France's summer 2026 has delivered a dominant performance, with Météo-France data confirming a national average of 24.1°C that shatters the 2003 record by a full degree. Three extended heatwaves spanning 53 days, countless station records, and unprecedented early-season peaks drove the market-implied odds for a new all-time high to 96.7%. Traders see little room for reversal given the margin and finalized seasonal numbers through August 31. The only plausible upsets would involve last-minute revisions to the official indicator or an unusually narrow definition of “summer” that excludes key weeks, though neither appears likely based on current verified reports.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於2026年夏天會是法國有史以來最熱的夏天嗎？
2026年夏天會是法國有史以來最熱的夏天嗎？
是
97% 機率
最新
最新
2026-09-30
是
97% 機率
最新
最新
2026-09-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Météo-France's official seasonal climate report, the "Bilan climatique de l'été 2026," states that meteorological summer 2026 (1 June to 31 August 2026) is the warmest summer in France in the Météo-France record, which begins in 1900, as measured by the national average temperature ("température moyenne") calculated by Météo-France. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the avoidance of doubt, summer 2026 must be the single warmest summer on record. If Météo-France reports summer 2026 as tied for warmest with a prior year, or ranks it anything other than first, this market resolves to "No".
The primary resolution source is the "Bilan climatique de l'été 2026" published by Météo-France, the French national meteorological service which is typically published in the first week of September.
If the seasonal report has not been published by September 30, 2026, this market may alternatively resolve using the equivalent statement on the Météo-France seasonal summaries page (https://meteofrance.fr/actualite/publications/2026-les-bilans-climatiques) or in an official Météo-France press release covering the summer 2026 season.
If Météo-France has not published a summer 2026 climate summary by December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on credible reporting (e.g., Reuters, AFP, France 24) confirming whether summer 2026 is the warmest summer on record.France's summer 2026 has delivered a dominant performance, with Météo-France data confirming a national average of 24.1°C that shatters the 2003 record by a full degree. Three extended heatwaves spanning 53 days, countless station records, and unprecedented early-season peaks drove the market-implied odds for a new all-time high to 96.7%. Traders see little room for reversal given the margin and finalized seasonal numbers through August 31. The only plausible upsets would involve last-minute revisions to the official indicator or an unusually narrow definition of “summer” that excludes key weeks, though neither appears likely based on current verified reports.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Météo-France's official seasonal climate report, the "Bilan climatique de l'été 2026," states that meteorological summer 2026 (1 June to 31 August 2026) is the warmest summer in France in the Météo-France record, which begins in 1900, as measured by the national average temperature ("température moyenne") calculated by Météo-France. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the avoidance of doubt, summer 2026 must be the single warmest summer on record. If Météo-France reports summer 2026 as tied for warmest with a prior year, or ranks it anything other than first, this market resolves to "No".
The primary resolution source is the "Bilan climatique de l'été 2026" published by Météo-France, the French national meteorological service which is typically published in the first week of September.
If the seasonal report has not been published by September 30, 2026, this market may alternatively resolve using the equivalent statement on the Météo-France seasonal summaries page (https://meteofrance.fr/actualite/publications/2026-les-bilans-climatiques) or in an official Météo-France press release covering the summer 2026 season.
If Météo-France has not published a summer 2026 climate summary by December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on credible reporting (e.g., Reuters, AFP, France 24) confirming whether summer 2026 is the warmest summer on record.
The primary resolution source is the "Bilan climatique de l'été 2026" published by Météo-France, the French national meteorological service which is typically published in the first week of September.
If the seasonal report has not been published by September 30, 2026, this market may alternatively resolve using the equivalent statement on the Météo-France seasonal summaries page (https://meteofrance.fr/actualite/publications/2026-les-bilans-climatiques) or in an official Météo-France press release covering the summer 2026 season.
If Météo-France has not published a summer 2026 climate summary by December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on credible reporting (e.g., Reuters, AFP, France 24) confirming whether summer 2026 is the warmest summer on record.
市場開放時間： Aug 12, 2026, 11:18 AM ET
交易量
$1,073結束日期
2026-10-01市場開放時間
Aug 12, 2026, 11:18 AM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Météo-France's official seasonal climate report, the "Bilan climatique de l'été 2026," states that meteorological summer 2026 (1 June to 31 August 2026) is the warmest summer in France in the Météo-France record, which begins in 1900, as measured by the national average temperature ("température moyenne") calculated by Météo-France. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the avoidance of doubt, summer 2026 must be the single warmest summer on record. If Météo-France reports summer 2026 as tied for warmest with a prior year, or ranks it anything other than first, this market resolves to "No".
The primary resolution source is the "Bilan climatique de l'été 2026" published by Météo-France, the French national meteorological service which is typically published in the first week of September.
If the seasonal report has not been published by September 30, 2026, this market may alternatively resolve using the equivalent statement on the Météo-France seasonal summaries page (https://meteofrance.fr/actualite/publications/2026-les-bilans-climatiques) or in an official Météo-France press release covering the summer 2026 season.
If Météo-France has not published a summer 2026 climate summary by December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on credible reporting (e.g., Reuters, AFP, France 24) confirming whether summer 2026 is the warmest summer on record.France's summer 2026 has delivered a dominant performance, with Météo-France data confirming a national average of 24.1°C that shatters the 2003 record by a full degree. Three extended heatwaves spanning 53 days, countless station records, and unprecedented early-season peaks drove the market-implied odds for a new all-time high to 96.7%. Traders see little room for reversal given the margin and finalized seasonal numbers through August 31. The only plausible upsets would involve last-minute revisions to the official indicator or an unusually narrow definition of “summer” that excludes key weeks, though neither appears likely based on current verified reports.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Météo-France's official seasonal climate report, the "Bilan climatique de l'été 2026," states that meteorological summer 2026 (1 June to 31 August 2026) is the warmest summer in France in the Météo-France record, which begins in 1900, as measured by the national average temperature ("température moyenne") calculated by Météo-France. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the avoidance of doubt, summer 2026 must be the single warmest summer on record. If Météo-France reports summer 2026 as tied for warmest with a prior year, or ranks it anything other than first, this market resolves to "No".
The primary resolution source is the "Bilan climatique de l'été 2026" published by Météo-France, the French national meteorological service which is typically published in the first week of September.
If the seasonal report has not been published by September 30, 2026, this market may alternatively resolve using the equivalent statement on the Météo-France seasonal summaries page (https://meteofrance.fr/actualite/publications/2026-les-bilans-climatiques) or in an official Météo-France press release covering the summer 2026 season.
If Météo-France has not published a summer 2026 climate summary by December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on credible reporting (e.g., Reuters, AFP, France 24) confirming whether summer 2026 is the warmest summer on record.
The primary resolution source is the "Bilan climatique de l'été 2026" published by Météo-France, the French national meteorological service which is typically published in the first week of September.
If the seasonal report has not been published by September 30, 2026, this market may alternatively resolve using the equivalent statement on the Météo-France seasonal summaries page (https://meteofrance.fr/actualite/publications/2026-les-bilans-climatiques) or in an official Météo-France press release covering the summer 2026 season.
If Météo-France has not published a summer 2026 climate summary by December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on credible reporting (e.g., Reuters, AFP, France 24) confirming whether summer 2026 is the warmest summer on record.
交易量
$1,073結束日期
2026-10-01市場開放時間
Aug 12, 2026, 11:18 AM ETFrance's summer 2026 has delivered a dominant performance, with Météo-France data confirming a national average of 24.1°C that shatters the 2003 record by a full degree. Three extended heatwaves spanning 53 days, countless station records, and unprecedented early-season peaks drove the market-implied odds for a new all-time high to 96.7%. Traders see little room for reversal given the margin and finalized seasonal numbers through August 31. The only plausible upsets would involve last-minute revisions to the official indicator or an unusually narrow definition of “summer” that excludes key weeks, though neither appears likely based on current verified reports.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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