Xi Jinping’s consolidated authority within the Chinese Communist Party and military, reinforced by extensive purges of senior officials since 2022, underpins the near-certain trader view that he will remain in power through the end of 2026. With the 21st Party Congress scheduled for late 2027, recent reporting shows preparations focused on extending his leadership into a fourth term rather than any transition, as loyalists fill key posts and no designated successor has emerged. Unverified health claims circulated in early September 2026 but conflict with his documented public schedule and travel. This environment leaves little room for abrupt removal absent a major internal rupture. Even at such elevated odds, a sudden medical event or unprecedented elite realignment before year-end could still shift outcomes.