A rapidly intensifying El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperatures already exceeding +2.5°C and models projecting a potential record peak near +3.5–4.0°C by late 2026, forms the dominant driver elevating September 2026 global mean temperature anomaly expectations. Early-month observations place the running anomaly near or above recent September records, while ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and others indicate a central estimate around 1.6–1.8°C above pre-industrial levels, with wide spreads reflecting remaining days, model divergence, and natural variability. This aligns with year-to-date 2026 warmth near 1.48°C and supports elevated odds across the 1.30–1.49°C bins amid ongoing uncertainty in final monthly averaging.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于2026年9月温度升高(ºC)
2026年9月温度升高(ºC)
<1.30ºC 50%
1.30–1.34ºC 50%
1.35–1.39ºC 50%
1.40–1.44ºC 50%
最新
最新
2026-10-09
<1.30ºC
50%
1.30–1.34ºC
50%
1.35–1.39ºC
50%
1.40–1.44ºC
50%
1.45–1.49ºC
50%
>1.49ºC
50%
<1.30ºC 50%
1.30–1.34ºC 50%
1.35–1.39ºC 50%
1.40–1.44ºC 50%
最新
最新
2026-10-09
<1.30ºC
$0 交易量
50%
1.30–1.34ºC
$0 交易量
50%
1.35–1.39ºC
$0 交易量
50%
1.40–1.44ºC
$0 交易量
50%
1.45–1.49ºC
$0 交易量
50%
>1.49ºC
$0 交易量
50%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A rapidly intensifying El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperatures already exceeding +2.5°C and models projecting a potential record peak near +3.5–4.0°C by late 2026, forms the dominant driver elevating September 2026 global mean temperature anomaly expectations. Early-month observations place the running anomaly near or above recent September records, while ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and others indicate a central estimate around 1.6–1.8°C above pre-industrial levels, with wide spreads reflecting remaining days, model divergence, and natural variability. This aligns with year-to-date 2026 warmth near 1.48°C and supports elevated odds across the 1.30–1.49°C bins amid ongoing uncertainty in final monthly averaging.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
市场开放时间： Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-10-10市场开放时间
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A rapidly intensifying El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperatures already exceeding +2.5°C and models projecting a potential record peak near +3.5–4.0°C by late 2026, forms the dominant driver elevating September 2026 global mean temperature anomaly expectations. Early-month observations place the running anomaly near or above recent September records, while ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and others indicate a central estimate around 1.6–1.8°C above pre-industrial levels, with wide spreads reflecting remaining days, model divergence, and natural variability. This aligns with year-to-date 2026 warmth near 1.48°C and supports elevated odds across the 1.30–1.49°C bins amid ongoing uncertainty in final monthly averaging.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-10-10市场开放时间
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETA rapidly intensifying El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperatures already exceeding +2.5°C and models projecting a potential record peak near +3.5–4.0°C by late 2026, forms the dominant driver elevating September 2026 global mean temperature anomaly expectations. Early-month observations place the running anomaly near or above recent September records, while ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and others indicate a central estimate around 1.6–1.8°C above pre-industrial levels, with wide spreads reflecting remaining days, model divergence, and natural variability. This aligns with year-to-date 2026 warmth near 1.48°C and supports elevated odds across the 1.30–1.49°C bins amid ongoing uncertainty in final monthly averaging.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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