Meta’s internal codename for its next frontier large language model after Muse Spark, Watermelon remains in training as of early September 2026 but has drawn trader attention from Chief AI Officer Alexandr Wang’s July statements that the model already matches OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 on unspecified internal benchmarks while using roughly 10x the compute of its predecessor. The September 3 release of Muse Spark 1.3, with notable gains in coding and agentic capabilities, reinforced Meta’s rapid iteration pace and $125–145 billion infrastructure spend, yet Wang offered no firm Watermelon timeline beyond calling it “extremely competitive.” Market odds reflect uncertainty around verification of those benchmarks, potential slippage in an October target for public or API availability, and competition from faster-moving rivals.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$12,498 KL.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
5%
October 31
74%
November 30
93%
$12,498 KL.
September 30
$3,395 KL.
5%
October 31
$6,384 KL.
74%
November 30
$2,719 KL.
93%
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta’s internal codename for its next frontier large language model after Muse Spark, Watermelon remains in training as of early September 2026 but has drawn trader attention from Chief AI Officer Alexandr Wang’s July statements that the model already matches OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 on unspecified internal benchmarks while using roughly 10x the compute of its predecessor. The September 3 release of Muse Spark 1.3, with notable gains in coding and agentic capabilities, reinforced Meta’s rapid iteration pace and $125–145 billion infrastructure spend, yet Wang offered no firm Watermelon timeline beyond calling it “extremely competitive.” Market odds reflect uncertainty around verification of those benchmarks, potential slippage in an October target for public or API availability, and competition from faster-moving rivals.
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
Khối lượng
$12,498Ngày kết thúc
Nov 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta’s internal codename for its next frontier large language model after Muse Spark, Watermelon remains in training as of early September 2026 but has drawn trader attention from Chief AI Officer Alexandr Wang’s July statements that the model already matches OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 on unspecified internal benchmarks while using roughly 10x the compute of its predecessor. The September 3 release of Muse Spark 1.3, with notable gains in coding and agentic capabilities, reinforced Meta’s rapid iteration pace and $125–145 billion infrastructure spend, yet Wang offered no firm Watermelon timeline beyond calling it “extremely competitive.” Market odds reflect uncertainty around verification of those benchmarks, potential slippage in an October target for public or API availability, and competition from faster-moving rivals.
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$12,498Ngày kết thúc
Nov 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Meta’s internal codename for its next frontier large language model after Muse Spark, Watermelon remains in training as of early September 2026 but has drawn trader attention from Chief AI Officer Alexandr Wang’s July statements that the model already matches OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 on unspecified internal benchmarks while using roughly 10x the compute of its predecessor. The September 3 release of Muse Spark 1.3, with notable gains in coding and agentic capabilities, reinforced Meta’s rapid iteration pace and $125–145 billion infrastructure spend, yet Wang offered no firm Watermelon timeline beyond calling it “extremely competitive.” Market odds reflect uncertainty around verification of those benchmarks, potential slippage in an October target for public or API availability, and competition from faster-moving rivals.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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