The closely matched market-implied odds near 1.3–1.5 °C for September 2026 reflect uncertainty over how quickly the rapidly strengthening El Niño will boost global mean surface temperatures above the long-term anthropogenic trend. Niño 3.4 anomalies have already reached +1.8 to +2.7 °C, with models projecting a potential record peak near +3.5–4.0 °C by November, though the global atmospheric response typically lags peak Pacific SSTs by several months. Early September observations show daily anomalies near +1.0 °C versus recent baselines, consistent with record or near-record warmth for the month, yet internal variability, measurement differences across datasets, and the exact timing of intensification introduce meaningful spread. Official monthly analyses from NOAA, NASA GISS, and Berkeley Earth expected in coming weeks will clarify positioning within the bins.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtSeptember 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
September 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
>1.49ºC 50%
1.35–1.39ºC 50%
1.40–1.44ºC 50%
1.45–1.49ºC 50%
MỚI
MỚI
Oct 9, 2026
<1.30ºC
49%
1.30–1.34ºC
49%
1.35–1.39ºC
50%
1.40–1.44ºC
50%
1.45–1.49ºC
50%
>1.49ºC
50%
>1.49ºC 50%
1.35–1.39ºC 50%
1.40–1.44ºC 50%
1.45–1.49ºC 50%
MỚI
MỚI
Oct 9, 2026
<1.30ºC
$0 KL.
49%
1.30–1.34ºC
$0 KL.
49%
1.35–1.39ºC
$0 KL.
50%
1.40–1.44ºC
$0 KL.
50%
1.45–1.49ºC
$0 KL.
50%
>1.49ºC
$0 KL.
50%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.The closely matched market-implied odds near 1.3–1.5 °C for September 2026 reflect uncertainty over how quickly the rapidly strengthening El Niño will boost global mean surface temperatures above the long-term anthropogenic trend. Niño 3.4 anomalies have already reached +1.8 to +2.7 °C, with models projecting a potential record peak near +3.5–4.0 °C by November, though the global atmospheric response typically lags peak Pacific SSTs by several months. Early September observations show daily anomalies near +1.0 °C versus recent baselines, consistent with record or near-record warmth for the month, yet internal variability, measurement differences across datasets, and the exact timing of intensification introduce meaningful spread. Official monthly analyses from NOAA, NASA GISS, and Berkeley Earth expected in coming weeks will clarify positioning within the bins.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Thị trường mở: Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ET
Khối lượng
$0Ngày kết thúc
Oct 10, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.The closely matched market-implied odds near 1.3–1.5 °C for September 2026 reflect uncertainty over how quickly the rapidly strengthening El Niño will boost global mean surface temperatures above the long-term anthropogenic trend. Niño 3.4 anomalies have already reached +1.8 to +2.7 °C, with models projecting a potential record peak near +3.5–4.0 °C by November, though the global atmospheric response typically lags peak Pacific SSTs by several months. Early September observations show daily anomalies near +1.0 °C versus recent baselines, consistent with record or near-record warmth for the month, yet internal variability, measurement differences across datasets, and the exact timing of intensification introduce meaningful spread. Official monthly analyses from NOAA, NASA GISS, and Berkeley Earth expected in coming weeks will clarify positioning within the bins.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Khối lượng
$0Ngày kết thúc
Oct 10, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched market-implied odds near 1.3–1.5 °C for September 2026 reflect uncertainty over how quickly the rapidly strengthening El Niño will boost global mean surface temperatures above the long-term anthropogenic trend. Niño 3.4 anomalies have already reached +1.8 to +2.7 °C, with models projecting a potential record peak near +3.5–4.0 °C by November, though the global atmospheric response typically lags peak Pacific SSTs by several months. Early September observations show daily anomalies near +1.0 °C versus recent baselines, consistent with record or near-record warmth for the month, yet internal variability, measurement differences across datasets, and the exact timing of intensification introduce meaningful spread. Official monthly analyses from NOAA, NASA GISS, and Berkeley Earth expected in coming weeks will clarify positioning within the bins.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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