Recent July CPI data at 0.5% year-over-year, below expectations, alongside core inflation near 0.9%, has shaped trader views for August amid ongoing weakness in domestic demand. Food prices remain in deflation, driven by ample pork supplies and soft consumption, while housing and rent components continue to exert downward pressure due to the property sector adjustment. Moderating energy costs after earlier global disruptions and fading policy effects from trade-in programs have limited upward momentum, keeping most forecasts clustered near 0.6-1.0%. August PMI readings showing contractionary new orders reinforce subdued price pressures. These factors sustain a tight contest between the 0.5-0.6% and 0.7-0.8% bands, with separation likely hinging on the National Bureau of Statistics release and any late-month shifts in commodity or consumption indicators.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於0.5% - 0.6% 38%
0.7% - 0.8% 36%
0.9%+ 21.7%
0.3% - 0.4% 8.4%
$19,709 交易量
$19,709 交易量
≤0.2%
3%
0.3% - 0.4%
8%
0.5% - 0.6%
38%
0.7% - 0.8%
36%
0.9%+
22%
0.5% - 0.6% 38%
0.7% - 0.8% 36%
0.9%+ 21.7%
0.3% - 0.4% 8.4%
$19,709 交易量
$19,709 交易量
≤0.2%
3%
0.3% - 0.4%
8%
0.5% - 0.6%
38%
0.7% - 0.8%
36%
0.9%+
22%
This market will resolve according to the number the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by during the 12-month period ending August 2026 (% change from the same month in the previous year) according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for August 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently scheduled to be released in September 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for August 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Index in August 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
市場開放時間: Aug 10, 2026, 4:28 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the number the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by during the 12-month period ending August 2026 (% change from the same month in the previous year) according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for August 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently scheduled to be released in September 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for August 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Index in August 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
Recent July CPI data at 0.5% year-over-year, below expectations, alongside core inflation near 0.9%, has shaped trader views for August amid ongoing weakness in domestic demand. Food prices remain in deflation, driven by ample pork supplies and soft consumption, while housing and rent components continue to exert downward pressure due to the property sector adjustment. Moderating energy costs after earlier global disruptions and fading policy effects from trade-in programs have limited upward momentum, keeping most forecasts clustered near 0.6-1.0%. August PMI readings showing contractionary new orders reinforce subdued price pressures. These factors sustain a tight contest between the 0.5-0.6% and 0.7-0.8% bands, with separation likely hinging on the National Bureau of Statistics release and any late-month shifts in commodity or consumption indicators.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於


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