Ongoing effects of 2025-2026 U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran's Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan facilities, which damaged enrichment infrastructure while leaving a substantial 60%-enriched uranium stockpile unaccounted for, combined with stalled post-ceasefire diplomacy, underpin traders' 95.7% consensus against an Iranian nuclear device before 2027. IAEA reports through early September 2026 confirm continued denial of inspector access and no verified resumption of enrichment or weaponization activities, consistent with U.S. intelligence assessments placing breakout timelines near or beyond one year. Realistic shifts could arise from undetected use of hidden centrifuges or material for rapid further enrichment, collapse of current talks, or covert weaponization efforts at undeclared sites.