Lula’s campaign is actively weighing participation in the final pre-first-round televised debate on Globo scheduled for October 1, while keeping those dates open on his calendar after returning from the UN General Assembly. This follows his consistent avoidance of earlier events, including the August 23 Band debate and a canceled September consortium event, driven by concerns over facing concentrated attacks from rivals in multi-candidate formats and a preference for controlled interviews. Recent polling tightening against Flávio Bolsonaro has prompted the PT side to reassess exposure strategies and intensify direct confrontations. Flávio’s allies have stated he will only join if Lula confirms. These factors sustain the near-even trader consensus around the 53% implied probability for yes, with resolution hinging on whether the Globo appearance materializes before the October 4 first round.