A strengthening El Niño event, now approaching super-El Niño intensity in the equatorial Pacific, has superimposed additional warmth on the long-term anthropogenic trend, driving August 2026 global mean surface temperatures to record levels. Early analyses from datasets such as ERA5 indicate a monthly anomaly near 1.4 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline, consistent with the market’s 99 % consensus on the 1.38–1.41 °C bin. Official agencies including Copernicus and NOAA have reported record sea-surface temperatures and widespread heat anomalies, with model runs and preliminary observations converging tightly on this narrow range. Revisions in final homogenized datasets, differences between surface and lower-tropospheric metrics, or late adjustments to the El Niño index could still shift the precise value, though current observational consensus leaves little room for outcomes outside the leading bin.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于2026年8月温度升高（ ºC ） （更高的罢工）
2026年8月温度升高（ ºC ） （更高的罢工）
1.38–1.41ºC 99.0%
1.42–1.45ºC 1.3%
1.34–1.37ºC <1%
>1.45ºC <1%
$20,711 交易量
$20,711 交易量
2026-08-31
<1.30ºC
<1%
1.30–1.33ºC
<1%
1.34–1.37ºC
<1%
1.38–1.41ºC
99%
1.42–1.45ºC
1%
>1.45ºC
<1%
1.38–1.41ºC 99.0%
1.42–1.45ºC 1.3%
1.34–1.37ºC <1%
>1.45ºC <1%
$20,711 交易量
$20,711 交易量
2026-08-31
<1.30ºC
$657 交易量
<1%
1.30–1.33ºC
$1,462 交易量
<1%
1.34–1.37ºC
$3,134 交易量
<1%
1.38–1.41ºC
$4,676 交易量
99%
1.42–1.45ºC
$9,252 交易量
1%
>1.45ºC
$1,531 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A strengthening El Niño event, now approaching super-El Niño intensity in the equatorial Pacific, has superimposed additional warmth on the long-term anthropogenic trend, driving August 2026 global mean surface temperatures to record levels. Early analyses from datasets such as ERA5 indicate a monthly anomaly near 1.4 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline, consistent with the market’s 99 % consensus on the 1.38–1.41 °C bin. Official agencies including Copernicus and NOAA have reported record sea-surface temperatures and widespread heat anomalies, with model runs and preliminary observations converging tightly on this narrow range. Revisions in final homogenized datasets, differences between surface and lower-tropospheric metrics, or late adjustments to the El Niño index could still shift the precise value, though current observational consensus leaves little room for outcomes outside the leading bin.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
市场开放时间： Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ET
交易量
$20,711结束日期
2026-09-01市场开放时间
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A strengthening El Niño event, now approaching super-El Niño intensity in the equatorial Pacific, has superimposed additional warmth on the long-term anthropogenic trend, driving August 2026 global mean surface temperatures to record levels. Early analyses from datasets such as ERA5 indicate a monthly anomaly near 1.4 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline, consistent with the market’s 99 % consensus on the 1.38–1.41 °C bin. Official agencies including Copernicus and NOAA have reported record sea-surface temperatures and widespread heat anomalies, with model runs and preliminary observations converging tightly on this narrow range. Revisions in final homogenized datasets, differences between surface and lower-tropospheric metrics, or late adjustments to the El Niño index could still shift the precise value, though current observational consensus leaves little room for outcomes outside the leading bin.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
交易量
$20,711结束日期
2026-09-01市场开放时间
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETA strengthening El Niño event, now approaching super-El Niño intensity in the equatorial Pacific, has superimposed additional warmth on the long-term anthropogenic trend, driving August 2026 global mean surface temperatures to record levels. Early analyses from datasets such as ERA5 indicate a monthly anomaly near 1.4 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline, consistent with the market’s 99 % consensus on the 1.38–1.41 °C bin. Official agencies including Copernicus and NOAA have reported record sea-surface temperatures and widespread heat anomalies, with model runs and preliminary observations converging tightly on this narrow range. Revisions in final homogenized datasets, differences between surface and lower-tropospheric metrics, or late adjustments to the El Niño index could still shift the precise value, though current observational consensus leaves little room for outcomes outside the leading bin.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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