Elon Musk’s September 11 announcement that Grok 4.7 still requires additional reinforcement-learning tuning for response length and task management has become the dominant driver of trader sentiment, shifting implied probabilities toward a mid-September window after the missed September 12 target. The 2.1-trillion-parameter model, trained with supplemental SpaceX engineering data and positioned as superior to Grok 4.6 in every dimension except inference speed, follows the rapid August 12 release of its predecessor. Close probabilities clustered between September 15 and 18 reflect market consensus on a brief final refinement period amid competitive pressure from expected Meta and OpenAI updates this month. Traders weigh xAI’s history of timeline slippage against the company’s accelerated cadence and the absence of an official xAI launch announcement.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtSeptember 17 37.8%
September 16 36.6%
September 15 36.6%
September 18 8%
$10,174 KL.
$10,174 KL.
Sep 12, 2026
September 12
1%
September 13
32%
September 14
29%
September 15
37%
September 16
37%
September 17
38%
September 18
33%
September 19
21%
September 20
18%
September 21
26%
September 22
3%
September 23
6%
September 24
3%
September 25
<1%
September 26
<1%
September 27
<1%
September 28
7%
September 29
2%
September 30
1%
No release by September 30
<1%
September 17 37.8%
September 16 36.6%
September 15 36.6%
September 18 8%
$10,174 KL.
$10,174 KL.
Sep 12, 2026
September 12
$909 KL.
1%
September 13
$541 KL.
32%
September 14
$205 KL.
29%
September 15
$257 KL.
37%
September 16
$215 KL.
37%
September 17
$215 KL.
38%
September 18
$437 KL.
33%
September 19
$668 KL.
21%
September 20
$643 KL.
18%
September 21
$567 KL.
26%
September 22
$353 KL.
3%
September 23
$580 KL.
6%
September 24
$353 KL.
3%
September 25
$510 KL.
<1%
September 26
$513 KL.
<1%
September 27
$513 KL.
<1%
September 28
$461 KL.
7%
September 29
$387 KL.
2%
September 30
$515 KL.
1%
No release by September 30
$513 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk’s September 11 announcement that Grok 4.7 still requires additional reinforcement-learning tuning for response length and task management has become the dominant driver of trader sentiment, shifting implied probabilities toward a mid-September window after the missed September 12 target. The 2.1-trillion-parameter model, trained with supplemental SpaceX engineering data and positioned as superior to Grok 4.6 in every dimension except inference speed, follows the rapid August 12 release of its predecessor. Close probabilities clustered between September 15 and 18 reflect market consensus on a brief final refinement period amid competitive pressure from expected Meta and OpenAI updates this month. Traders weigh xAI’s history of timeline slippage against the company’s accelerated cadence and the absence of an official xAI launch announcement.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ET
Khối lượng
$10,174Ngày kết thúc
Sep 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk’s September 11 announcement that Grok 4.7 still requires additional reinforcement-learning tuning for response length and task management has become the dominant driver of trader sentiment, shifting implied probabilities toward a mid-September window after the missed September 12 target. The 2.1-trillion-parameter model, trained with supplemental SpaceX engineering data and positioned as superior to Grok 4.6 in every dimension except inference speed, follows the rapid August 12 release of its predecessor. Close probabilities clustered between September 15 and 18 reflect market consensus on a brief final refinement period amid competitive pressure from expected Meta and OpenAI updates this month. Traders weigh xAI’s history of timeline slippage against the company’s accelerated cadence and the absence of an official xAI launch announcement.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$10,174Ngày kết thúc
Sep 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk’s September 11 announcement that Grok 4.7 still requires additional reinforcement-learning tuning for response length and task management has become the dominant driver of trader sentiment, shifting implied probabilities toward a mid-September window after the missed September 12 target. The 2.1-trillion-parameter model, trained with supplemental SpaceX engineering data and positioned as superior to Grok 4.6 in every dimension except inference speed, follows the rapid August 12 release of its predecessor. Close probabilities clustered between September 15 and 18 reflect market consensus on a brief final refinement period amid competitive pressure from expected Meta and OpenAI updates this month. Traders weigh xAI’s history of timeline slippage against the company’s accelerated cadence and the absence of an official xAI launch announcement.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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