Elevated inflation, running at 4.1% headline PCE and 3.4% core through mid-2026 amid energy shocks from Middle East tensions, combined with a stable labor market at 4.2% unemployment, has anchored the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% through the June and July FOMC meetings under Chair Kevin Warsh. This backdrop drives the 56% market-implied probability on "Other" outcomes, reflecting trader pricing of potential September tightening given hawkish dissents and revised SEP projections showing a 3.8% median funds rate endpoint for year-end. The 42% odds on Pause–Pause–Pause capture the Fed’s data-dependent patience and recent softening in hike expectations, while the sub-1% probability on any cut sequence underscores limited scope for easing before sustained disinflation materializes ahead of the September 15-16 decision.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Other 56%
Pause–Pause–Pause 43%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$815,312 交易量
$815,312 交易量
2026-09-15
Pause–Pause–Pause
43%
Pause–Pause–Cut
1%
Other
56%
Other 56%
Pause–Pause–Pause 43%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$815,312 交易量
$815,312 交易量
2026-09-15
Pause–Pause–Pause
$314,218 交易量
43%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$95,060 交易量
1%
Other
$350,158 交易量
56%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation, running at 4.1% headline PCE and 3.4% core through mid-2026 amid energy shocks from Middle East tensions, combined with a stable labor market at 4.2% unemployment, has anchored the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% through the June and July FOMC meetings under Chair Kevin Warsh. This backdrop drives the 56% market-implied probability on "Other" outcomes, reflecting trader pricing of potential September tightening given hawkish dissents and revised SEP projections showing a 3.8% median funds rate endpoint for year-end. The 42% odds on Pause–Pause–Pause capture the Fed’s data-dependent patience and recent softening in hike expectations, while the sub-1% probability on any cut sequence underscores limited scope for easing before sustained disinflation materializes ahead of the September 15-16 decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
市場開放時間： Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
交易量
$815,312結束日期
2026-09-16市場開放時間
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETThe FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation, running at 4.1% headline PCE and 3.4% core through mid-2026 amid energy shocks from Middle East tensions, combined with a stable labor market at 4.2% unemployment, has anchored the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% through the June and July FOMC meetings under Chair Kevin Warsh. This backdrop drives the 56% market-implied probability on "Other" outcomes, reflecting trader pricing of potential September tightening given hawkish dissents and revised SEP projections showing a 3.8% median funds rate endpoint for year-end. The 42% odds on Pause–Pause–Pause capture the Fed’s data-dependent patience and recent softening in hike expectations, while the sub-1% probability on any cut sequence underscores limited scope for easing before sustained disinflation materializes ahead of the September 15-16 decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
交易量
$815,312結束日期
2026-09-16市場開放時間
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETElevated inflation, running at 4.1% headline PCE and 3.4% core through mid-2026 amid energy shocks from Middle East tensions, combined with a stable labor market at 4.2% unemployment, has anchored the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% through the June and July FOMC meetings under Chair Kevin Warsh. This backdrop drives the 56% market-implied probability on "Other" outcomes, reflecting trader pricing of potential September tightening given hawkish dissents and revised SEP projections showing a 3.8% median funds rate endpoint for year-end. The 42% odds on Pause–Pause–Pause capture the Fed’s data-dependent patience and recent softening in hike expectations, while the sub-1% probability on any cut sequence underscores limited scope for easing before sustained disinflation materializes ahead of the September 15-16 decision.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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Frequently Asked Questions