A strengthening El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperatures already near or above +1.8°C and models favoring a very strong event through fall, stands as the dominant factor shaping trader consensus for September 2026 U.S. tornado counts. This Pacific pattern typically enhances subtropical jet flow and vertical wind shear while suppressing moisture transport and instability across the central and eastern CONUS, historically correlating with reduced tornado frequency relative to La Niña or neutral years. Widespread drought, above-normal temperature outlooks for the Plains and Southeast, and suppressed Atlantic tropical activity further limit late-season triggers such as hurricane remnants. With September climatology averaging roughly 70–80 tornadoes and recent model guidance showing limited short-term MJO influence, the tight clustering of implied probabilities around 25–74 events reflects uncertainty in how rapidly El Niño modulates early-fall severe weather patterns.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于2026年9月美国龙卷风
2026年9月美国龙卷风
50 - 74 51%
75 - 124 47%
25 - 49 46%
少于25个 42%
最新
最新
2026-10-14
少于25个
42%
25 - 49
46%
50 - 74
51%
75 - 124
47%
125个或更多
41%
50 - 74 51%
75 - 124 47%
25 - 49 46%
少于25个 42%
最新
最新
2026-10-14
少于25个
$0 交易量
42%
25 - 49
$0 交易量
46%
50 - 74
$0 交易量
51%
75 - 124
$0 交易量
47%
125个或更多
$0 交易量
41%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.A strengthening El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperatures already near or above +1.8°C and models favoring a very strong event through fall, stands as the dominant factor shaping trader consensus for September 2026 U.S. tornado counts. This Pacific pattern typically enhances subtropical jet flow and vertical wind shear while suppressing moisture transport and instability across the central and eastern CONUS, historically correlating with reduced tornado frequency relative to La Niña or neutral years. Widespread drought, above-normal temperature outlooks for the Plains and Southeast, and suppressed Atlantic tropical activity further limit late-season triggers such as hurricane remnants. With September climatology averaging roughly 70–80 tornadoes and recent model guidance showing limited short-term MJO influence, the tight clustering of implied probabilities around 25–74 events reflects uncertainty in how rapidly El Niño modulates early-fall severe weather patterns.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
市场开放时间： Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-10-15市场开放时间
Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.A strengthening El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperatures already near or above +1.8°C and models favoring a very strong event through fall, stands as the dominant factor shaping trader consensus for September 2026 U.S. tornado counts. This Pacific pattern typically enhances subtropical jet flow and vertical wind shear while suppressing moisture transport and instability across the central and eastern CONUS, historically correlating with reduced tornado frequency relative to La Niña or neutral years. Widespread drought, above-normal temperature outlooks for the Plains and Southeast, and suppressed Atlantic tropical activity further limit late-season triggers such as hurricane remnants. With September climatology averaging roughly 70–80 tornadoes and recent model guidance showing limited short-term MJO influence, the tight clustering of implied probabilities around 25–74 events reflects uncertainty in how rapidly El Niño modulates early-fall severe weather patterns.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-10-15市场开放时间
Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ETA strengthening El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperatures already near or above +1.8°C and models favoring a very strong event through fall, stands as the dominant factor shaping trader consensus for September 2026 U.S. tornado counts. This Pacific pattern typically enhances subtropical jet flow and vertical wind shear while suppressing moisture transport and instability across the central and eastern CONUS, historically correlating with reduced tornado frequency relative to La Niña or neutral years. Widespread drought, above-normal temperature outlooks for the Plains and Southeast, and suppressed Atlantic tropical activity further limit late-season triggers such as hurricane remnants. With September climatology averaging roughly 70–80 tornadoes and recent model guidance showing limited short-term MJO influence, the tight clustering of implied probabilities around 25–74 events reflects uncertainty in how rapidly El Niño modulates early-fall severe weather patterns.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题