A strong, rapidly intensifying El Niño event currently drives trader expectations for September 2026 global temperatures, with weekly Niño 3.4 anomalies reaching +2.6°C by late August and models projecting a very strong peak (over 90% chance of +2.0°C or greater) in October–December. This builds on background anthropogenic warming and follows 2024 as the record warmest year and 2025 among the top three, with El Niño’s lagged influence on atmospheric temperatures expected to elevate late-2026 monthly values. Market-implied odds favor second-hottest (57%) over first (36%) or third (25.5%) due to the event’s timing and strength relative to historical analogs, though internal variability and dataset differences introduce uncertainty in exact September ranking ahead of official NOAA and NASA releases.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtSeptember 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?
September 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?
2nd hottest 57%
4th or lower 39%
1st hottest 36%
3rd hottest 26%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 30, 2026
1st hottest
36%
2nd hottest
57%
3rd hottest
26%
4th or lower
39%
2nd hottest 57%
4th or lower 39%
1st hottest 36%
3rd hottest 26%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 30, 2026
1st hottest
$273 KL.
36%
2nd hottest
$0 KL.
57%
3rd hottest
$0 KL.
26%
4th or lower
$250 KL.
39%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.A strong, rapidly intensifying El Niño event currently drives trader expectations for September 2026 global temperatures, with weekly Niño 3.4 anomalies reaching +2.6°C by late August and models projecting a very strong peak (over 90% chance of +2.0°C or greater) in October–December. This builds on background anthropogenic warming and follows 2024 as the record warmest year and 2025 among the top three, with El Niño’s lagged influence on atmospheric temperatures expected to elevate late-2026 monthly values. Market-implied odds favor second-hottest (57%) over first (36%) or third (25.5%) due to the event’s timing and strength relative to historical analogs, though internal variability and dataset differences introduce uncertainty in exact September ranking ahead of official NOAA and NASA releases.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Thị trường mở: Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ET
Khối lượng
$523Ngày kết thúc
Oct 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.A strong, rapidly intensifying El Niño event currently drives trader expectations for September 2026 global temperatures, with weekly Niño 3.4 anomalies reaching +2.6°C by late August and models projecting a very strong peak (over 90% chance of +2.0°C or greater) in October–December. This builds on background anthropogenic warming and follows 2024 as the record warmest year and 2025 among the top three, with El Niño’s lagged influence on atmospheric temperatures expected to elevate late-2026 monthly values. Market-implied odds favor second-hottest (57%) over first (36%) or third (25.5%) due to the event’s timing and strength relative to historical analogs, though internal variability and dataset differences introduce uncertainty in exact September ranking ahead of official NOAA and NASA releases.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Khối lượng
$523Ngày kết thúc
Oct 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...A strong, rapidly intensifying El Niño event currently drives trader expectations for September 2026 global temperatures, with weekly Niño 3.4 anomalies reaching +2.6°C by late August and models projecting a very strong peak (over 90% chance of +2.0°C or greater) in October–December. This builds on background anthropogenic warming and follows 2024 as the record warmest year and 2025 among the top three, with El Niño’s lagged influence on atmospheric temperatures expected to elevate late-2026 monthly values. Market-implied odds favor second-hottest (57%) over first (36%) or third (25.5%) due to the event’s timing and strength relative to historical analogs, though internal variability and dataset differences introduce uncertainty in exact September ranking ahead of official NOAA and NASA releases.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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