The Illinois 5th Congressional District’s D+19 partisan voting index and consistent Democratic margins of 30+ points in recent cycles underpin the market’s assessment of Mike Quigley’s position. The incumbent secured renomination in the March 2026 Democratic primary with roughly 65 percent of the vote against three challengers, while Tommy Hanson prevailed in the Republican primary. Quigley’s long tenure, fundraising advantage, and the district’s Chicago-area composition have limited Republican competitiveness. Hanson’s repeat candidacy has not narrowed the gap from the 2024 general election. A late withdrawal by Quigley tied to his Chicago mayoral bid, an unforeseen scandal, or a major national shift altering turnout patterns represent the primary variables that could narrow the implied probability before the November 3 general election.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtIL-05 House Election Winner
IL-05 House Election Winner
$25,272 KL.
$25,272 KL.
Nov 2, 2026
Mike Quigley (D)
95%
Tommy Hanson (R)
5%
$25,272 KL.
$25,272 KL.
Nov 2, 2026
Mike Quigley (D)
$8,976 KL.
95%
Tommy Hanson (R)
$16,296 KL.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Illinois 5th Congressional District’s D+19 partisan voting index and consistent Democratic margins of 30+ points in recent cycles underpin the market’s assessment of Mike Quigley’s position. The incumbent secured renomination in the March 2026 Democratic primary with roughly 65 percent of the vote against three challengers, while Tommy Hanson prevailed in the Republican primary. Quigley’s long tenure, fundraising advantage, and the district’s Chicago-area composition have limited Republican competitiveness. Hanson’s repeat candidacy has not narrowed the gap from the 2024 general election. A late withdrawal by Quigley tied to his Chicago mayoral bid, an unforeseen scandal, or a major national shift altering turnout patterns represent the primary variables that could narrow the implied probability before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Khối lượng
$25,272Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Illinois 5th Congressional District’s D+19 partisan voting index and consistent Democratic margins of 30+ points in recent cycles underpin the market’s assessment of Mike Quigley’s position. The incumbent secured renomination in the March 2026 Democratic primary with roughly 65 percent of the vote against three challengers, while Tommy Hanson prevailed in the Republican primary. Quigley’s long tenure, fundraising advantage, and the district’s Chicago-area composition have limited Republican competitiveness. Hanson’s repeat candidacy has not narrowed the gap from the 2024 general election. A late withdrawal by Quigley tied to his Chicago mayoral bid, an unforeseen scandal, or a major national shift altering turnout patterns represent the primary variables that could narrow the implied probability before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$25,272Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x2F5e3684c...The Illinois 5th Congressional District’s D+19 partisan voting index and consistent Democratic margins of 30+ points in recent cycles underpin the market’s assessment of Mike Quigley’s position. The incumbent secured renomination in the March 2026 Democratic primary with roughly 65 percent of the vote against three challengers, while Tommy Hanson prevailed in the Republican primary. Quigley’s long tenure, fundraising advantage, and the district’s Chicago-area composition have limited Republican competitiveness. Hanson’s repeat candidacy has not narrowed the gap from the 2024 general election. A late withdrawal by Quigley tied to his Chicago mayoral bid, an unforeseen scandal, or a major national shift altering turnout patterns represent the primary variables that could narrow the implied probability before the November 3 general election.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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