Recent observations show the equatorial Pacific already at very strong El Niño levels, with weekly Niño 3.4 anomalies near +2.6°C as of late August 2026 and continued warming in the eastern Pacific. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center and IRI multi-model ensembles assign greater than 90% probability of a peak at or above +2.0°C during fall and winter 2026-27, with the event expected to crest between October–December and November–January. Model consensus is unusually tight, reflecting strong ocean-atmosphere coupling and persistence odds near 97% into early spring 2027. This observed trajectory and forecast alignment underpin trader consensus on a super El Niño outcome. Residual uncertainty stems from the potential for faster-than-expected decay after peak or minor variations in index definitions such as RONI versus conventional Niño 3.4.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWill there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?
Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?
94% khả năng
MỚI
MỚI
Mar 31, 2027
94% khả năng
MỚI
MỚI
Mar 31, 2027
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.Recent observations show the equatorial Pacific already at very strong El Niño levels, with weekly Niño 3.4 anomalies near +2.6°C as of late August 2026 and continued warming in the eastern Pacific. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center and IRI multi-model ensembles assign greater than 90% probability of a peak at or above +2.0°C during fall and winter 2026-27, with the event expected to crest between October–December and November–January. Model consensus is unusually tight, reflecting strong ocean-atmosphere coupling and persistence odds near 97% into early spring 2027. This observed trajectory and forecast alignment underpin trader consensus on a super El Niño outcome. Residual uncertainty stems from the potential for faster-than-expected decay after peak or minor variations in index definitions such as RONI versus conventional Niño 3.4.
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
Thị trường mở: Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ET
Khối lượng
$7,424Ngày kết thúc
Apr 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.Recent observations show the equatorial Pacific already at very strong El Niño levels, with weekly Niño 3.4 anomalies near +2.6°C as of late August 2026 and continued warming in the eastern Pacific. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center and IRI multi-model ensembles assign greater than 90% probability of a peak at or above +2.0°C during fall and winter 2026-27, with the event expected to crest between October–December and November–January. Model consensus is unusually tight, reflecting strong ocean-atmosphere coupling and persistence odds near 97% into early spring 2027. This observed trajectory and forecast alignment underpin trader consensus on a super El Niño outcome. Residual uncertainty stems from the potential for faster-than-expected decay after peak or minor variations in index definitions such as RONI versus conventional Niño 3.4.
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
Khối lượng
$7,424Ngày kết thúc
Apr 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Recent observations show the equatorial Pacific already at very strong El Niño levels, with weekly Niño 3.4 anomalies near +2.6°C as of late August 2026 and continued warming in the eastern Pacific. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center and IRI multi-model ensembles assign greater than 90% probability of a peak at or above +2.0°C during fall and winter 2026-27, with the event expected to crest between October–December and November–January. Model consensus is unusually tight, reflecting strong ocean-atmosphere coupling and persistence odds near 97% into early spring 2027. This observed trajectory and forecast alignment underpin trader consensus on a super El Niño outcome. Residual uncertainty stems from the potential for faster-than-expected decay after peak or minor variations in index definitions such as RONI versus conventional Niño 3.4.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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