Traders assign a 99% implied probability against the EU dissolving before 2027 due to the bloc’s deep institutional entrenchment, including binding treaties, the single market, eurozone structures, and shared regulatory frameworks that require unanimous member-state consent for fundamental change. Recent developments reinforce this view, with Bulgaria adopting the euro in early 2026, ongoing European Semester coordination on fiscal deficits, and no active Article 50-style exits or treaty-termination processes underway despite public surveys showing disillusionment and far-right electoral gains in several states. Geopolitical pressures, including energy shocks from Middle East tensions, have prompted joint policy responses rather than fragmentation. With only months remaining until 2027, realistic shifts would require unprecedented simultaneous crises such as coordinated withdrawals by multiple large members or collapse of core institutions, scenarios absent from current political calendars or primary-source announcements.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於歐盟在2027年之前解體？
歐盟在2027年之前解體？
是
1% 機率
$180,392 交易量
$180,392 交易量
2026-12-31
是
1% 機率
$180,392 交易量
$180,392 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 99% implied probability against the EU dissolving before 2027 due to the bloc’s deep institutional entrenchment, including binding treaties, the single market, eurozone structures, and shared regulatory frameworks that require unanimous member-state consent for fundamental change. Recent developments reinforce this view, with Bulgaria adopting the euro in early 2026, ongoing European Semester coordination on fiscal deficits, and no active Article 50-style exits or treaty-termination processes underway despite public surveys showing disillusionment and far-right electoral gains in several states. Geopolitical pressures, including energy shocks from Middle East tensions, have prompted joint policy responses rather than fragmentation. With only months remaining until 2027, realistic shifts would require unprecedented simultaneous crises such as coordinated withdrawals by multiple large members or collapse of core institutions, scenarios absent from current political calendars or primary-source announcements.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ET
交易量
$180,392結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 99% implied probability against the EU dissolving before 2027 due to the bloc’s deep institutional entrenchment, including binding treaties, the single market, eurozone structures, and shared regulatory frameworks that require unanimous member-state consent for fundamental change. Recent developments reinforce this view, with Bulgaria adopting the euro in early 2026, ongoing European Semester coordination on fiscal deficits, and no active Article 50-style exits or treaty-termination processes underway despite public surveys showing disillusionment and far-right electoral gains in several states. Geopolitical pressures, including energy shocks from Middle East tensions, have prompted joint policy responses rather than fragmentation. With only months remaining until 2027, realistic shifts would require unprecedented simultaneous crises such as coordinated withdrawals by multiple large members or collapse of core institutions, scenarios absent from current political calendars or primary-source announcements.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$180,392結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETTraders assign a 99% implied probability against the EU dissolving before 2027 due to the bloc’s deep institutional entrenchment, including binding treaties, the single market, eurozone structures, and shared regulatory frameworks that require unanimous member-state consent for fundamental change. Recent developments reinforce this view, with Bulgaria adopting the euro in early 2026, ongoing European Semester coordination on fiscal deficits, and no active Article 50-style exits or treaty-termination processes underway despite public surveys showing disillusionment and far-right electoral gains in several states. Geopolitical pressures, including energy shocks from Middle East tensions, have prompted joint policy responses rather than fragmentation. With only months remaining until 2027, realistic shifts would require unprecedented simultaneous crises such as coordinated withdrawals by multiple large members or collapse of core institutions, scenarios absent from current political calendars or primary-source announcements.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions