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Precipitation in London in August?

icon for Precipitation in London in August?

Precipitation in London in August?

<30mm 85%

30-40mm 16.0%

70-80mm 13.7%

80mm+ 2.8%

Polymarket

$10,509 交易量

<30mm 85%

30-40mm 16.0%

70-80mm 13.7%

80mm+ 2.8%

Polymarket

$10,509 交易量

<30mm

$1,261 交易量

92%

30-40mm

$748 交易量

16%

40-50mm

$505 交易量

6%

50-60mm

$537 交易量

1%

60-70mm

$6,336 交易量

<1%

70-80mm

$497 交易量

7%

80mm+

$625 交易量

3%

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in August, 2026, according to the Met Office. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for August 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of August 2026 is released. If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Exceptionally low rainfall totals across London in August 2026 have driven overwhelming market consensus toward the sub-30 mm outcome. Official station records show just 12 mm accumulated for the month—only 23% of the 52 mm climatological average—reflecting persistently dry anticyclonic conditions, minimal frontal activity, and limited convective showers. This aligns with historical dry analogs such as 1995. With the month concluding on August 31, final verification by Met Office or equivalent networks is the primary remaining factor; measurement revisions or localized station discrepancies could theoretically shift totals modestly, though current data indicate such changes are unlikely to exceed the 30 mm threshold.

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in August, 2026, according to the Met Office.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for August 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of August 2026 is released.

If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$10,509
結束日期
2026-09-01
市場開放時間
Jul 28, 2026, 2:06 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in August, 2026, according to the Met Office. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for August 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of August 2026 is released. If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in August, 2026, according to the Met Office. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for August 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of August 2026 is released. If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Exceptionally low rainfall totals across London in August 2026 have driven overwhelming market consensus toward the sub-30 mm outcome. Official station records show just 12 mm accumulated for the month—only 23% of the 52 mm climatological average—reflecting persistently dry anticyclonic conditions, minimal frontal activity, and limited convective showers. This aligns with historical dry analogs such as 1995. With the month concluding on August 31, final verification by Met Office or equivalent networks is the primary remaining factor; measurement revisions or localized station discrepancies could theoretically shift totals modestly, though current data indicate such changes are unlikely to exceed the 30 mm threshold.

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in August, 2026, according to the Met Office.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for August 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of August 2026 is released.

If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$10,509
結束日期
2026-09-01
市場開放時間
Jul 28, 2026, 2:06 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in August, 2026, according to the Met Office. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for August 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of August 2026 is released. If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"Precipitation in London in August?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "<30mm" at 92%, followed by "30-40mm" at 16%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 92¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 92% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Precipitation in London in August?" has generated $10.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 28, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Precipitation in London in August?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Precipitation in London in August?" is "<30mm" at 92%, meaning the market assigns a 92% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "30-40mm" at 16%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Precipitation in London in August?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.