Recent U.S. inflation readings and labor market data have shaped trader positioning in the Fed decisions market for September through December, with the Hike–Pause–Hike path holding the highest implied probability at 44.5%. Persistent price pressures above the 2% target, combined with resilient employment figures, support expectations for a September rate increase followed by a November pause and December hike. Market-implied odds reflect the gap between current Fed funds futures pricing and the central bank’s latest dot plot projections. The next FOMC meeting, scheduled for later this month, along with upcoming CPI and employment reports, remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於升息–暫停–再升息 45%
加息–加息–暫停 21%
連升三次 18%
升息–暫停–暫停 14%
$69,745 交易量
$69,745 交易量
2026-12-09
升息–暫停–再升息
45%
升息–暫停–暫停
14%
連升三次
18%
加息–加息–暫停
21%
其他
3%
升息–暫停–再升息 45%
加息–加息–暫停 21%
連升三次 18%
升息–暫停–暫停 14%
$69,745 交易量
$69,745 交易量
2026-12-09
升息–暫停–再升息
$5,555 交易量
45%
升息–暫停–暫停
$14,220 交易量
14%
連升三次
$12,369 交易量
18%
加息–加息–暫停
$14,371 交易量
21%
其他
$894 交易量
3%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent U.S. inflation readings and labor market data have shaped trader positioning in the Fed decisions market for September through December, with the Hike–Pause–Hike path holding the highest implied probability at 44.5%. Persistent price pressures above the 2% target, combined with resilient employment figures, support expectations for a September rate increase followed by a November pause and December hike. Market-implied odds reflect the gap between current Fed funds futures pricing and the central bank’s latest dot plot projections. The next FOMC meeting, scheduled for later this month, along with upcoming CPI and employment reports, remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
市場開放時間： Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
交易量
$69,745結束日期
2026-12-09市場開放時間
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETThe FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent U.S. inflation readings and labor market data have shaped trader positioning in the Fed decisions market for September through December, with the Hike–Pause–Hike path holding the highest implied probability at 44.5%. Persistent price pressures above the 2% target, combined with resilient employment figures, support expectations for a September rate increase followed by a November pause and December hike. Market-implied odds reflect the gap between current Fed funds futures pricing and the central bank’s latest dot plot projections. The next FOMC meeting, scheduled for later this month, along with upcoming CPI and employment reports, remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
交易量
$69,745結束日期
2026-12-09市場開放時間
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETRecent U.S. inflation readings and labor market data have shaped trader positioning in the Fed decisions market for September through December, with the Hike–Pause–Hike path holding the highest implied probability at 44.5%. Persistent price pressures above the 2% target, combined with resilient employment figures, support expectations for a September rate increase followed by a November pause and December hike. Market-implied odds reflect the gap between current Fed funds futures pricing and the central bank’s latest dot plot projections. The next FOMC meeting, scheduled for later this month, along with upcoming CPI and employment reports, remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions