Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 0.4% QoQ has given way to subdued momentum, with the Bank of England’s July Monetary Policy Report projecting underlying quarterly expansion near 0% in Q3 amid the Middle East conflict’s upward pressure on energy prices, which erodes real incomes and household spending. Independent forecasters surveyed by HM Treasury in August cluster around 0.1–0.2% QoQ for the quarter, reflecting weak manufacturing surveys, a softening labor market with unemployment near 5%, and Bank Rate held at 3.75%. These dynamics position the 0.2–0.3% and 0.4–0.5% bins as the market’s leading outcomes, consistent with trader consensus pricing in the energy-driven drag while acknowledging scope for services resilience or policy support. Q3 GDP data due in late October will provide the first hard test of these probabilities.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật0.2–0.3% 42%
0.4–0.5% 26%
0.0–0.1% 20%
0.6–0.7% 7.6%
$18,079 KL.
$18,079 KL.
Nov 11, 2026
Negative
6%
0.0–0.1%
20%
0.2–0.3%
42%
0.4–0.5%
26%
0.6–0.7%
8%
0.8–0.9%
2%
1.0%+
2%
0.2–0.3% 42%
0.4–0.5% 26%
0.0–0.1% 20%
0.6–0.7% 7.6%
$18,079 KL.
$18,079 KL.
Nov 11, 2026
Negative
$3,915 KL.
6%
0.0–0.1%
$5,347 KL.
20%
0.2–0.3%
$6,452 KL.
42%
0.4–0.5%
$1,671 KL.
26%
0.6–0.7%
$265 KL.
8%
0.8–0.9%
$196 KL.
2%
1.0%+
$232 KL.
2%
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 0.4% QoQ has given way to subdued momentum, with the Bank of England’s July Monetary Policy Report projecting underlying quarterly expansion near 0% in Q3 amid the Middle East conflict’s upward pressure on energy prices, which erodes real incomes and household spending. Independent forecasters surveyed by HM Treasury in August cluster around 0.1–0.2% QoQ for the quarter, reflecting weak manufacturing surveys, a softening labor market with unemployment near 5%, and Bank Rate held at 3.75%. These dynamics position the 0.2–0.3% and 0.4–0.5% bins as the market’s leading outcomes, consistent with trader consensus pricing in the energy-driven drag while acknowledging scope for services resilience or policy support. Q3 GDP data due in late October will provide the first hard test of these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Thị trường mở: Aug 13, 2026, 1:43 PM ET
Khối lượng
$18,079Ngày kết thúc
Nov 12, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 13, 2026, 1:43 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 0.4% QoQ has given way to subdued momentum, with the Bank of England’s July Monetary Policy Report projecting underlying quarterly expansion near 0% in Q3 amid the Middle East conflict’s upward pressure on energy prices, which erodes real incomes and household spending. Independent forecasters surveyed by HM Treasury in August cluster around 0.1–0.2% QoQ for the quarter, reflecting weak manufacturing surveys, a softening labor market with unemployment near 5%, and Bank Rate held at 3.75%. These dynamics position the 0.2–0.3% and 0.4–0.5% bins as the market’s leading outcomes, consistent with trader consensus pricing in the energy-driven drag while acknowledging scope for services resilience or policy support. Q3 GDP data due in late October will provide the first hard test of these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Khối lượng
$18,079Ngày kết thúc
Nov 12, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 13, 2026, 1:43 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 0.4% QoQ has given way to subdued momentum, with the Bank of England’s July Monetary Policy Report projecting underlying quarterly expansion near 0% in Q3 amid the Middle East conflict’s upward pressure on energy prices, which erodes real incomes and household spending. Independent forecasters surveyed by HM Treasury in August cluster around 0.1–0.2% QoQ for the quarter, reflecting weak manufacturing surveys, a softening labor market with unemployment near 5%, and Bank Rate held at 3.75%. These dynamics position the 0.2–0.3% and 0.4–0.5% bins as the market’s leading outcomes, consistent with trader consensus pricing in the energy-driven drag while acknowledging scope for services resilience or policy support. Q3 GDP data due in late October will provide the first hard test of these probabilities.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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