Recent observational data from NSIDC and OSI SAF place mid-August 2026 Arctic sea ice extent near 7 million sq km, ninth-lowest on record, following below-average conditions driven by early melt along the Atlantic sector. Statistical projections incorporating 2007–2025 melt trajectories and current anomalies indicate a September minimum most likely near 4.4–4.6 million sq km, consistent with the market’s dominant implied probability and the post-2007 range of 4.0–5.7 million sq km. Regional contrasts, including a mid-summer slowdown in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas alongside persistent low extent in the Barents and Kara Seas, plus thicker multi-year ice retention, introduce uncertainty that could shift outcomes toward adjacent bins depending on August–September weather patterns.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
4.4-4.6m sq km 64.8%
4.6-4.8m sq km 25.4%
4.2-4.4m sq km 8.4%
<4m sq km 2.5%
$70,951 KL.
$70,951 KL.
Sep 30, 2026
<4m sq km
3%
4.0-4.2m sq km
2%
4.2-4.4m sq km
8%
4.4-4.6m sq km
65%
4.6-4.8m sq km
25%
4.8-5m sq km
2%
5m+ sq km
2%
4.4-4.6m sq km 64.8%
4.6-4.8m sq km 25.4%
4.2-4.4m sq km 8.4%
<4m sq km 2.5%
$70,951 KL.
$70,951 KL.
Sep 30, 2026
<4m sq km
$31,447 KL.
3%
4.0-4.2m sq km
$6,974 KL.
2%
4.2-4.4m sq km
$3,291 KL.
8%
4.4-4.6m sq km
$3,441 KL.
65%
4.6-4.8m sq km
$7,141 KL.
25%
4.8-5m sq km
$3,833 KL.
2%
5m+ sq km
$14,825 KL.
2%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Recent observational data from NSIDC and OSI SAF place mid-August 2026 Arctic sea ice extent near 7 million sq km, ninth-lowest on record, following below-average conditions driven by early melt along the Atlantic sector. Statistical projections incorporating 2007–2025 melt trajectories and current anomalies indicate a September minimum most likely near 4.4–4.6 million sq km, consistent with the market’s dominant implied probability and the post-2007 range of 4.0–5.7 million sq km. Regional contrasts, including a mid-summer slowdown in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas alongside persistent low extent in the Barents and Kara Seas, plus thicker multi-year ice retention, introduce uncertainty that could shift outcomes toward adjacent bins depending on August–September weather patterns.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Thị trường mở: Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Khối lượng
$70,951Ngày kết thúc
Oct 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Recent observational data from NSIDC and OSI SAF place mid-August 2026 Arctic sea ice extent near 7 million sq km, ninth-lowest on record, following below-average conditions driven by early melt along the Atlantic sector. Statistical projections incorporating 2007–2025 melt trajectories and current anomalies indicate a September minimum most likely near 4.4–4.6 million sq km, consistent with the market’s dominant implied probability and the post-2007 range of 4.0–5.7 million sq km. Regional contrasts, including a mid-summer slowdown in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas alongside persistent low extent in the Barents and Kara Seas, plus thicker multi-year ice retention, introduce uncertainty that could shift outcomes toward adjacent bins depending on August–September weather patterns.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Khối lượng
$70,951Ngày kết thúc
Oct 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x2F5e3684c...Recent observational data from NSIDC and OSI SAF place mid-August 2026 Arctic sea ice extent near 7 million sq km, ninth-lowest on record, following below-average conditions driven by early melt along the Atlantic sector. Statistical projections incorporating 2007–2025 melt trajectories and current anomalies indicate a September minimum most likely near 4.4–4.6 million sq km, consistent with the market’s dominant implied probability and the post-2007 range of 4.0–5.7 million sq km. Regional contrasts, including a mid-summer slowdown in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas alongside persistent low extent in the Barents and Kara Seas, plus thicker multi-year ice retention, introduce uncertainty that could shift outcomes toward adjacent bins depending on August–September weather patterns.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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