Recent U.S.-China trade talks have established institutional channels and temporary suspensions that shape trader assessments of an agreement by year-end. The October 2025 Kuala Lumpur arrangement suspended heightened reciprocal tariffs and related measures through November 2026, with additional Chinese commitments on agricultural purchases and export controls extending into December 2026. The May 2026 Trump-Xi summit created the U.S.-China Board of Trade to negotiate reciprocal tariff reductions on roughly $30 billion in goods per side, prompting USTR to solicit public input on non-sensitive items. Subsequent Section 301 actions have stayed within agreed rate ceilings, and both governments have continued consultations without major escalation. These mechanisms, combined with scheduled follow-up negotiations, underpin the current implied probability reflected in market pricing. Late shifts in enforcement or bilateral priorities remain possible before the December 31 deadline.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於89% 機率
$241,044 交易量
$241,044 交易量
2026-12-31
89% 機率
$241,044 交易量
$241,044 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent U.S.-China trade talks have established institutional channels and temporary suspensions that shape trader assessments of an agreement by year-end. The October 2025 Kuala Lumpur arrangement suspended heightened reciprocal tariffs and related measures through November 2026, with additional Chinese commitments on agricultural purchases and export controls extending into December 2026. The May 2026 Trump-Xi summit created the U.S.-China Board of Trade to negotiate reciprocal tariff reductions on roughly $30 billion in goods per side, prompting USTR to solicit public input on non-sensitive items. Subsequent Section 301 actions have stayed within agreed rate ceilings, and both governments have continued consultations without major escalation. These mechanisms, combined with scheduled follow-up negotiations, underpin the current implied probability reflected in market pricing. Late shifts in enforcement or bilateral priorities remain possible before the December 31 deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
市場開放時間： May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ET
交易量
$241,044結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent U.S.-China trade talks have established institutional channels and temporary suspensions that shape trader assessments of an agreement by year-end. The October 2025 Kuala Lumpur arrangement suspended heightened reciprocal tariffs and related measures through November 2026, with additional Chinese commitments on agricultural purchases and export controls extending into December 2026. The May 2026 Trump-Xi summit created the U.S.-China Board of Trade to negotiate reciprocal tariff reductions on roughly $30 billion in goods per side, prompting USTR to solicit public input on non-sensitive items. Subsequent Section 301 actions have stayed within agreed rate ceilings, and both governments have continued consultations without major escalation. These mechanisms, combined with scheduled follow-up negotiations, underpin the current implied probability reflected in market pricing. Late shifts in enforcement or bilateral priorities remain possible before the December 31 deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
交易量
$241,044結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETRecent U.S.-China trade talks have established institutional channels and temporary suspensions that shape trader assessments of an agreement by year-end. The October 2025 Kuala Lumpur arrangement suspended heightened reciprocal tariffs and related measures through November 2026, with additional Chinese commitments on agricultural purchases and export controls extending into December 2026. The May 2026 Trump-Xi summit created the U.S.-China Board of Trade to negotiate reciprocal tariff reductions on roughly $30 billion in goods per side, prompting USTR to solicit public input on non-sensitive items. Subsequent Section 301 actions have stayed within agreed rate ceilings, and both governments have continued consultations without major escalation. These mechanisms, combined with scheduled follow-up negotiations, underpin the current implied probability reflected in market pricing. Late shifts in enforcement or bilateral priorities remain possible before the December 31 deadline.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions