**Recent official forecasts from Argentina’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) for September 2, 2026, in the Buenos Aires area project a maximum of 21°C under mostly cloudy skies, with northwest winds in the morning shifting to northeast and minimal precipitation risk.** This baseline aligns with early-spring climatology, where average September highs typically range 18–22°C as the region transitions from winter. Trader consensus, however, centers on 22–23°C (combined ~70% implied probability), reflecting expectations of modest warming from northerly advection or reduced cloud cover that would enhance daytime solar heating. Key differentiating factors include short-term model variability in boundary-layer temperatures and wind direction: sustained northerly flow can advect warmer air from the north, potentially pushing peaks 1–2°C above guidance, while persistent cloudiness or a sharper easterly shift would cap readings nearer 21°C. Historical analogs for early September show occasional outliers above 24°C under favorable clear-sky conditions, but current ensemble guidance and the narrow spread between leading outcomes underscore genuine uncertainty around exact maximums within the 21–24°C window. Updated SMN briefings and high-resolution model runs over the next 48 hours remain the primary near-term catalysts.