional conflict and U.S. military involvement in the Middle East.
Iran launches retaliatory missile and drone strikes on US and allied bases in Middle East
12 drops to 48%14%
Following US strikes on Iran, Iran retaliated with missile and drone attacks targeting US military bases and allied countries including Bahrain, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, expanding the conflict to multiple countries' territories.
US expands counterterrorism airstrikes in Iraq and Syria
The US conducted precision airstrikes targeting ISIS operatives in Iraq and Syria, continuing counterterrorism operations beyond the Iran conflict and confirming military action on Iraqi and Syrian soil.
US deploys Tomahawk missiles, B-2 bombers, and suicide drones in strikes on Iran
8 drops to 0%5%
The US intensified its bombing campaign against Iranian military sites using advanced weaponry including Tomahawk cruise missiles, B-2 stealth bombers, and suicide drones, reinforcing the focus on Iran and limiting expectations of strikes in other countries.
U.S. deploys Tomahawk missiles, B-2 bombers, and suicide drones in strikes on Iran
8 dips to 1%4%
Following the initial wave of strikes, the U.S. intensified its bombing campaign using advanced weaponry including Tomahawk cruise missiles, stealth B-2 bombers, and suicide drones against Iranian missile and military facilities, reinforcing the focus on Iran as the primary target of U.S. military action.
Iranian drone strikes US military base in Kuwait
8 jumps to 59%12%
On March 1, 2026, Iranian drones attacked the US military base Camp Buehring in Kuwait, escalating regional tensions and prompting US military responses in neighboring countries, contributing to the count of countries involved in US military actions.
US strikes Iranian-aligned groups in Iraq and Saudi Arabia in retaliation for drone attacks
8 rises to 22%4%
US and Saudi forces launched strikes against Iran-aligned groups in eastern Iraq in response to drone attacks on Saudi oil targets, expanding US military actions to Iraq and Saudi Arabia.
Iranian drone strike kills US soldiers at tactical operations center in Kuwait
8 dips to 1%4%
An Iranian drone strike on March 1, 2026, targeted a US tactical operations center in Port Shuaiba, Kuwait, killing six US service members and marking US military action on Kuwaiti soil due to subsequent retaliatory strikes.
US deploys Tomahawk missiles, B-2 bombers, and suicide drones in strikes on Iran
9 drops to 7%7%
The US intensified its air campaign against Iran using advanced weaponry including Tomahawk cruise missiles, B-2 stealth bombers, and suicide drones, demonstrating sustained military action exclusively against Iranian targets in early March 2026.
US expands counterterrorism airstrikes against ISIS targets in Syria
In early 2026, the US conducted large-scale strikes against ISIS targets in Syria, including weapons caches and supply routes, as part of ongoing counterterrorism operations. This added Syria as a country where the US conducted military strikes in 2026.
Iran launches missile and drone strikes on US bases in Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and UAE
10 dips to 29%2%
Following US strikes in Iran, Iran retaliated with missile and drone attacks on US military bases across six Middle Eastern countries, increasing the number of countries involved in US-related military actions.
Iran retaliates with missile and drone strikes on US bases in Gulf states
9 dips to 26%4%
Iran launched missile and drone strikes on US military bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, UAE, and Saudi Arabia in early March 2026, expanding the conflict to multiple countries hosting US forces. This increased the count of countries where US military action was involved due to retaliatory strikes and counterstrikes.
Iranian missile and drone strikes target US military bases in Gulf states
Iran launched missile and drone attacks on US military bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Iraq, but no US air or missile strikes on these countries' soil were reported, indicating these countries were not targeted by US strikes in 2026.
Iran launches missile and drone strikes on multiple US-aligned countries
8 jumps to 66%5%
Following US strikes, Iran retaliated with missile and drone attacks on Bahrain, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, expanding the conflict across multiple countries' territories and increasing the count of countries where US military action might occur.
US conducts targeted airstrike killing senior Islamic State figure in Iraq
8 jumps to 55%8%
In March 2025 and continuing into 2026, the US conducted targeted airstrikes in Iraq against Islamic State operatives, including a notable strike killing Abdallah Makki Muslih al-Rifai, confirming US military action on Iraqi soil.
Iran launches missile and drone strikes on multiple US-aligned countries
9 drops to 7%8%
Following US strikes on Iran, Iran retaliated with missile and drone attacks on Bahrain, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, targeting US military bases and allied territories. This expanded the number of countries where US forces were engaged or targeted, affecting market expectations.
US deploys B-2 bombers, Tomahawk missiles, and suicide drones in strikes on Iran
9 plunges to 15%32%
The US intensified its military campaign against Iran using advanced weaponry including Tomahawk cruise missiles, B-2 stealth bombers, and suicide drones targeting Iranian military facilities. This demonstrated a significant escalation in US air strikes exclusively on Iranian territory, reinforcing market expectations of limited country targets.
Iran retaliates with missile and drone strikes on US bases in Middle East
Following US and Israeli strikes on Iran, Iran launched missile and drone attacks targeting US military bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, expanding the conflict to multiple countries' soil and increasing the count of countries involved in US military action.
Iran retaliates with missile and drone strikes on US bases in Gulf countries
11 dips to 4%4%
Following US and Israeli strikes on Iran, Iran launched missile and drone attacks on US military bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Jordan, and the UAE. These retaliatory strikes expanded the geographic scope of US military engagement to include multiple Middle Eastern countries.
US airstrikes destroy Iranian fighter jets and drone facilities
8 rises to 19%3%
On March 1, 2026, US airstrikes targeted Iranian air bases, destroying F-4 and Su-22 fighter jets and a Shahed-136 drone facility, significantly reducing Iran's strike capabilities. This action reinforced US military presence on Iranian soil.
U.S. deploys Tomahawk missiles, B-2 bombers, and suicide drones in strikes on Iran
9 plunges to 15%32%
The U.S. intensified its military campaign against Iranian targets using advanced weaponry including Tomahawk cruise missiles, stealth bombers, and suicide drones. This marked a significant escalation in aerial strikes on Iranian soil, confirming active U.S. military operations in Iran.
US expands military strikes against ISIS targets in Syria
In early 2026, US forces expanded strikes against ISIS targets in Syria, hitting weapons caches and supply routes, continuing US military action on Syrian soil during the year.
US airstrike kills senior Islamic State figure in Iraq
In March 2026, the US conducted targeted airstrikes in Iraq killing a senior Islamic State figure, marking continued US military action on Iraqi soil during 2026.
Iran launches missile and drone strikes on US and allied bases in Middle East
Following US strikes on Iran, Iranian forces launched missile and drone attacks on US military bases and allied countries including Bahrain, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, expanding the number of countries involved in the conflict and impacting market expectations.
US conducts airstrikes on Iranian missile and drone sites in response to attacks
9 jumps to 8%5%
Following the initial strikes, the US continued targeting Iranian missile and drone storage locations and radar sites, responding to Iranian missile and drone attacks on US bases and allies in the region. This sustained campaign confirmed ongoing US military action on Iranian soil.
US and Israeli forces launch nearly 900 strikes on Iranian military targets
10 plunges to 9%38%
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel initiated a large-scale air campaign against Iran, targeting missiles, air defenses, military infrastructure, and leadership, marking the start of Operation Epic Fury. This major military action on Iranian soil significantly impacted market expectations for US strikes in 2026.
US and Israel launch coordinated strikes on Iran targeting nuclear and military sites
10 plunges to 8%21%
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel commenced a large-scale air campaign against Iran, striking nearly 900 targets including nuclear facilities and military infrastructure. This marked a major escalation in US military action in the Middle East, significantly increasing the number of countries involved in US strikes.
US and Israel launch massive coordinated strikes on Iranian military targets
12 plunges to 3%44%
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel launched nearly 900 strikes targeting Iranian missiles, air defenses, military infrastructure, and leadership, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and others. This marked a major escalation and set the stage for retaliatory strikes and increased US military activity in the region, significantly impacting market expectations for US strikes in multiple countries.
United States and Israel launch major military strikes on Iran
8 jumps to 59%12%
The US and Israel initiated a large-scale coordinated air and missile strike campaign against multiple Iranian military and nuclear targets, marking the start of the 2026 Iran war. This significant escalation confirmed US military action on Iranian soil, impacting market expectations for the number of countries struck.
Iran launches missile and drone strikes on U.S. bases in Jordan and Gulf states
9 jumps to 11%8%
In retaliation to U.S. strikes, Iran launched missile and drone attacks targeting U.S. military facilities in Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, and other Gulf countries, expanding the conflict to multiple countries' territories and increasing the count of countries involved in U.S. military actions.
U.S. ATACMS strike hits Iranian missile and air‑defence sites
9 jumps to 13%9%
U.S. forces launched an ATACMS strike that destroyed Iranian missile and air‑defence sites, marking the first combat use of a U.S. autonomous kamikaze drone against Iran. This added Iran as a second distinct country hit by U.S. air‑launched weapons in 2026.
Iran fires missiles and drones at United Arab Emirates after U.S.‑Israel strike
10 rises to 13%1%
Following the U.S.–Israel strikes on Iran, Iran launched a multiday barrage of missiles and drones at the United Arab Emirates. The UAE’s defence systems intercepted many of them, but the exchange confirmed the UAE as a third distinct country involved in the 2026 U.S. strike/retaliation cycle.
US and Israeli forces launch nearly 900 strikes on Iranian military targets
9 drops to 33%14%
On February 28, 2026, US and Israeli forces conducted a massive coordinated air campaign targeting Iranian missile sites, air defenses, military infrastructure, and leadership, marking the start of Operation Epic Fury and significantly escalating the conflict. This event increased expectations of US military action on Iranian soil, impacting the market towards higher outcomes.
U.S. and Israeli forces launch nearly 900 strikes on Iranian military targets
8 plunges to 5%42%
On February 28, 2026, the U.S. and Israel commenced a large-scale air campaign against Iran, targeting missile sites, air defenses, and military infrastructure, marking the start of Operation Epic Fury and significantly escalating the conflict. This event set the stage for subsequent retaliatory strikes and expanded U.S. military actions in the region, impacting market expectations for the number of countries involved.
US and Israel conduct military strikes on Iran targeting missile and nuclear sites
8 surges to 27%17%
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel launched coordinated military strikes on Iranian missile, air defense, and nuclear-related facilities, marking a major US military action on Iranian soil and escalating regional conflict.
U.S. and Israel launch coordinated airstrikes on Iran initiating Operation Epic Fury
9 drops to 34%13%
The United States and Israel began a large-scale military campaign against Iran targeting nuclear and military infrastructure, marking the start of direct U.S. airstrikes on Iranian soil in 2026. This set the stage for subsequent U.S. strikes exclusively within Iran.
US and Israel commence military strikes in Iran under Operation Epic Fury
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel began coordinated missile, drone, and air strikes on Iranian military and nuclear sites, marking the start of a major military conflict. This escalation increased the likelihood of US strikes on multiple countries, driving market prices higher for outcomes with more countries targeted.
US and Israel conduct joint military strikes on Iran
9 drops to 35%12%
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel launched nearly 900 strikes targeting Iranian missiles, air defenses, military infrastructure, and leadership, including killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. This marked the start of a major military conflict involving Iran and significantly influenced market expectations for US strikes in multiple countries in the region.
US and Israel launch nearly 900 strikes on Iranian military targets
9 dips to 2%1%
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel conducted a massive coordinated strike campaign against Iranian missile, air defense, and military infrastructure, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and dozens of officials. This marked the start of a major US military campaign on Iranian soil, significantly affecting market expectations.
Iran launches drone and missile strikes on U.S. bases in Jordan and Gulf states
8 dips to 1%4%
In response to U.S. strikes on Iran, Iran launched missile and drone attacks targeting U.S. military facilities in Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, and other allied countries, expanding the conflict to multiple countries' territories.
US and Israel launch coordinated missile and drone strikes on Iran
8 jumps to 61%14%
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel commenced a large-scale air campaign targeting Iranian military and nuclear sites, marking a sharp escalation in the conflict and initiating Operation Epic Fury. This action significantly raised the likelihood of US military strikes on Iranian soil.
US and Israeli forces launch nearly 900 strikes on Iran in 12 hours
12 plunges to 3%44%
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel commenced a large-scale airstrike campaign against Iran targeting missiles, air defenses, military infrastructure, and leadership, marking the start of Operation Epic Fury and significantly increasing the likelihood of US strikes on Iranian soil.
US and Israel launch coordinated major air strikes on Iran
15+ plunges to 5%42%
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel commenced a large-scale air campaign targeting Iranian missile sites, air defenses, military infrastructure, and leadership, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and dozens of officials. This marked the start of Operation Epic Fury and significantly increased the likelihood of US strikes on Iranian soil.
US deploys LUCAS drones in joint strike campaign against Iran
13 plunges to 1%46%
On February 28, 2026, CENTCOM's Task Force Scorpion Strike used LUCAS drones in combat targeting Iranian command nodes and missile production, marking a doctrinal shift in US drone warfare and intensifying the Iran conflict.
US and Israel launch Operation Epic Fury against Iran
9 rises to 3%2%
On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury, a massive coordinated military campaign targeting Iranian military and nuclear infrastructure. The operation included hundreds of precision strikes, resulting in the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and significant degradation of Iran's military capabilities, marking a major escalation in US-Iran conflict.
US and Israel launch joint missile and drone strikes on Iran
8 jumps to 59%12%
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel initiated Operation Epic Fury, conducting coordinated missile and drone strikes on Iranian military and nuclear sites, significantly escalating US military action in the Middle East.
US and Israeli forces launch coordinated strikes on Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel commenced a large-scale air campaign targeting Iranian military and strategic sites, killing senior Iranian officials including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. This marked the start of the 2026 Iran war and significantly escalated US military action on Iranian soil.
US and Israel Launch Operation Epic Fury Against Iran
11 jumps to 14%13%
The United States and Israel launched a massive coordinated air campaign against Iranian military, missile, and air defense infrastructure, marking the official start of the 2026 Iran War.
US and Israeli forces launch nearly 900 strikes on Iranian military targets
8 dips to 1%4%
On February 28, 2026, US and Israeli forces conducted a massive wave of strikes targeting Iranian missiles, air defenses, and military infrastructure, killing key Iranian leaders and escalating the conflict. This event confirmed multiple strikes on Iranian soil, reinforcing market pricing for strikes in Iran.
US and Israel commence large-scale military strikes on Iran
9 plunges to 28%19%
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel launched coordinated missile and drone strikes on Iranian nuclear and military sites, marking the start of Operation Epic Fury authorized by President Trump. This major escalation significantly increased the number of countries involved in US military actions, particularly Iran.
Iran launches retaliatory missile and drone strikes on US bases in Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain
8 rises to 8%2%
Following US strikes on Iran, Iran launched missile and drone attacks targeting US and allied military facilities in Jordan, Kuwait, and Bahrain. This expanded the conflict to multiple countries' territories, increasing the count of countries where US military action was relevant due to reciprocal strikes and regional tensions.
US and Israel launch major coordinated air and missile strikes on Iran
8 jumps to 55%8%
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel initiated nearly 900 coordinated air and missile strikes targeting Iranian missile systems, military facilities, and leadership sites, marking the start of Operation Epic Fury and the 2026 Iran war. This large-scale military action confirmed US strikes on Iranian soil, significantly impacting market expectations for the number of countries struck.
US missile strike kills civilians at Lamerd sports hall in Iran
8 jumps to 59%12%
On February 28, 2026, a US missile strike hit a sports hall in Lamerd, Iran, killing at least 21 people. Investigations confirmed the use of a US Precision Strike Missile, confirming US military action on Iranian soil and impacting market expectations.
Iran launches missile and drone strikes on US bases in Jordan and Kuwait
8 jumps to 16%11%
Following US strikes on Iran, Iran launched missile and drone attacks targeting US and allied military facilities in Jordan and Kuwait, including the Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan. This expanded the conflict to multiple countries, affecting market pricing for US military actions.
US and Israel launch coordinated strikes on Iran targeting nuclear and military sites
13 plunges to 1%46%
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel commenced a large-scale air campaign against Iran, striking nearly 900 targets including missile sites, air defenses, and leadership facilities, marking a major escalation in the conflict and initiating Operation Epic Fury.
US and Israel launch nearly 900 strikes on Iranian military targets
8 plunges to 5%42%
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel commenced a large-scale air campaign against Iran, targeting missile sites, air defenses, and military infrastructure, marking the start of Operation Epic Fury and escalating the conflict significantly.
United States and Israel launch large-scale military strikes on Iran
9 plunges to 31%16%
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel initiated a massive coordinated air and missile strike campaign against multiple Iranian military targets, including missile production and nuclear facilities. This marked a significant escalation and confirmed US strikes on Iranian soil, impacting market prices towards higher strike counts.
US and Israel launch coordinated air and missile strikes on Iran
12 plunges to 2%46%
The United States and Israel initiated nearly 900 strikes targeting Iranian missile systems, military infrastructure, and leadership, marking the start of the 2026 Iran war. This large-scale operation confirmed US military action on Iranian soil, significantly impacting market expectations for the number of countries struck.
United States and Israel launch major coordinated military strikes on Iran
10 plunges to 11%36%
The U.S. and Israel initiated a large-scale air campaign against Iran targeting nuclear and missile facilities, marking a significant escalation and the start of sustained military operations on Iranian soil.
US and Israel commence coordinated airstrikes on Iran
8 drops to 41%6%
Following failed nuclear negotiations, the US and Israel launched extensive airstrikes on Iranian military and nuclear sites, initiating a major conflict theater and confirming Iran as a key country targeted in 2026.
US and Israel conduct coordinated military strikes in Iran
9 plunges to 3%44%
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel launched nearly 900 strikes targeting Iranian missiles, air defenses, military infrastructure, and leadership, marking a major escalation in the Iran conflict. This operation significantly influenced market pricing for US military actions in multiple countries.
US and Israel commence military strikes on Iran in Operation Epic Fury
8 plunges to 15%32%
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel began coordinated missile, drone, and air strikes on Iranian military and nuclear sites, marking the start of the 2026 Iran war. This initiated US military action on Iranian soil, directly impacting the market's outlook for the number of countries struck.
US and Israeli forces commence military strikes in Iran
8 plunges to 7%40%
Following failed negotiations on the Iranian nuclear program, the US and Israel began coordinated missile and drone strikes on Iranian territory, marking the start of significant US military action on Iranian soil in 2026.
U.S. launches cruise missile strikes on Iran from Syrian bases
9 drops to 34%13%
The U.S. launched cruise missile strikes from Syria targeting key Iranian military sites, marking a direct U.S. military action on Iranian soil and escalating the conflict in early 2026.
US and Israel launch joint missile and drone strikes on Iran
9 plunges to 32%15%
The US and Israel initiated a large-scale air campaign against Iran on February 28, 2026, targeting military and strategic sites, marking a significant escalation and confirmed US military action on Iranian soil.
U.S. and Israel launch coordinated strikes on Iranian military infrastructure
8 surges to 63%16%
On February 28, 2026, the U.S. and Israel commenced a large-scale air campaign targeting Iranian nuclear, missile, and leadership sites, marking a major escalation in the conflict and initiating Operation Epic Fury. This joint strike campaign significantly increased the likelihood of U.S. military action on Iranian soil.
US launches Operation Epic Fury with strikes on Iranian military sites
8 plunges to 19%28%
The US launched a major military campaign against Iran, including missile and drone strikes on Iranian military targets, marking the start of significant US military action on Iranian soil in 2026. This event set the stage for the market by confirming at least one country targeted: Iran.
US and Israeli forces launch coordinated strikes on Iran
11 plunges to 6%41%
Following failed nuclear negotiations, the US and Israel launched nearly 900 strikes targeting Iranian missiles, air defenses, and military infrastructure, marking a major escalation in the conflict and initiating Operation Epic Fury.
US and Israel launch coordinated airstrikes on Iran
9 plunges to 26%21%
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel commenced large-scale airstrikes on Iranian military and strategic targets, marking the start of Operation Epic Fury. This escalated the conflict and set the stage for further US military actions in the region.
US and Israel commence military strikes in Iran under Operation Epic Fury
9 plunges to 31%16%
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel began coordinated missile and drone strikes on Iranian military and nuclear sites, marking the start of direct US military action on Iranian soil and expanding the number of countries targeted by US strikes.
US and Israel launch major coordinated military strikes on Iran
9 plunges to 31%16%
The United States and Israel initiated a large-scale military strike against multiple targets inside Iran, including missile production facilities and air defense systems, marking a significant escalation in the Iran conflict and leading to widespread damage and casualties.
US and Israel launch coordinated military strikes on Iran
On February 27-28, 2026, the US and Israel conducted missile and drone strikes on Iranian military targets as part of Operation Epic Fury, marking the start of intensified military action against Iran. This event increased market expectations of US strikes on Iranian soil, influencing the market towards lower numbers of countries targeted.
US authorizes Operation Epic Fury, initiating strikes on Iran
10 plunges to 8%39%
On February 27, 2026, President Trump authorized Operation Epic Fury, leading to US missile and drone strikes on Iranian territory starting February 28. This marked the beginning of direct US military action on Iranian soil, significantly impacting market expectations for the number of countries targeted.
US launches Operation Epic Fury airstrikes against Iran
8 drops to 41%6%
The US initiated a major air campaign named Operation Epic Fury against Iran, targeting nuclear and missile facilities, marking the start of significant US military action on Iranian soil in 2026. This set the stage for ongoing strikes throughout the year, influencing market expectations for US military actions.
Trump authorizes Operation Epic Fury, initiating US strikes on Iran
8 plunges to 5%42%
On February 27, 2026, President Trump authorized Operation Epic Fury, leading to US missile and drone strikes on Iranian territory starting February 28. This marked the beginning of direct US military action on Iranian soil, significantly impacting market expectations for the number of countries targeted.
US authorizes Operation Epic Fury, launching strikes on Iran
15+ plunges to 1%47%
On February 27, 2026, President Trump authorized Operation Epic Fury, leading to US and Israeli missile and drone strikes on Iranian military infrastructure starting February 28. This marked a significant escalation in US military action against Iran, influencing market expectations about the number of countries targeted.
US authorizes Operation Epic Fury, begins missile and drone strikes on Iran
8 jumps to 59%12%
On February 27, 2026, President Trump authorized Operation Epic Fury, leading to US missile, drone, and air strikes on Iranian territory starting February 28. This marked the beginning of direct US military action on Iranian soil, significantly impacting market expectations for the number of countries targeted.
US and Israel commence military strikes on Iran under Operation Epic Fury
8 plunges to 5%42%
On February 27, 2026, President Trump authorized Operation Epic Fury, leading to US and Israeli missile and drone strikes on Iranian military targets starting February 28. This marked the beginning of a major US military campaign against Iran, driving market expectations for multiple strikes on Iranian soil.
US authorizes Operation Epic Fury, begins missile and drone strikes on Iran
9 plunges to 30%17%
On February 27, 2026, President Trump authorized Operation Epic Fury, leading to US missile, drone, and Israeli fighter jet strikes on Iran starting February 28. This marked the beginning of direct US military action on Iranian soil, significantly impacting market expectations for the number of countries struck.
US and Mexico conduct joint military operation against cartel leader, escalating military actions
On February 22, 2026, the US and Mexico launched a joint military operation to capture a cartel leader, resulting in multiple deaths and escalating violence, marking US military action on Mexican soil in 2026.
US and Mexico conduct joint military operation killing cartel leader El Mencho
9 plunges to 3%44%
On February 22, 2026, the US and Mexico launched a joint operation targeting a major cartel leader, resulting in his death and escalating military activity in Mexico, contributing to the count of countries with US military strikes.
Joint US-Mexico military operation kills cartel leader
9 plunges to 32%15%
On February 22, 2026, the US and Mexico conducted a joint military strike targeting a cartel leader, resulting in his death and widespread violence in Mexico, confirming US military action on Mexican soil.
Joint US-Mexico military operation kills cartel leader
8 jumps to 59%12%
On February 22, 2026, the US and Mexico conducted a joint military operation targeting a cartel leader, resulting in his death and widespread violence, marking another country where US military action occurred in 2026.
US AFRICOM conducts airstrikes targeting ISIS-Somalia in Golis Mountains
8 jumps to 16%7%
Between February 22-26 and on February 28, 2026, U.S. Africa Command conducted airstrikes targeting ISIS-Somalia in the Golis Mountains region, Somalia, further intensifying US military operations in Somalia.
US military conducts three lethal strikes on suspected drug boats in Pacific and Caribbean
9 surges to 29%17%
On February 16, 2026, US forces carried out three lethal strikes on small boats in international waters in the eastern Pacific and Caribbean, killing 11 people. These strikes were part of the ongoing Operation Southern Spear targeting narcotics smuggling routes.
US Southern Command announces lethal strike killing two on vessel in eastern Pacific
9 jumps to 12%7%
On February 6, 2026, US Southern Command announced a lethal strike on a vessel in the eastern Pacific Ocean as part of Operation Southern Spear targeting suspected drug traffickers. This strike was part of a broader campaign of maritime military actions in international waters near Latin America.
U.S. drone strike kills four Al-Qaeda operatives in Marib, Yemen
U.S. drone strike killed four AQAP members in Marib province, Yemen, continuing the U.S. drone campaign against terrorist groups in Yemen during 2026.
US conducts airstrikes against Islamic State militants in Somalia
On February 1, 2026, US forces carried out airstrikes targeting Islamic State-affiliated militants in Somalia, marking US military action on Somali soil as part of counterterrorism operations.
US conducts airstrikes against Islamic State in Somalia
8 plunges to 5%42%
US forces carried out airstrikes targeting Islamic State-affiliated militants in Somalia, expanding counterterrorism operations in Africa and marking Somalia as a country where US military action occurred in 2026.
US Africa Command conducts airstrike targeting al-Shabaab in Somalia
9 rises to 3%2%
On January 29, 2026, US Africa Command, in coordination with the Federal Government of Somalia, conducted an airstrike targeting al-Shabaab militants. This was part of ongoing US counterterrorism operations in Somalia aimed at degrading terrorist capabilities threatening US interests and regional stability.
U.S. drone strike targets Al-Qaeda leaders in eastern Marib, Yemen
8 drops to 35%12%
A U.S. drone strike targeted a meeting of Al-Qaeda leaders in Marib province, Yemen, killing several militants. This continued the U.S. counterterrorism campaign against AQAP in Yemen, confirming ongoing U.S. military action on Yemeni soil.
US forces capture Venezuelan President Maduro in military incursion
In January 2026, US forces conducted a military operation in Caracas, Venezuela, capturing President Nicolás Maduro and escalating US military involvement in South America, marking a new country targeted by US military action.
US conducts airstrike targeting ISIS in Somalia
8 jumps to 23%7%
In coordination with the Federal Government of Somalia, the US Africa Command conducted airstrikes targeting ISIS-Somalia, marking Somalia as another country where the US conducted military strikes in 2026.
Putin offers to mediate Middle East tensions after calls with Israel and Iran
7 drops to 39%7%
Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke with Israeli and Iranian leaders, pitching Russia as a mediator amid regional tensions and U.S. threats of strikes on Iran. This diplomatic move suggested a de-escalation in U.S. military action in the Middle East, reducing market expectations for U.S. strikes on multiple countries.
US announces plans to strike Mexican drug cartels on land
President Trump declared the US would begin military strikes against drug cartels on Mexican soil, signaling a new front in the US campaign against narcotics trafficking in 2026.
US forces capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in military incursion
In January 2026, US forces conducted a military operation in Caracas resulting in the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, marking direct US military action on Venezuelan soil and expanding the number of countries involved in US military operations.
U.S. forces capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in Caracas incursion
In January 2026, U.S. forces conducted a military incursion into Caracas, Venezuela, resulting in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro and his transfer to the United States, marking a significant direct U.S. military action in Latin America.
US AFRICOM conducts airstrikes targeting al-Shabaab in Somalia
8 jumps to 27%12%
U.S. Africa Command conducted airstrikes targeting al-Shabaab militants in Somalia on January 14, 2026, continuing its counterterrorism campaign in the region and reinforcing US military presence in Somalia.
U.S. Africa Command conducts airstrikes targeting al-Shabaab in Somalia
AFRICOM conducted airstrikes against al-Shabaab militants in Somalia, marking US military action on Somali soil in 2026 and contributing to the count of countries targeted by US strikes.
US conducts drone strikes against Al Qaeda in Yemen
In early 2026, US drone strikes targeted senior Al Qaeda officials in eastern Marib, Yemen, indicating ongoing covert military operations in Yemen and adding to the list of countries where US military action occurred.
Reported US drone strike kills senior AQAP officials in Yemen's Marib region
On January 11, 2026, reports indicated a US drone strike in eastern Marib, Yemen, killed two senior AQAP officials, suggesting ongoing covert US military operations against terrorist groups in Yemen despite official denials.
US conducts covert drone strikes against AQAP in Yemen
Throughout early 2026, US airstrikes targeted Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) in Yemen, indicating US military action on Yemeni soil beyond the Iran conflict, contributing to the total count of countries with US strikes in 2026.
U.S. drone strike kills senior AQAP officials in Yemen
On January 11, 2026, U.S. forces conducted a drone strike in eastern Marib, Yemen, killing two senior Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula officials, indicating ongoing covert U.S. military operations in Yemen despite official ceasefire announcements.
US expands counterterrorism airstrikes against ISIS in Syria and Iraq
The US conducted multiple airstrikes targeting ISIS in Syria and Iraq, killing key operatives and expanding counterterrorism operations in these countries, confirming US military action in both Syria and Iraq in 2026.
US and Jordan launch second wave of airstrikes against Islamic State targets in Syria
The US and Jordan conducted precision airstrikes against ISIS targets in Syria, continuing US military operations on Syrian soil in early 2026.
US and Jordan launch airstrikes against ISIS targets in Syria
8 plunges to 11%36%
On January 10, 2026, the US and Jordan conducted airstrikes targeting ISIS communication sites, logistics nodes, and weapons storage in Syria, marking continued US military action outside Iran.
US conducts large-scale strikes against ISIS targets in Syria
8 jumps to 16%6%
Following an IS ambush killing US personnel, the US launched large-scale air strikes against over 35 ISIS targets in Syria, expanding military action on Syrian soil and impacting market expectations for the number of countries struck.
US expands strikes against ISIS targets in Syria
Following attacks on US personnel, the US conducted large-scale strikes against ISIS targets in Syria, involving over 35 targets, demonstrating ongoing counterterrorism operations in the region.
U.S. and Jordan launch airstrikes against Islamic State targets in Syria
The US, alongside Jordan, launched a wave of airstrikes targeting ISIS in Syria, expanding US military action to Syrian territory in 2026.
US carries out large-scale strikes against ISIS targets in Syria
8 jumps to 55%8%
On January 10, 2026, the US conducted large-scale airstrikes against Islamic State targets in Syria, involving over 90 munitions fired at more than 35 targets. This confirmed US military action on Syrian soil during 2026.
US launches Operation Hawkeye Strike targeting ISIS in Syria
9 rises to 4%3%
In response to a December 13, 2025 ambush that killed two US soldiers and a civilian interpreter, the US launched Operation Hawkeye Strike, conducting large-scale airstrikes against over 35 ISIS targets across Syria. The operation involved more than 20 aircraft and over 90 precision munitions, signaling a strong US commitment to counterterrorism in the region.
US launches large-scale strikes against Islamic State targets in Syria
8 drops to 41%6%
In January 2026, the US conducted extensive airstrikes against Islamic State targets in Syria following an IS attack, marking active military operations in Syria and contributing to the count of countries struck.
US launches air strikes against ISIS targets in Syria
8 drops to 41%6%
The US military conducted air strikes on ISIS targets in Syria as part of expanded counterterrorism operations, confirming ongoing US military action in Syria and contributing to the count of countries targeted in 2026.
US and Jordanian forces conduct second wave of airstrikes on ISIS positions in Syria
On January 10, 2026, US and Jordanian forces launched a second wave of airstrikes on dozens of ISIS positions near Deir ez-Zor, Syria, using over 90 munitions. This was part of an ongoing campaign against ISIS in Syria and Iraq following a December ambush that killed two US soldiers.
US conducts airstrikes against ISIS targets in Syria
8 jumps to 16%11%
The US and Jordan launched multiple airstrikes against Islamic State targets in Syria, utilizing precision munitions to destroy ISIS infrastructure. This confirmed Syria as a country where the US conducted military strikes in 2026.
U.S. military launches large-scale air strikes against ISIS targets in Syria
8 jumps to 15%7%
Following an IS ambush that killed U.S. personnel, the U.S. conducted extensive air strikes on ISIS targets in Syria, involving over 90 munitions on more than 35 targets, demonstrating increased U.S. military engagement in Syria.
US launches retaliatory strikes against ISIS in Syria after deadly ambush
In response to an ambush killing US personnel, the US launched airstrikes against ISIS targets in Syria, continuing military operations in the country.
US launches airstrikes on militant camps in Nigeria's Sokoto state
9 rises to 13%3%
The US military conducted airstrikes targeting Lakurawa militant camps in northwestern Nigeria, marking a direct military action on Nigerian soil. This event increased the likelihood of the US conducting strikes in Nigeria, affecting the market's assessment of the number of countries targeted.
U.S. forces capture Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro in Caracas
8 jumps to 8%7%
In early 2026, the U.S. launched a military operation in Venezuela that resulted in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, marking a significant direct military action on Venezuelan soil and escalating U.S. involvement in Latin America.
US launches military strike in Venezuela capturing President Maduro
9 drops to 35%12%
On January 3, 2026, the US launched a military strike in Venezuela, capturing incumbent President Nicolás Maduro and his wife. This operation involved bombing infrastructure across northern Venezuela and marked a significant US military action outside the Middle East in 2026, impacting market expectations for the number of countries targeted.
US military operation captures Venezuelan President Maduro in Caracas
8 jumps to 59%12%
On January 3, 2026, US forces launched a military operation in Venezuela resulting in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, escalating US military involvement in the country and increasing the count of countries targeted by US strikes.
US forces capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in Caracas operation
9 plunges to 28%19%
In January 2026, US forces conducted a military incursion into Venezuela, capturing President Nicolás Maduro and significantly escalating US military involvement in the country. This marked a new country where the US initiated military action in 2026, impacting market expectations.
US forces capture Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro in Caracas operation
8 surges to 66%19%
In January 2026, US forces conducted a military operation in Venezuela resulting in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, marking direct US military action on Venezuelan soil and expanding the number of countries involved in US military operations in 2026.
U.S. launches military strike in Venezuela capturing President Maduro
8 dips to 44%3%
The U.S. launched a military operation in Venezuela, bombing infrastructure and capturing President Nicolás Maduro, marking a significant military action outside the Middle East and confirming Venezuela as a target country in 2026.
US conducts large-scale military strike in Venezuela, captures Maduro
7 drops to 39%7%
The US launched a major military operation in Venezuela, capturing President Nicolas Maduro and his wife, marking a direct US military action on Venezuelan soil. This event confirmed at least one country where the US initiated military strikes in 2026, significantly impacting market probabilities.
US military operation captures Venezuela's leader Maduro
8 jumps to 7%6%
In early January 2026, the US launched a military operation in Venezuela that resulted in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, marking a significant escalation in US military involvement in Latin America and increasing the count of countries targeted by US strikes.
US military operation captures Venezuelan leader Maduro
In January 2026, US forces conducted a military operation in Venezuela, capturing President Nicolás Maduro and demonstrating US military action in Latin America beyond the Middle East.
US military strikes and captures Venezuelan President Maduro
9 rises to 3%2%
On January 3, 2026, the United States launched a military strike in Venezuela, capturing incumbent President Nicolás Maduro and his wife. The operation marked a significant US military intervention in Venezuela, involving airstrikes and covert operations, and led to Maduro's removal from power and transfer to US custody.
US forces capture Venezuelan President Maduro in Caracas operation
8 surges to 64%17%
In January 2026, US forces conducted a military operation in Venezuela resulting in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, significantly escalating US military involvement in the country and increasing the count of nations targeted by US strikes.
U.S. launches large-scale military strikes and captures Maduro in Venezuela
10 plunges to 11%36%
The U.S. launched a major military operation in Venezuela, striking Caracas and capturing President Nicolás Maduro, signaling direct U.S. military action in the country and increasing the count of countries with U.S. strikes.
U.S. military operation captures Venezuelan President Maduro
8 surges to 68%21%
In January 2026, U.S. forces conducted a military incursion into Caracas, Venezuela, resulting in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro. This direct military action in Venezuela added to the list of countries where the U.S. conducted strikes or operations in 2026.
US launches military operation extracting Maduro from Venezuela
On January 3, 2026, the US launched a military operation in Venezuela that extracted President Maduro and his wife from Caracas, marking a significant US military action in South America.
US launches large-scale military strikes and captures Maduro in Venezuela
9 plunges to 32%15%
On January 3, 2026, the US launched a major military operation in Venezuela, striking Caracas and capturing President Nicolás Maduro, marking a significant expansion of US military action in Latin America and increasing the number of countries where the US conducted strikes.
US Delta Force raid captures Venezuelan President Maduro
US forces conducted a raid in Caracas, Venezuela, capturing President Nicolás Maduro on drug trafficking charges, marking direct US military action on Venezuelan soil and expanding the number of countries involved in US military operations in 2026.
US launches military strike in Venezuela and captures President Maduro
8 surges to 62%15%
On January 3, 2026, the US launched a military strike in Venezuela, bombing infrastructure and capturing President Nicolás Maduro, marking a significant military action on Venezuelan soil.
U.S. forces conduct military operation in Venezuela, capturing President Maduro
In January 2026, U.S. forces carried out a military incursion into Venezuela, capturing the country's leader and marking direct U.S. military action on Venezuelan soil, adding to the list of countries with U.S. military strikes in 2026.
US forces capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in Caracas incursion
13 plunges to 1%46%
In January 2026, US forces conducted a military operation in Venezuela resulting in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, significantly impacting the political situation and marking direct US military action in Latin America.
US military launches operation capturing Venezuela's leader Maduro
8 jumps to 8%7%
In early 2026, the US launched a military operation in Venezuela, capturing President Nicolás Maduro, marking a direct military action on Venezuelan soil and escalating US involvement in Latin America.
US military operation captures Venezuelan President Maduro
On January 3, 2026, US forces conducted a military operation in Venezuela resulting in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, marking a significant US military action on Venezuelan soil and increasing the count of countries involved in US military actions in 2026.
US military operation captures Venezuelan President Maduro
9 plunges to 31%16%
In January 2026, US forces conducted a military incursion into Caracas, capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, significantly escalating US military involvement in Venezuela and adding a new country to the list of US military actions in 2026.
US military conducts strikes in Venezuela, capturing Maduro
8 jumps to 59%12%
On January 3, 2026, the US launched military strikes in Venezuela, resulting in the capture and extraction of Nicolás Maduro and his wife. This marked a significant US military action on Venezuelan soil, contributing to the count of countries targeted in 2026.
US military strikes Venezuela, capturing President Maduro
8 plunges to 5%42%
The US launched a military strike in Venezuela, capturing incumbent President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, marking a significant military action in South America and expanding US military engagement to Venezuela.
US forces conduct incursion into Venezuela, capturing President Maduro
8 jumps to 55%8%
In January 2026, US forces carried out a military operation in Venezuela, capturing President Nicolás Maduro and significantly escalating US military involvement in Latin America. This confirmed US military action on Venezuelan soil during 2026.
US AFRICOM conducts airstrikes targeting ISIS-Somalia
8 jumps to 18%13%
In coordination with the Federal Government of Somalia, U.S. Africa Command conducted airstrikes targeting ISIS-Somalia from January 1-3, 2026. This marked the continuation of US counterterrorism operations in Somalia, impacting market expectations for US military action in Somalia.
US expands counterterrorism operations in Africa and Middle East
The US increased military operations against terrorist groups in Somalia, Nigeria, Yemen, and Syria, involving airstrikes and drone attacks across multiple countries in 2026.
U.S. drone strike hits Venezuelan vessel in Caribbean
8 rises to 5%4%
The U.S. carried out a drone strike on a vessel tied to the Venezuelan drug‑trafficking network in the Caribbean. This was the first U.S. aerial strike on Venezuelan soil in 2026, adding Venezuela to the list of countries hit by U.S. drone or missile attacks and pushing the market outlook toward a higher country count.
US launches airstrikes against ISIS militants in Nigeria
9 drops to 35%12%
On Christmas Day 2025, the US military, in coordination with Nigerian forces, launched airstrikes targeting Islamic State militants in northwest Nigeria, marking a new phase in US counterterrorism efforts in Africa. This operation was publicly described by President Trump as a powerful strike against ISIS terrorists, signaling increased US military involvement in Nigeria.
US Africa Command launches airstrikes in Nigeria targeting Islamic State militants
9 plunges to 3%44%
On Christmas night 2025, the US Africa Command conducted airstrikes in Sokoto State, Nigeria, targeting Islamic State terrorists. This marked the first American combat action inside Nigeria and was acknowledged as a significant escalation in US military involvement there.
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