The recent $5 trillion debt limit increase enacted in 2025 through the One Big Beautiful Bill Act has provided substantial borrowing headroom, with outstanding debt near $40 trillion as of September 2026. Projections from the Bipartisan Policy Center and others place the next statutory limit contact in spring or summer 2027, followed by six to nine months of Treasury extraordinary measures that extend the X-date well beyond 2027. Congress has consistently resolved prior standoffs through raises or suspensions before any payment failure, and current Treasury cash management plus ongoing debt operations reinforce market expectations of continuity. A default by end-2026 would require an unprecedented breakdown in legislative processes or sudden fiscal shock far beyond baseline forecasts.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtUS defaults on debt by 2027?
US defaults on debt by 2027?
3% khả năng
$18,051 KL.
$18,051 KL.
Dec 30, 2026
3% khả năng
$18,051 KL.
$18,051 KL.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.The recent $5 trillion debt limit increase enacted in 2025 through the One Big Beautiful Bill Act has provided substantial borrowing headroom, with outstanding debt near $40 trillion as of September 2026. Projections from the Bipartisan Policy Center and others place the next statutory limit contact in spring or summer 2027, followed by six to nine months of Treasury extraordinary measures that extend the X-date well beyond 2027. Congress has consistently resolved prior standoffs through raises or suspensions before any payment failure, and current Treasury cash management plus ongoing debt operations reinforce market expectations of continuity. A default by end-2026 would require an unprecedented breakdown in legislative processes or sudden fiscal shock far beyond baseline forecasts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Thị trường mở: Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
Khối lượng
$18,051Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.The recent $5 trillion debt limit increase enacted in 2025 through the One Big Beautiful Bill Act has provided substantial borrowing headroom, with outstanding debt near $40 trillion as of September 2026. Projections from the Bipartisan Policy Center and others place the next statutory limit contact in spring or summer 2027, followed by six to nine months of Treasury extraordinary measures that extend the X-date well beyond 2027. Congress has consistently resolved prior standoffs through raises or suspensions before any payment failure, and current Treasury cash management plus ongoing debt operations reinforce market expectations of continuity. A default by end-2026 would require an unprecedented breakdown in legislative processes or sudden fiscal shock far beyond baseline forecasts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Khối lượng
$18,051Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...The recent $5 trillion debt limit increase enacted in 2025 through the One Big Beautiful Bill Act has provided substantial borrowing headroom, with outstanding debt near $40 trillion as of September 2026. Projections from the Bipartisan Policy Center and others place the next statutory limit contact in spring or summer 2027, followed by six to nine months of Treasury extraordinary measures that extend the X-date well beyond 2027. Congress has consistently resolved prior standoffs through raises or suspensions before any payment failure, and current Treasury cash management plus ongoing debt operations reinforce market expectations of continuity. A default by end-2026 would require an unprecedented breakdown in legislative processes or sudden fiscal shock far beyond baseline forecasts.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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