OPEC continues to operate with 11 member states and active coordination among core producers as of September 2026, following the UAE’s May exit over production quotas and capacity expansion goals amid the Iran conflict. Saudi Arabia and remaining participants have reaffirmed commitments through regular OPEC+ meetings and output decisions, demonstrating institutional continuity despite reduced membership and influence. Trader consensus at 96.9% against dissolution reflects the organization’s history of adapting to prior exits, such as those by Angola and Qatar, without formal disbandment. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include additional high-profile withdrawals, such as by Iraq, or a complete collapse in quota compliance triggered by prolonged supply disruptions, though these would require coordinated member action unlikely before year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
3% 機率
$35,205 交易量
$35,205 交易量
2026-12-31
是
3% 機率
$35,205 交易量
$35,205 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC continues to operate with 11 member states and active coordination among core producers as of September 2026, following the UAE’s May exit over production quotas and capacity expansion goals amid the Iran conflict. Saudi Arabia and remaining participants have reaffirmed commitments through regular OPEC+ meetings and output decisions, demonstrating institutional continuity despite reduced membership and influence. Trader consensus at 96.9% against dissolution reflects the organization’s history of adapting to prior exits, such as those by Angola and Qatar, without formal disbandment. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include additional high-profile withdrawals, such as by Iraq, or a complete collapse in quota compliance triggered by prolonged supply disruptions, though these would require coordinated member action unlikely before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
交易量
$35,205結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC continues to operate with 11 member states and active coordination among core producers as of September 2026, following the UAE’s May exit over production quotas and capacity expansion goals amid the Iran conflict. Saudi Arabia and remaining participants have reaffirmed commitments through regular OPEC+ meetings and output decisions, demonstrating institutional continuity despite reduced membership and influence. Trader consensus at 96.9% against dissolution reflects the organization’s history of adapting to prior exits, such as those by Angola and Qatar, without formal disbandment. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include additional high-profile withdrawals, such as by Iraq, or a complete collapse in quota compliance triggered by prolonged supply disruptions, though these would require coordinated member action unlikely before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$35,205結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETOPEC continues to operate with 11 member states and active coordination among core producers as of September 2026, following the UAE’s May exit over production quotas and capacity expansion goals amid the Iran conflict. Saudi Arabia and remaining participants have reaffirmed commitments through regular OPEC+ meetings and output decisions, demonstrating institutional continuity despite reduced membership and influence. Trader consensus at 96.9% against dissolution reflects the organization’s history of adapting to prior exits, such as those by Angola and Qatar, without formal disbandment. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include additional high-profile withdrawals, such as by Iraq, or a complete collapse in quota compliance triggered by prolonged supply disruptions, though these would require coordinated member action unlikely before year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions