Anthropic’s commanding 99.1% market-implied probability stems from Claude Opus 5 and related variants (Fable 5, Mythos 5) consistently topping independent agent leaderboards such as Agent Arena, SWE-bench Verified at 96%, and the Artificial Analysis Agentic Index as of late August 2026. Recent production releases of computer-use and browser tools, the Agent Skills API, and a new Model Hardware Standard framework for physical-device control have strengthened long-horizon task performance and ecosystem adoption. A late-August paper further highlighted Claude-powered automated researchers outperforming humans on alignment benchmarks. A credible, benchmark-shifting release from OpenAI, Moonshot, or another lab in the final hours before resolution remains the primary scenario that could still alter the outcome.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Anthropic 99.1%
Google <1%
Moonshot <1%
小米 <1%
$132,254 交易量
$132,254 交易量
2026-08-31
Anthropic
99%
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
小米
<1%
亞馬遜
<1%
微軟
<1%
OpenAI
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Meta
<1%
阿里巴巴
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
字節跳動
<1%
百度
<1%
Mistral
<1%
美團
<1%
Anthropic 99.1%
Google <1%
Moonshot <1%
小米 <1%
$132,254 交易量
$132,254 交易量
2026-08-31
Anthropic
$22,676 交易量
99%
$7,728 交易量
<1%
Moonshot
$8,476 交易量
<1%
小米
$1,303 交易量
<1%
亞馬遜
$515 交易量
<1%
微軟
$11,340 交易量
<1%
OpenAI
$31,030 交易量
<1%
Z.ai
$4,920 交易量
<1%
SpaceXAI
$8,515 交易量
<1%
Meta
$7,186 交易量
<1%
阿里巴巴
$7,747 交易量
<1%
DeepSeek
$2,833 交易量
<1%
MiniMax
$7,932 交易量
<1%
Nvidia
$1,388 交易量
<1%
字節跳動
$1,557 交易量
<1%
百度
$6,085 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$503 交易量
<1%
美團
$521 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s commanding 99.1% market-implied probability stems from Claude Opus 5 and related variants (Fable 5, Mythos 5) consistently topping independent agent leaderboards such as Agent Arena, SWE-bench Verified at 96%, and the Artificial Analysis Agentic Index as of late August 2026. Recent production releases of computer-use and browser tools, the Agent Skills API, and a new Model Hardware Standard framework for physical-device control have strengthened long-horizon task performance and ecosystem adoption. A late-August paper further highlighted Claude-powered automated researchers outperforming humans on alignment benchmarks. A credible, benchmark-shifting release from OpenAI, Moonshot, or another lab in the final hours before resolution remains the primary scenario that could still alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市場開放時間： Jul 20, 2026, 7:06 PM ET
交易量
$132,254結束日期
2026-09-01市場開放時間
Jul 20, 2026, 7:06 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s commanding 99.1% market-implied probability stems from Claude Opus 5 and related variants (Fable 5, Mythos 5) consistently topping independent agent leaderboards such as Agent Arena, SWE-bench Verified at 96%, and the Artificial Analysis Agentic Index as of late August 2026. Recent production releases of computer-use and browser tools, the Agent Skills API, and a new Model Hardware Standard framework for physical-device control have strengthened long-horizon task performance and ecosystem adoption. A late-August paper further highlighted Claude-powered automated researchers outperforming humans on alignment benchmarks. A credible, benchmark-shifting release from OpenAI, Moonshot, or another lab in the final hours before resolution remains the primary scenario that could still alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$132,254結束日期
2026-09-01市場開放時間
Jul 20, 2026, 7:06 PM ETAnthropic’s commanding 99.1% market-implied probability stems from Claude Opus 5 and related variants (Fable 5, Mythos 5) consistently topping independent agent leaderboards such as Agent Arena, SWE-bench Verified at 96%, and the Artificial Analysis Agentic Index as of late August 2026. Recent production releases of computer-use and browser tools, the Agent Skills API, and a new Model Hardware Standard framework for physical-device control have strengthened long-horizon task performance and ecosystem adoption. A late-August paper further highlighted Claude-powered automated researchers outperforming humans on alignment benchmarks. A credible, benchmark-shifting release from OpenAI, Moonshot, or another lab in the final hours before resolution remains the primary scenario that could still alter the outcome.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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